Trump in Kim’s Land

Published in Folha de São Paulo
(Brazil) on 3 July 2019
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Domitila Olivé. Edited by Elizabeth Cosgriff.
The dynamic between the two leaders does not allow for greater optimism regarding a nuclear deal.

In an abrupt move, which is common in his foreign policy, President Donald Trump relaunched the negotiation of a nuclear deal with North Korea.

After the announcement, Trump became the first American president to set foot in the Asian country, which has been ruled by a bizarre Stalinist dynasty since 1948.

The act was widely symbolic and must be taken with a grain of salt. While it is obviously healthy to see decade-long adversaries armed with nuclear weapons staging gestures of understanding, it is important to highlight that the dynamic between Trump and the dictator Kim Jong Un does not leave room for excessive optimism.

This was the third encounter between the two, who almost got into a military confrontation in 2017 − when Kim sped up his ballistic missile program and demonstrated that he was close to having a weapon that, theoretically, would be able to launch a nuclear missile at the U.S.

In 2018, Trump caved and elevated the dictator to the status of his equal, in another event marked by the epithet “historical.” Pictures were spread worldwide, and promises were made. The effect did not last long.

Months later, in February of this year, both leaders disagreed about a denuclearization deal on the Korean Peninsula, which had never contained clearly defined terms.

Now, according to reports in The New York Times, the idea would be to suggest a freeze of Kim’s nuclear program, without interfering with the country’s existing arsenal of nuclear artifacts, which is estimated by specialists to contain between 20 and 60 warheads.

Trump’s most bellicose adviser, John Bolton, dismissed the report. But he has been racking up recent defeats, such as the situation involving the currently much more unstable nuclear crisis with Iran.

If this claim that negotiations have resumed is confirmed, it would be quite a victory for Kim, whose ascendancy over his emaciated public depends on displays of power. There will surely be warmongers pointing to deals of this kind to maintain that any regime, as aberrant as it may be, can be sustained if it has access to bombs.

The Republican president will be able to advertise that he contained the young dictator, which sounds good enough to launch his race for reelection in 2020.

Agreements to freeze arsenals do not have a good track record, historically. In 1994, Bill Clinton made the very same deal with Kim’s father, providing years of accomplishment that allowed the dictatorship to pave the way for its first nuclear test, in 2006. A hypothetical new deal like this would better serve Pyongyang than regional peace, let alone world peace.



Dinâmica entre os líderes não permite maior otimismo quanto a acordo nuclear

Em um gesto abrupto, como é recorrente em sua política externa, o presidente Donald Trump relançou a negociação de um acordo nuclear com a Coreia do Norte.

Após o anúncio, Trump tornou-se o primeiro mandatário americano a pisar no solo do país asiático, governado por uma bizarra dinastia stalinista desde 1948.

O ato foi largamente simbólico e deve ser observado com a devida cautela. Se obviamente é salutar ver adversários de décadas armados com bombas atômicas encenando gestos de entendimento, cabe ressaltar que a dinâmica entre Trump e o ditador Kim Jong-un não permite otimismo excessivo.

Esse foi o terceiro encontro entre os dois, que quase foram ao conflito militar em 2017 —quando Kim acelerou o seu programa de mísseis balísticos e demonstrou estar próximo de dispor de uma arma teoricamente capaz de levar uma bomba nuclear aos EUA.

Em 2018, Trump aquiesceu e elevou o déspota à qualidade de igual, em outro evento carimbado pelo epíteto de histórico. Fotos correram o mundo e promessas foram feitas. O efeito durou pouco.

Meses depois, em fevereiro deste ano, ambos os líderes discordaram sobre um acordo de desnuclearização da Península Coreana cujos termos nunca foram claros.

Agora, segundo reportou o jornal The New York Times, a ideia seria propor um congelamento do programa nuclear de Kim, sem mexer no arsenal existente de artefatos atômico da ditadura, estimado por especialistas entre 20 e 60 ogivas.

O mais belicoso assessor de Trump, John Bolton, descartou o relato. Mas ele vem colecionando derrotas recentes, como na condução da hoje muito mais instável crise nuclear com o Irã.

Se a pretensão se confirmar, estaria configurada uma vitória e tanto para Kim, cuja ascendência sobre seu emaciado público interno depende de demonstrações de força. Não faltarão belicistas a apontar acordos do gênero para sustentar que qualquer regime, por aberrante que seja, pode se manter se tiver como recorrer à bomba.

Ao republicano restaria a propaganda de que conteve o jovem ditador, o que parece de bom tamanho para a largada da disputa pela reeleição em 2020.

Propostas de congelamento de arsenal não têm bom histórico. Em 1994, Bill Clinton ofertou o mesmo ao pai de Kim e obteve anos de logro, que permitiram à ditadura pavimentar o caminho para seu primeiro teste nuclear, em 2006. Um hipotético novo acordo assim serviria melhor a Pyongyang do que à paz regional, que dirá a mundial.
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