Whether Trump or Biden Wins, Today’s Election Has Already Gone Down in History

Published in Veja
(Brazil) on 3 November 2020
by Ricardo Noblat (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Lisa Carrington. Edited by Patricia Simoni.
The highest early voter turnout ever recorded

The 2020 U.S. presidential election has already been guaranteed its place in history. In a country where voting is not mandatory, 97.6 million people had already voted by the end of yesterday, in person or by mail. That represents more than two-thirds of the votes cast in the 2016 election.

On the last day of the campaign, at most of the five rallies he held in four states, President Donald Trump attacked the Supreme Court, six of whose nine justices are conservative. Trump said that the Court put the country in danger by allowing Pennsylvania to accept mail-in ballots after Election Day.

According to Trump, the Supreme Court’s decision was political and could encourage his opponents to cheat. He tweeted that it could even induce violence in the streets. Twitter immediately flagged the president’s statements as potentially misleading, thus alerting its users.

Monday was a day of many complaints from Trump. In addition to the Supreme Court, his other targets were the media, former President Barack Obama, Sen. Hillary Clinton, and the investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election. The coronavirus was mentioned only in passing. Trump tried to discredit the polls that pointed to a victory by Democrat Joe Biden.

He was clearly nervous. In Kenosha, Wisconsin, Trump even complained about the microphone he was given. According to the New York Times, he said, “This is the worst microphone I’ve ever used in my life.” He promised to refund half of the entrance fee to those who attended.

Polling organizations, with the exception of one, agree that Biden will beat Trump by a large margin in the popular vote, and a less significant one in the Electoral College. The organization that disagrees about Biden’s possible victory in the Electoral College was the only one to predict Trump’s election four years ago.

The president who lost the popular vote won the Electoral College on five occasions, which is what really matters. The last time it was Trump himself. Each state has its own rules. There are less populous states with more Electoral College votes and more populous ones with fewer votes. It’s a complete free-for-all.

The U.S. needs a body like our Superior Electoral Court to coordinate vote counting. It’s the media that forecasts the name of the probable winner based on exit polls. That could happen on Wednesday morning or drag on for another day.


Ganhe Trump ou Biden, a eleição de hoje já passou à história

Nunca tantos votaram tão cedo

A eleição presidencial norte-americana de 2020 já garantiu seu lugar na história. Em um país onde o voto não é obrigatório, até o final da tarde de ontem, pessoalmente ou pelo Correio, 97,6 milhões de pessoas já haviam votado. Isso significa mais de dois terços do número total de votos apurados na eleição de 2016.

No último dia de campanha, na maioria dos cinco comícios que fez em quatro Estados, o presidente Donald Trump atacou a Suprema Corte onde 6 dos 9 ministros são conservadores. Trump disse que tribunal pôs o país em perigo ao permitir que a Pensilvânia aceite votos que chegarem pelo Correio após o dia da eleição.

Segundo Trump, a decisão da Suprema Corte foi política e poderá estimular manobras fraudulentas dos seus adversários. No Twitter, escreveu que ela seria capaz até de induzir “à violência nas ruas”. De imediato, o Twitter classificou as afirmações do presidente como potencialmente falsas e alertou os seus usuários para isso.

A segunda-feira foi um dia de muitas queixas feitas por Trump. Além da Suprema Corte, foram alvos delas a mídia, o ex-presidente Barack Obama, a senadora Hillary Clinton e a investigação sobre a interferência russa nas eleições de 2016. O coronavírus foi mencionado apenas de passagem. Trump tentou desacreditar as pesquisas que apontam a vitória do Democrata Joe Biden.

Parecia claramente nervoso. Em Kenosha, cidade do Estado de Wisconsin, Trump reclamou até das falhas do microfone que lhe deram. “Este é o pior microfone que já usei na vida”, disse segundo o jornal The New York Times. Prometeu devolver a todos que ali compareceram metade do preço que pagaram pelo ingresso.
Os institutos de pesquisa, menos um, concordam que Biden deverá vencer Trump com uma larga vantagem no voto popular, e uma vantagem menos expressiva no Colégio Eleitoral. O instituto que discorda da eventual vitória de Biden também no Colégio Eleitoral foi o único que há 4 anos previu a eleição de Trump.

Em cinco ocasiões, o presidente que ganhou no voto popular perdeu no Colégio Eleitoral, que é o que vale de fato. A última vez foi o próprio Trump. Cada Estado tem sua própria legislação. Há Estados menos populosos com mais votos no Colégio Eleitoral, e Estados mais populosos com menos votos. É uma zorra total.

Falta aos Estados Unidos um órgão como o nosso Tribunal Superior Eleitoral para coordenar a apuração dos votos. É a mídia, com base nas pesquisas de boca de urna, que antecipa o nome do provável vencedor. Isso poderá acontecer na madrugada desta quarta-feira. Ou arrastar-se por mais um dia.
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