Fill the Power Vacuum in the US-Philippine Alliance

Published in Nihon Keizai Shimbun (Nikkei)
(Japan) on 2 August 2021
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Eric Stimson. Edited by Gillian Palmer.
The Philippines has decided to retain the agreement that determines the legal status of the U.S. military within the country. President Rodrigo Duterte had told America that he was annulling the agreement, and it remained in limbo. We welcome the renewal of this important arrangement that operationalizes the U.S.-Philippine alliance and restrains China from further militarizing the South China Sea.

The Visiting Forces Agreement was the basis for America’s use of ports and for its joint exercises. Other agreements — a joint defense treaty and an agreement to enhance defense cooperation — had meaning thanks to the VFA.

Duterte reportedly announced that he was unilaterally annulling the VFA in February of last year out of anger that a former police chief he is close to had been denied an American visa on suspicion of committing human rights abuses. Subsequently, the annulment never actually took place.

The inaction was blamed on the COVID-19 pandemic. After the annulment was announced, Chinese ships attacked Philippine naval ships with lasers. Numerous unnerving events also took place in the background including the unilateral creation of administrative districts on disputed islands in the South China Sea.

The Philippines is one corner of the American alliance in the Indo-Pacific region, along with Japan, South Korea, Australia and Thailand. If the VFA had lapsed, the alliance might have been defanged, which could have had a major effect on the power balance in Asia.

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin agreed last week with the reversal of the the annulment on a visit to the Philippines. This was the first visit to Southeast Asia by a cabinet official in the Joe Biden administration, and the removal of an item of concern in the security field was a major accomplishment.

China has cleverly taken advantage of the power vacuum opened up by the rift in the Philippine-American alliance and accelerated its maritime advances.

In 1995, three years after the U.S. military’s general withdrawal from the Philippines, China occupied Mischief Reef. The VFA was formalized in 1998 as a result, but in 2012, Chinese occupation of Scarborough Reef was permitted. Dissatisfaction with the Obama administration’s passive response at the time was a distant factor in Duterte’s annulment announcement.

The Biden administration, which is emphasizing the need to coordinate with allies against China, may use the continuation of the VFA to make reexamining security cooperation with the Philippines an urgent matter.


フィリピンが自国内での米軍の法的地位を定めた協定を存続させると決めた。ドゥテルテ大統領が米国に破棄を通告し、宙に浮いていた協定だ。米比同盟を機能させる重要な取り決めの堅持は、南シナ海の軍事拠点化を進める中国をけん制するうえで歓迎できる。

「訪問軍地位協定(VFA)」は米軍が寄港したり、合同演習を行ったりする際の根拠になっている。相互防衛条約や防衛協力強化協定といった他の軍事協定も、VFAがあってこそ意味を持つ。

ドゥテルテ氏は、側近の元警察長官が人権侵害を理由に米国から入国ビザの発給を拒まれたことに腹を立てたとされ、昨年2月にVFA破棄を一方的に通告した。ただし実行はその後留保していた。

理由として新型コロナウイルスの感染拡大を挙げた。破棄の通告後、中国の公船が比海軍の船にレーザーを照射したり、領有権を争う南シナ海の島々に一方的に行政区を新設したりする不穏な動きが相次いだことも背景とみられた。

フィリピンは日韓やオーストラリア、タイと共にインド太平洋地域で5つある米同盟国の一角だ。VFAが失効すれば同盟が形骸化し、アジアのパワーバランスに重大な影響を及ぼしかねなかった。

破棄の撤回は、オースティン米国防長官が先週、フィリピンを訪れた際に合意した。バイデン政権の閣僚として初の東南アジア訪問で、安全保障上の懸案事項を解消したのは大きな成果だ。

中国は米比同盟の綻びに伴う「力の空白」を巧みに突き、海洋進出を加速させてきた。

1995年にミスチーフ礁を占拠したのは、在比米軍の全面撤退の3年後だった。その反省から98年にVFAを結んだが、2012年にはスカボロー礁の占拠も許してしまう。当時のオバマ政権の対応の鈍さへの不満が、ドゥテルテ氏の破棄通告の遠因でもあった。

対中国で同盟国との連携を重視するバイデン政権は、VFAの存続決定を機に、フィリピンとの安保協力の再点検が急務となろう。
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