Why Should China Be Involved in US-Russia Nuclear Negotiations?

Published in Huanqiu
(China) on 12 June 2020
by Yang Chengjun (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Enshia Li. Edited by Patricia Simoni.
Recently, U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Arms Control Marshall Billingslea stated that he has now reached an agreement with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov to discuss the issue of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, which was signed on April 8, 2010 and is due to expire on Feb. 5, 2021. He also claimed that China has been invited to participate. However, both China and Russia have made it clear that China will not participate, so what are America’s reasons for sensationalizing this issue?

America’s 5 Attempts

As Bloomberg reports, the negotiations will be held in Vienna on June 22. As for this soon-to-expire treaty, United States National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien stated that America may not necessarily need to withdraw from New START and instead hopes that China will join. However, the U.S. must first negotiate with Russia. Russia recommended that America extend New START in its current form for an additional five years in consideration of the multifaceted challenges that may arise.

The U.S. and Russia signed New START 10 years ago with the intention of limiting the number of nuclear warheads that can be held by both parties to a maximum of 1,550. This treaty is the only arms control treaty between the two nations. America’s invitation to China to join in on the negotiations, I believe, has five main motivations:

First, America desires to express “sincerity” to the international community about its attempts to reduce nuclear arms. Through these negotiations, the U.S. can offer the international community an illusory, intuitive understanding that it does not want to develop nuclear weapons.

Second, the U.S. intends to shift responsibility for the continued development of nuclear weapons to China. The U.S. can still impose this responsibility on China, regardless of China’s participation in the negotiations or opinions on the matter.

Third, the U.S. is attempting to cover up its many years of noncompliance with the agreement. Through negotiation, America intends to make every effort to cover up the continued updates and renovations it has made to its active-duty nuclear weapons. In addition, America has never ceased the research and development of new tactical nuclear weapons.

Fourth, the U.S. is attempting to divide the strategic partnership between China and Russia. America has always worried about the current strategic partnership between the two countries, because such a partnership poses the greatest threat to U.S. hegemony. The U.S. has always attempted to provoke tensions in China-Russia relations by pulling China into the discussion.

Fifth, America wants to further understand the current status of China’s nuclear development. The author has participated in three China-U.S. talks on nuclear weapons strategy and has the deep sense that America has deployed every means to glean the number of nuclear weapons China holds, China’s nuclear force deployment and its plans for future development, etc. They invited China to the talks to scope out our nuclear ability.

How Should China Respond?

On the issue of inviting China, America created the illusion in March that it intended to avoid an expensive arms race by proposing a nuclear arms control mechanism that involved the U.S., China and Russia. Actually, China has always been willing to work on nuclear arms control mechanisms with other parties under existing multilateral frameworks. With regard to nuclear disarmament, we believe that America should heed Russia’s calls to extend New START by an additional five years to further reduce the vast nuclear arsenals of the two countries and pave the way for other states to join multilateral nuclear disarmament negotiations.

China should not participate in any nuclear activities initiated by nuclear powers. China has always been on the defensive when it comes to its national defense policy, and China has always pursued an independent national security policy. China has always maintained the minimum number of nuclear weapons necessary to safeguard its national security; its nuclear capabilities are not even on the same order of magnitude as those of the U.S. and Russia. China does not compare in the number nor scale of its nuclear weapons with nuclear superpowers; it will not be the first to deploy any missile. These policies will not change. China has developed and maintained nuclear weapons only for national security, to act as a reliable counter-terrorism mechanism and to ensure that any country that dares to use nuclear weapons against China is duly punished.

I believe that the negotiations to be held in Vienna on June 22 show that the U.S. attitude on extending New START has softened. In a sense, this is a good thing.

I have four basic judgments and warnings to make about the prospects of the talks. First, the status of the United States and Russia as the world's leading nuclear powers will remain unchanged. According to Japan's Kyodo News, there were 14,480 active warheads in the world (excluding those in storage) as of June 2019, of which 6,850 are in Russia, 6,450 are in the United States, and fewer than 500 are in other countries. Thus, in the coming decades, the status of the U.S. and Russia as nuclear superpowers will not change.

Second, neither country will hamper the development of new nuclear weapons. In recent years, the United States has withdrawn from a number of arms control treaties, including the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty and the Open Skies Treaty. Although Russia has stated its willingness to extend the terms of New START, the United States has not yet responded. In reality, the two countries have never stopped improving their active-duty nuclear weapons, such as the RT-2PM2 Topol-M and LGM-30 Minuteman intercontinental ballistic nuclear missiles, nor have they ceased the development of smaller, low-pollution tactical nuclear weapons.

Third, the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons continues to fall. The development of nuclear weapons is no longer an out-of-reach, state-of-the-art technology; even small and medium-sized countries can manufacture them. The treaties and agreements governing their development have been cut short and dismantled, leading to the escalation of a global nuclear arms race. The nuclear threat facing the world continues to rise.

Fourth, we must guard against the use of nuclear technologies and the potential of nuclear war with utmost vigilance. With regard to the increasingly tense, increasingly serious nuclear weapon situation worldwide, the international community must staunchly oppose extreme criminal acts as crimes against humanity, crimes which will irreversibly pollute the common environment of mankind and endanger future generations.

The author is an expert on Chinese nuclear strategy, nuclear arms control and missile technology.


杨承军:美俄核谈判,中国凭什么被参加

近日,美国军备管控总统特使马歇尔·比林斯利表示,他已与俄罗斯副外长里亚布科夫达成协议,将在本月晚些时候就2010年4月8日签署、将于2021年2月5日到期的《新削减战略武器条约》问题进行会谈。他还声称,已经邀请了中国参加。不过,中俄已经明确表态中国不会参加。那么,美国炒作这个议题,到底意欲何为?

美国的五个企图

据美国彭博社报道,此次磋商将于6月22日在维也纳举行。而对于这个即将到期的条约,美国总统国家安全事务助理奥布莱恩曾表示,美国未必退出《新削减战略武器条约》,并希望中国加入这项条约,但首先要与俄罗斯开展谈判;俄罗斯则建议美国将《新削减战略武器条约》以现有形式再延长5年,以考虑所面临挑战的多方面问题。

10年前美俄签署《新削减战略武器条约》,最初的宗旨是为了限制两国保有的核弹头数量,规定各自控制在1550枚以内,该条约是两国间目前唯一的军控条约。那么,这次美国提出邀请中国参加,笔者认为有五个方面目的和企图:


第一,为了向国际社会显示其削减战略武器的“诚意”。通过这次会谈,给国际社会造成美国主观上“并不想发展核武器”的直觉和错觉。

第二,为了把自身继续发展核武器的责任推向中国。不管中国是否参加这次会谈,不管中国做出何种表态,都可以把美国继续发展核武器的责任推给中国。

第三,为了掩饰自己多年来并没有遵守条约的行径。通过谈判,美国将竭力掩饰自己一刻都没有停止对现役核武器进行更新改造,一刻都没有停止对新型战术核武器进行研发的行径。

第四,为了离间中俄两国的战略伙伴关系。美国一直担心中俄两国当前的战略伙伴关系,因为这是实现“美国第一”和世界霸主地位的最大威胁,美国一直试图通过拉中国进入会谈挑拨离间中俄关系。

第五,为了进一步了解中国核武器发展的现状。笔者曾参加过三次中美核战略会谈,深切感受到美国总是千方百计地企图了解中国核武器数量、核力量部署和发展规划等,他们邀请中国参加会谈就是想摸清我们核力量的底。

中国该如何应对

在“邀请中国加入”这个问题上,今年3月美国曾制造过虚伪的假象,即美国将提出形成一个由美、俄、中新三方参加的核军控机制,称是为了避免各方发生昂贵的军备竞赛。事实上,在核军备控制问题上,中国始终愿意与各方合作,在现有多边机制框架下加强沟通和协调。对于核裁军,我们认为美国应响应俄罗斯提出的《新削减战略武器条约》再延长5年的呼吁,进一步削减其庞大的核武器库,为其他核武器国家加入多边核裁军谈判创造条件。

中国不应参加核大国发起的任何涉核活动。中国一直奉行防御性的国防政策,奉行独立自主的国家安全方针。中国的核武器数量一直保持在维护国家安全所需的最低水平,与美国、俄罗斯庞大的核武库现状完全不在一个数量级。中国不与核大国比数量比规模、不首先使用及“精干有效”的核政策不会改变。中国发展和保留核武器,只是为了维护本国的核安全,只是为了确保可靠可信的还手之力,并确保让胆敢对中国使用核武器的任何国家受到应有的惩罚。

笔者认为,将于6月22日在维也纳举行的会谈,表明了美国当局在延长《新削减战略武器条约》的立场有所软化。某种意义上说,这是好事。

笔者对会谈前景有四个基本判断和警示:一是美俄作为世界核大国的地位不会改变。据日本共同社2019年6月报道,当前世界共有现役(并不包括处于贮存状态的)核弹头14480个,其中俄罗斯为6850个,美国6450个,其他国家都在500枚以下。可见在今后数十年里,美俄的核大国地位不会改变。

二是美俄不会放缓研发新型核武器的步伐。近年来,美国先后退出了《中导条约》《开放天空条约》等多个军控条约。虽然俄罗斯声明愿意延长《新削减战略武器条约》,而美国至今尚未答复。现实中,两国对于现役核武器如“民兵3”和“白杨M”洲际弹道核导弹的改进一直没有停止过,对于小当量、低污染战术核武器的研发也一直没有停止过。

三是世界核武器运用的门槛将不断降低。研发核武器已经不属于高不可及的尖端技术,一些中小国家也能够制造。制约核武器研发的一些条约和协议不断被废除和撕毁,致使核军备竞赛逐步升级。世界面临的核威胁正在呈现上升趋势。

四是必须高度警惕有人使用核武器、发动核战争。对于日趋严峻的国际核形势,国际社会必须坚决反对这种对全人类犯罪、对人类共同居住环境带来不可逆污染、危害子孙后代的极端犯罪行径。(作者是中国核战略、核军控、导弹技术专家)
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