The Danger in the American Presidential Election Policy Debate Can’t Be Concealed

Published in Nihon Keizai Shimbun (Nikkei)
(Japan) on 2 July 2019
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Eric Stimson. Edited by Helaine Schweitzer.
The policy debates ahead of the 2020 U.S. presidential election have gotten serious. President Donald Trump of the majority Republican Party has formally announced his intention to seek reelection, and the minority Democratic Party has begun televised debates.

It’s not just the “America First” inward-looking commercial and immigration policies of Trump at issue; the Democratic candidates’ populist pandering with health and environmental policies are also dubious. These might become a dangerous argument that plants seeds of trouble for the future of the superpower.

Trump, who dominated the 2016 election with his slogan “Make America Great Again,” now has a new one: “Keep America Great.” He will return to his original isolationist theme of protectionism and restricting immigration to fire up his base of white voters and the lower and middle classes.

We do not want American policies to be any more warped than this merely to garner popular support for the president. His supporters may be gratified if he targets trade and immigration, and restricts the flow of things and people, but it will retard the growth of the American economy, and the American people will eventually pick up the tab.

It’s not just the withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Paris climate agreement – it is troubling that Trump keeps turning his back on alliances with many countries. Moreover, he should strictly refrain from desperately trying to score points on diplomacy and security matters by tolerating North Korea’s incomplete denuclearization process, and provoking his opponent, Iran.

Meanwhile, more than 20 Democratic presidential candidates have put themselves forward to take back the administration. The moderate former vice president, Joe Biden, is in the lead, but leftists like Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are increasingly making themselves felt, and it could turn into a fierce contest.

The problem is that the left’s promises are unrealistic. An enormous amount of money is needed to realize universal health care, free public universities and the climate change policies known as the “Green New Deal.”

If Democrats target the upper class and large industry as their enemy and raise taxes and strengthen regulations too much, they may impede the recovery of the American economy. The proposal being floated to break up the big American information technology firms like Google and Apple is also troubling.

The outcome of the 2020 U.S. presidential election will have a great impact on the world. A situation where both parties refuse to acknowledge reality and tilt toward extreme ideas is worrying. We long for a debate that would revive the policies America really needs.


2020年の米大統領選に向けた政策論争が本格化してきた。再選を目指す与党・共和党のトランプ大統領が出馬を正式に表明し、野党・民主党の大統領候補によるテレビ討論会も始まった。

米国第一の内向きな通商・移民政策を続けるトランプ氏だけでなく、大衆迎合的な医療・環境政策を訴える民主党候補にも首をかしげる。超大国の将来に禍根を残す危うい論戦になりかねない。

「偉大な米国の復活」を掲げて16年の大統領選を制したトランプ氏は、「偉大な米国の継続」を新たなスローガンに据えた。保護貿易や移民制限など、孤立主義の原点に立ち返り、支持基盤の白人や低中所得層を鼓舞する。

大統領の人気取りのために、米国の政策をこれ以上ゆがめるのはやめてほしい。貿易や移民をやり玉に挙げて、モノやヒトの流れを制限すれば、支持者は留飲を下げるかもしれない。だが、米経済の成長は妨げられ、そのツケがいずれ米国民に回ってくる。

環太平洋経済連携協定(TPP)や温暖化対策の国際枠組み「パリ協定」などからの離脱にとどまらず、多国間の協調体制に背を向け続けるのは困る。外交や安全保障で得点を稼ごうと焦り、北朝鮮の不完全な非核化を容認したり、対立するイランを挑発したりするのも厳に慎むべきだ。

一方の民主党からは20人以上の大統領候補が名乗りを上げ、政権奪取を目指す。中道派のジョー・バイデン前副大統領が先頭を走るが、左派のバーニー・サンダース上院議員やエリザベス・ウォーレン上院議員らの存在感も増しており、混戦になりそうだ。

問題は左派が掲げる非現実的な公約だ。国民皆保険や公立大学の無償化、「グリーン・ニューディール」と呼ばれる温暖化対策などの実現には、膨大な費用がかかる。にもかかわらず責任ある財源を示しているとは言い難い。

富裕層や大企業を敵視するあまり、行き過ぎた増税や規制を強いれば、米経済の回復そのものを阻害する恐れがある。グーグルやアップルなどを含む米大手IT(情報技術)企業の解体論が浮上しているのも気になるところだ。

米大統領選の行方は、世界に重大な影響を与える。与野党が現実を直視せず、ともに極論に傾くのは憂慮すべき事態だ。米国にとって本当に必要な政策を取り戻す論戦を期待したい。
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