United States and China Tariffs Will Not Benefit Anyone

Published in Kyoto Shimbun
(Japan) on 18 June 2018
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Deborah Chapin. Edited by Elizabeth Cosgriff.
Would it not take just one step to cause a full-scale confrontation?

The United States and China announced that, on July 6, they would invoke measures against each other to restrict imports. At the end of last week, the U.S. said that it would invoke sequential high tariffs of 25 percent on a list of 1,102 Chinese products, equivalent to about
$50 billion (about 5.5 trillion yen), annually. Without delay, China opposed this and announced sanction tariffs of the same scale on 659 U.S. products.

The targets of the Trump administration’s sanctions were in the high-tech field, things such as telecommunication technologies and robots. These are the fields that China’s leader, Xi Jinping, is aiming to cultivate as a national strategy. These import restrictions do not stop at correcting trade imbalances, and if this concerns a fight for supremacy in the next-generation industry, then certainly it will be difficult for either country to concede.

Since May, the U.S. and China have held ministerial meetings three times. It appeared that they would come to a compromise. However, after the U.S.-North Korea summit, the United States resumed a firm stance, as if it no longer needs to be considerate of China, which holds the power to influence North Korea. China, as well, alluded to the possibility of overriding the results of the conference, and also targeted sanctions in the areas of agriculture and energy, which are key industries providing support for the ruling Republican Party.

There is still time until the sanctions are invoked, and it could be that the two countries plan to seek a compromise. However, if they actually do battle with high tariffs, then it is inevitable that the price of imported goods will rise, and the countries’ own businesses and consumers will take the hit. The U.S. and China are the world’s number one and two economic powers. The mutual reliance on each other’s markets is also great. The impact would be difficult to measure. There are worries that if multinational corporations are involved, the condition of global business could decline.

In the end, trade wars benefit no one. The U.S. and China should both avoid imposing sanctions, and should attempt to resolve the issue through dialogue.

The United States claimed that China’s infringement of intellectual property rights was a reason for the sanctions. On the other hand, instead of joining hands with countries of the Group of Seven leading industrial nations who have the same problem, the U.S. included them in the countries it targeted with steel import restrictions, and deepened the fissure. While pressing China to adhere to the rules, the United States itself moved quickly to self-protectionism, contrary to international rules. Thus, it drew criticism from Europe and others, and invited a World Trade Organization case against the United States.

President Donald Trump relies on domestic law, but a position that does not respect international order gives an excuse to justify the conduct of other authoritarian states, damaging the United States’ credibility. There is also a problem with a negotiating technique that exerts pressure for concessions on allied countries that are joined together for security purposes.

Japan is in danger of seeing its key industries, like automobile manufacturing, be a target for tariffs. In this case, we must join with countries that respect the rules and face this resolutely.






互いに一歩もひかず、全面対決に突き進むというのだろうか。
 米国と中国が、それぞれ相手からの輸入を制限する措置を7月6日に発動すると発表した。先週末、米国が年間約500億ドル(約5兆5千億円)相当の中国製品1102品目に25%の高関税を順次課すと表明。中国もすかさず対抗し、同規模にあたる米国製品659品目への制裁関税案を公表した。
 トランプ米政権は制裁の対象に情報通信技術関連製品やロボットなどのハイテク分野を挙げた。これらの産業は、中国の習近平指導部が国家戦略として育成を目指す分野だ。輸入制限が貿易不均衡の是正にとどまらず、次世代産業の覇権争いに関わるとなれば、両国とも譲歩は難しくなろう。
 米中は5月以降、閣僚級協議を3回行い、歩み寄るかにみえた。しかし米朝首脳会談後、北朝鮮に影響力をもつ中国に配慮する必要がなくなったのか、米国は強硬姿勢に回帰。中国も協議の成果を無効にする可能性に言及し、米政権与党・共和党の票田にとって重要産業である農業やエネルギー分野を今回の制裁対象に加えた。
 発動日までには時間があり、互いに落としどころを探るつもりなのかもしれない。ただ、実際に高関税を掛け合えば、輸入品の価格上昇でそれぞれの企業や消費者が打撃を受けるのは必至だ。米中は世界1位と2位の経済大国であり、互いの市場への依存度も高く、影響の大きさは測りがたい。多国籍企業などを巻き込んで世界の景気を冷やす懸念がある。
 貿易戦争は結局、誰の利益にもならない。互いに制裁の発動を避け、対話で解決を図るべきだ。
 米国は制裁理由に、中国による知的財産権侵害を挙げる。一方で同じ問題意識をもつ日欧などG7構成国とは手を携えるどころか、鉄鋼輸入制限の対象国に加えて亀裂を深めている。中国にルール順守を迫りながら、米国自身が国際ルールに反し保護主義に走っていると欧州などから批判され、世界貿易機関(WTO)に提訴される事態を招いた。
 トランプ大統領は国内法に根拠があるとするが、国際秩序を重んじない姿勢は、他の強権国家にも言動を正当化する口実を与え、米国の信用を損なうのではないか。安全保障を絡めて同盟国に譲歩を迫る交渉手法にも問題がある。
 日本は、基幹産業の自動車などを標的にされる恐れがある。ルールを尊重する国々と立場を共有し、毅然(きぜん)と臨まねばならない。
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