Iran’s New President Must Keep the Iran Deal Alive

Published in Shinmai
(Japan) on 21 June 2021
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Joseph Santiago. Edited by Laurence Bouvard.
Ebrahim Raisi, an anti-American hard-liner, has been elected president of Iran. He stands in stark contrast to incumbent President Hasan Rouhani, a moderate who, for the past eight years, has favored cooperation and dialogue with America and Europe. The military situation in the Middle East is at risk of further escalating with Raisi’s election. Just last year, Iran’s legislature, which is also dominated by hawks, passed laws that obligate the government to further the country’s nuclear program.

The biggest question this creates, though, is where Iran stands on its nuclear deal with the United States, which hopes to reinstate the agreement. Under the Rouhani administration, talks on the deal and a lifting of sanctions, with mediation by the EU, have continued as recently as the election, but there is no resolution in sight. If Iran continues to develop its nuclear capabilities, further instability in the Middle East will be unavoidable. All the work that already gone into reviving this deal must not be wasted. All concerned parties must remain steadfast in keeping it alive.

Previously, former President Donald Trump arbitrarily scrapped the United State’s participation in the agreement. With this came sanctions on Iran that blocked the exportation of Iranian oil and the importation of foreign goods, leading to a dearth of resources. This opened the door for more anti-American politicians to dominate their moderate counterparts.

Eliminating sanctions is, of course, also a top priority for the new administration, as Raisi has shown interest in continuing talks. However, uranium-enrichment limitations and strict inspections by international organizations are cornerstones of the Iran deal, and America originally imposed sanctions in response to the development of ballistic missiles and more than 1,500 instances of human rights violations.

The fact that Iran has insisted on the elimination of all sanctions shows how different each country’s demands are.
 
For the time being, talks will continue under Rouhani until August, although if they stall with no foreseeable resolution, hostilities with Iranian’s rival, Israel, will intensify. Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, who leads the first new administration in 12 years, has stressed that he won’t allow Iran to possess weapons of mass destruction. As such, America finds itself in the position of keeping Israel in check. President Joe Biden must show he can toe the line of working toward an agreement while being flexible when it comes to compromising.
 
Raisi is aiming to succeed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, whose influence over Iran’s Guardian Council prevented any moderates or revolutionaries from coming to power. This past election’s 48% voter turnout shows how acts like this have bred much discontent among Iran’s people. If Iran continues to be led with such a heavy hand while its citizens continue to suffer, the Iranian government may find itself on the wrong side of its people's discontent.

Iran’s chaotic situation will have ramifications in Japan, which also depends on Middle Eastern oil. As a historically important player in the region, Japan must put its own diplomatic power to use as well.


〈社説〉イラン新大統領 核合意の崩壊を避けねば

イランの次期大統領が、反米保守強硬派のイブラヒム・ライシ師に決まった。

 過去8年間、政権を担った保守穏健派のロウハニ師は、米欧との対話と協調を重視してきた。その路線が大きく転換される。

 中東で軍事的な緊張が再び高まる恐れがある。保守強硬派が圧倒的多数のイラン国会は昨年、核開発の大幅な拡大を政府に義務付ける法律も成立させている。

 最大の焦点は、核合意再建に向けた米国との協議の行方だ。ロウハニ政権は大統領選までに合意と制裁解除を目指したものの決着をみず、欧州連合(EU)などの仲介による協議が続いている。

 イランの核開発が進めば、中東情勢の不安定化が避けられない。積み上げた合意再建への努力を無にしてはならない。関係国による粘り強い交渉が求められる。

 核合意は米トランプ前政権が一方的に破棄した。経済制裁によってイランは原油輸出を封じられ、海外資産も凍結。物資の窮乏は深刻だ。穏健派は支持を失い、対米強硬派の急伸を招いた。

 新政権にとっても制裁解除は優先すべき課題だ。ライシ師は協議を継続する考えを示している。

 核合意は国際原子力機関の厳格な査察受け入れやウラン濃縮制限などが柱だ。米国は弾道ミサイル開発や人権侵害など1500以上の事案について制裁を科した。全ての解除を主張するイランとは隔たりが大きいとみられる。

 当面、協議は8月まで任期が残るロウハニ現政権下で続く。再建に道筋を開くことなく暗礁に乗り上げてしまえば、敵対するイスラエルとの衝突の危険も高まる。

 12年ぶりに政権交代したイスラエルの新首相ベネット氏は、イランによる大量破壊兵器の保有を許さないと強調している。

 米国はイスラエルに自制を促す立場だ。バイデン政権は合意復帰への明確な意志と、柔軟に歩み寄る姿勢を示すべきだ。

 ライシ師は最高指導者ハメネイ師の後継と目される。選挙はハメネイ師の影響下にある護憲評議会が、穏健派や改革派有力者の出馬を軒並み阻んでの圧勝だった。48%台という過去最低の投票率に、国民の失望感が表れている。

 生活の苦境が続く一方で強権が強まれば、不満の矛先は政府に向きかねない。新政権の不安定要素も注視していく必要がある。

 イラン情勢の混乱は、原油を中東に依存する日本にも影響が大きい。歴史的に関係の深い日本も独自の外交力を発揮したい。
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