If There Is Conflict in the Taiwan Strait, Will the US Really Send Troops?

Published in UDN
(Taiwan) on 27 February 2021
by Chen I-hsin (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Jennifer Sampson. Edited by Michelle Bisson.
On Feb. 25, a Kuomintang think tank held a symposium, “The Chinese Communist Party’s Military Threat to Taiwan,” in which the following question was discussed: If the CCP takes military action against Taiwan, will U.S. aircraft carriers come to the rescue? Symposium participants retired Gen. Herman Shuai, former Minister of National Defense Andrew Yang and National Policy Foundation Convener Lin Yu-fang offered differing perspectives. However, they all agreed that to get votes, the Democratic Progressive Party administration continues to deceive the public by saying that the U.S. will certainly send troops to help Taiwan when something happens in the Taiwan Strait.

Whether the U.S. will send troops to Taiwan’s aid, and whether Taiwan can defend itself, involves at least three layers of issues.

First, compared with Western Europe and Japan, Taiwan is of little concern to the vital interests of the U.S; at best, it is of only marginal interest.

Ordinarily, U.S. officials can boast about Taiwan’s being a beacon of Asian democracy. Taiwan is also a critical piece of America’s supply chain. However, when the crucial moment comes to send troops to Taiwan’s aid, the U.S. might just consider otherwise, similar to how, in the past, it abandoned its comrades in arms, the South Vietnam government and the Kurds.

Still, for a long time, DPP administrations, from Chen Shui-bian to Tsai Ing-wen, have told the Taiwanese people, “Don’t worry! If something happens in Taiwan, the U.S. will certainly come.”

Second, polls conducted in both Taiwan and the U.S. on whether the U.S. will send troops to the Taiwan Strait if something happens reveal great differences. Polls in Taiwan indicate that more than 70% of Taiwanese believe the U.S. will come to Taiwan’s defense. Polls conducted over the years in the U.S., however, indicate that only 30% to 40% of Americans support U.S. involvement in disputes in the Taiwan Strait. Still, the DPP administration has never told the Taiwanese what the American people really think.

Third, regarding whether the Taiwanese are ready to fight to protect Taiwan, public opinion polls conducted by DPP-backed organizations and those by other polling organizations differ greatly. According to polls conducted by the DPP, approximately 70% of Taiwanese people are willing to fight to protect Taiwan. However, polls conducted by other organizations indicate that number is only 30% to 40%; if the question is changed to, “Are you willing to fight for Taiwan independence?” the numbers are even lower.

In a 2004 interview by the Taiwan Public Television Service, former U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage was asked whether the Taiwan Relations Act requires the U.S. to send troops to aid Taiwan when the CCP attacks. He replied that, of course it doesn’t, particularly if Taiwan is the provocateur.

From last year until the beginning of this year, respective reports from the Council on Foreign Relations, Voice of America and United States-China Economic and Security Review Commission — three reports with international weight — have said that the situation in the Taiwan Strait is grim and the risk of conflict has increased. This is why in last year’s National Day address and this year’s New Year’s Day statement, Lunar New Year’s Eve remarks and arrangements with national security personnel, Tsai Ing-wen has endeavored to express goodwill across the strait and extend an olive branch. Of course, this is also why U.S. pressure to promote talks has increased.

DPP supporters may not listen to KMT think tank scholars and experts. Still, the words of Minister of Foreign Affairs Joseph Wu in an interview on National Public Radio last September should be evidence enough. He clearly made the following pledge at the request of the Americans: Taiwan currently is not seeking to establish full diplomatic relations with the U.S. Even in a conflict in the Taiwan Strait, Taiwan will also not rely on U.S. intervention.


台海有事 美國定出兵來救?

國民黨智庫廿五日舉辦「中共對台灣之軍事威脅」座談會,討論到一旦中共對台動武,美國航艦會不會來的問題。雖然與會退將帥化民、國防部前部長楊念祖與基金會國安組召集人林郁方各有觀點,但一致同意民進黨政府為騙選票還不斷矇騙人民說美國一定會在台海有事時派兵馳援。


美國是否派兵馳援台灣以及台灣是否具備保台能力,至少牽涉到三個層面的問題。

第一,台灣與西歐、日本相比,絕對不是攸關美國重大利益的問題,充其量只是美國邊緣的利益而已。

平時,美國官員可以夸夸其談台灣是亞洲民主的燈塔,也是美國重要供應鏈的一環。但一到是否出兵馳援的關鍵時刻,可能就會另做考量,就像過去拋棄曾與美軍並肩作戰的南越政府與庫德族一樣。

但是,長期以來,民進黨政府從陳水扁到蔡英文都告訴國人「安啦!台灣有事,美國一定會來」。

第二,台美兩地關於美軍是否會在台海有事時派軍馳援所做的民調,可說大異其趣。台灣所做的民調顯示,高達百分之七十以上的台灣人民相信美軍會來協防台灣。美國歷年所做的民調則顯示,只有三成到四成美國人民支持美軍捲入台海戰爭。但是,民進黨政府從不告訴台灣人民有關美國民眾的真正看法。

第三,有關台灣人民願不願意為保衛台灣而戰的問題,民進黨支持的民意測驗機構與其他民調機構也存在著極大的落差。民進黨所做的民調顯示高達百分之七十左右的人民願為保衛台灣而戰,但非民進黨支持的民調顯示不到三、四成,若是問題改成「為台獨而戰」,則數字更低。

美國前副國務卿阿米塔吉在二○○四年接受公共電視台訪問,被問到「台灣關係法」是否要求美國在中共對台動武時出兵馳援,他回應說當然不會,特別是台灣為挑釁的一方就更不會。

從去年到今年初,共有三份國際上有份量的報告認為台海情勢嚴峻,兩岸戰爭風險升高;分別是「外交關係協會」、「美國之音」與「美中經濟及安全檢討委員會」的報告,這也是蔡英文從去年「國慶演說」、今年「元旦文告」、除夕前講話與國安人事安排,企圖向對岸釋出善意願遞出橄欖枝的原因。當然,這也是美國促談壓力日益升高的主因。

國民黨智庫學者專家說的話,也許民進黨支持者不見得聽得進去,但外交部長吳釗燮去年九月接受美國全國公共廣播電台專訪,應足以佐證。顯然,他是在美方要求下做出以下宣示:台灣目前不尋求與美國建立全面外交關係;即便台海衝突,台灣也不會依賴美國干預。

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