In the Eyes of Europeans, Trump Has Done Lasting Damage to the Trans-Atlantic Partnership
Published in Le Nouvel Observateur
(France) on 20 January 2021
by Ivan Krastev and Mark Leonard (link to
original)
Europeans believe that Washington will not regain its leadership and intend to remain neutral in the cold war shaping up with China. This is the conclusion of a survey of more than 15,000 people in 11 member states of the European Union, conducted by the European Council on Foreign Relations.
Donald Trump is no Evita Perón. Few people in Europe will be sad to see him go. And even if they are happy about the inauguration of a moderate force with Joe Biden, most Europeans doubt that America can regain its rank as a world leader on issues such as climate change or the threat posed by China.
This is what stands out in our survey of more than 15,000 Europeans in 11 member states of the European Union, published this week. It reveals a wide skepticism as to the future trajectory of the United States: Even if Europeans, for the large part, appreciate the new leader in the White House, a majority now believe that the American political system is broken.
In the eyes of many Europeans, the United States will be distracted by internal divisions and will struggle to regain its global leadership. Six out of 10 people surveyed for the ECFR study think that China will outrank the United States to become the leading global superpower in the next 10 years. And a majority don’t believe that the United States will always protect Europe.
See chart here
Trump’s strategy, by which it was in Washington’s interest for him to act as a disruptor in chief and to organize the world around asymmetrical bilateral relationships with other powers, seems to have failed. Yet, the hope of a reversal with Biden and a return to Barack Obama’s policy of anchoring American power in a network of alliances also seems unrealistic.
Europeans' Confidence at Its Lowest Level
Close to one-third of Europeans believe that after voting for Trump in 2016, Americans cannot be trusted. It is striking to see that more than half of all Germans (53%) share this opinion on Europe’s trans-Atlantic partner. Even if Germany is an exception on this point, it is clear that a single election cycle won’t be enough to restore the tarnished international reputation of the United States.
See chart here
The impact of Trump on trans-Atlantic relations has been such that, in a potential conflict between the United States and China or Russia, neutrality is now the most popular option among Europeans. The new American administration may have thought that this desire for neutrality on the part of Europeans was the consequence of their visceral reaction to Trump, but today it seems that’s not the case.
As an alternative to relying on America, Europeans are converging on the idea of a more sovereign and autonomous Europe. More than two-thirds of Europeans globally believe that the EU should look after its own security, with a particularly strong opinion among citizens in France (70%), Sweden (71%), Spain (71%) and even the United Kingdom (74%).
See chart here
Berlin, New Leader of the Western World?
This raises the question of whether Berlin will replace Washington as the leading foreign policy capital. Many people in Europe seem to share that view. Most people surveyed in France, Spain, Denmark, the Netherlands, Portugal and Hungary indeed choose Germany before the United States as “the most important country to build a good relationship with.” The United Kingdom (55%) and Poland (45%), which traditionally considered the United States as a powerful guarantor of their freedom, are the only countries that ranked the United States well above Germany.
That said, it would be easy to misinterpret these data. For example, what does the popular support for European sovereignty mean? Some European leaders, like Emmanuel Macron, tend to interpret this as a desire to play a more important role on the global political stage. But for a substantial majority of citizens, it primarily reflects a desire to remain neutral in the face of growing competition between the United States and China. For them, sovereignty doesn’t represent an entry point for the EU in international politics, but on the contrary, a way out of tomorrow’s bipolar world. It is a request for early retirement from the battle of the great powers.
See chart here
A Desire for Neutrality
As Biden takes office as the 46th president of the United States, the main lesson we can draw from these data is that, in a new cold war, Europeans will not automatically take the side of Washington. It doesn’t mean they necessarily disagree with American intentions, but the problem is that they have doubts about whether the United States can prevail. Their support shall not be taken for granted; it will need to be won, with evidence that it will be mutually beneficial.
After four years of Trump, the existing partnership between the EU and the United States is broken and needs to be repaired. As America engages again with the world, the new Biden administration has every reason to fear not only toxic divisions within its country, but also the mood of the Europeans.
Ivan Krastev is Chairman of the Centre for Liberal Strategies in Sofia and a permanent member of the IWM Institute for Human Sciences in Vienna. Mark Leonard is Director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, a pan-European think tank.
Donald Trump is no Evita Perón. Few people in Europe will be sad to see him go. And even if they are happy about the inauguration of a moderate force with Joe Biden, most Europeans doubt that America can regain its rank as a world leader on issues such as climate change or the threat posed by China.
This is what stands out in our survey of more than 15,000 Europeans in 11 member states of the European Union, published this week. It reveals a wide skepticism as to the future trajectory of the United States: Even if Europeans, for the large part, appreciate the new leader in the White House, a majority now believe that the American political system is broken.
In the eyes of many Europeans, the United States will be distracted by internal divisions and will struggle to regain its global leadership. Six out of 10 people surveyed for the ECFR study think that China will outrank the United States to become the leading global superpower in the next 10 years. And a majority don’t believe that the United States will always protect Europe.
See chart here
Trump’s strategy, by which it was in Washington’s interest for him to act as a disruptor in chief and to organize the world around asymmetrical bilateral relationships with other powers, seems to have failed. Yet, the hope of a reversal with Biden and a return to Barack Obama’s policy of anchoring American power in a network of alliances also seems unrealistic.
Europeans' Confidence at Its Lowest Level
Close to one-third of Europeans believe that after voting for Trump in 2016, Americans cannot be trusted. It is striking to see that more than half of all Germans (53%) share this opinion on Europe’s trans-Atlantic partner. Even if Germany is an exception on this point, it is clear that a single election cycle won’t be enough to restore the tarnished international reputation of the United States.
See chart here
The impact of Trump on trans-Atlantic relations has been such that, in a potential conflict between the United States and China or Russia, neutrality is now the most popular option among Europeans. The new American administration may have thought that this desire for neutrality on the part of Europeans was the consequence of their visceral reaction to Trump, but today it seems that’s not the case.
As an alternative to relying on America, Europeans are converging on the idea of a more sovereign and autonomous Europe. More than two-thirds of Europeans globally believe that the EU should look after its own security, with a particularly strong opinion among citizens in France (70%), Sweden (71%), Spain (71%) and even the United Kingdom (74%).
See chart here
Berlin, New Leader of the Western World?
This raises the question of whether Berlin will replace Washington as the leading foreign policy capital. Many people in Europe seem to share that view. Most people surveyed in France, Spain, Denmark, the Netherlands, Portugal and Hungary indeed choose Germany before the United States as “the most important country to build a good relationship with.” The United Kingdom (55%) and Poland (45%), which traditionally considered the United States as a powerful guarantor of their freedom, are the only countries that ranked the United States well above Germany.
That said, it would be easy to misinterpret these data. For example, what does the popular support for European sovereignty mean? Some European leaders, like Emmanuel Macron, tend to interpret this as a desire to play a more important role on the global political stage. But for a substantial majority of citizens, it primarily reflects a desire to remain neutral in the face of growing competition between the United States and China. For them, sovereignty doesn’t represent an entry point for the EU in international politics, but on the contrary, a way out of tomorrow’s bipolar world. It is a request for early retirement from the battle of the great powers.
See chart here
A Desire for Neutrality
As Biden takes office as the 46th president of the United States, the main lesson we can draw from these data is that, in a new cold war, Europeans will not automatically take the side of Washington. It doesn’t mean they necessarily disagree with American intentions, but the problem is that they have doubts about whether the United States can prevail. Their support shall not be taken for granted; it will need to be won, with evidence that it will be mutually beneficial.
After four years of Trump, the existing partnership between the EU and the United States is broken and needs to be repaired. As America engages again with the world, the new Biden administration has every reason to fear not only toxic divisions within its country, but also the mood of the Europeans.
Ivan Krastev is Chairman of the Centre for Liberal Strategies in Sofia and a permanent member of the IWM Institute for Human Sciences in Vienna. Mark Leonard is Director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, a pan-European think tank.
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