American banks are not in the same boat. They issue annual reports one after the other and they are all different.
It's better to fire a warning shot than to risk defeat. After annual reports from JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs were widely viewed with suspicion, the spread of corruption among American banks might now be preventable thanks to more diligent reports issued by Bank of America and Morgan Stanley.
Farsighted investors are beginning to hear some of the music they have hoped for about a banking recovery, but it does not necessarily mean that banking is regaining lost ground.
Investors have clearly seen a decline in trading revenues and the gradual shift in growth to net interest earnings (interest earned minus interest paid) overseas thanks to a return in demand and the Federal Reserve raising rates.
In an inflationary environment, technological and human resource investments make banking even more complicated to predict, but the biggest complication for sectorial forecasts is the noise CEOs are making about their operational leverage.
Business Models
The best way to prevent distorted perceptions about where banking is headed is to put all the banking giants in the same bag. However, Morgan Stanley boss James Gorman has been further distinguishing his company from the rest by announcing a goal to raise the profitability of private funds.
His business model is defined by the strong link between remuneration and production. In this regard, his large-scale acquisitions in 2020 and 2021 of E-Trade and Eaton Vance allowed him to access their technologies as well as their profitable productivity.
We should note that going forward, Morgan Stanley will be offering 20% return on tangible private funds versus the less than 17% it offered previously.
Les banques américaines ne peuvent être logées à même enseigne. Les publications annuelles se suivent et ne se ressemblent pas.
Mieux vaut accentuer un coup de semonce que de s'exposer à un coup de Trafalgar. La chaîne de contamination bancaire, depuis les publications jugées décevantes de JP Morgan et de Goldman Sachs, a pu être cassée, grâce à celles fort satisfaisantes de Bank of America et Morgan Stanley.
La petite musique espérée par les investisseurs prévoyants s'est enfin fait entendre, sans toutefois faire regagner tout le terrain perdu. Ils avaient bien vu venir le dégonflement des revenus de trading, et le relais de croissance offert progressivement par les revenus nets d'intérêts (intérêts perçus moins intérêts versés) outre-Atlantique, grâce à la reprise de la demande de crédit et à la hausse des taux de la Fed.
Les investissements technologiques et humains, sur fond d'inflation, compliquent la donne. Mais c'est surtout la cacophonie des « CEO » au sujet de leur levier opérationnel qui complique la tâche des oracles sectoriels.
Modèles d'affaires
Le meilleur geste barrière contre les déceptions consiste à ne pas mettre tous ces géants bancaires dans le même sac. Le patron de Morgan Stanley, James Gorman , a d'ailleurs encore marqué sa différence, tout en relevant son objectif de rentabilité des fonds propres.
Selon lui, son modèle d'affaires se distingue par le lien fort entre rémunérations et production. Quant à ses grosses acquisitions de E Trade et Eaton Vance , en 2020 et 2021, elles lui ont aussi permis d'acquérir des technologies.
A noter
Morgan Stanley vise désormais un rendement de ses fonds propres tangibles d'au moins 20 % à moyen terme, contre au moins 17 % précédemment.
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Yet, over the long term, tilting towards the US doesn't seem to be the natural choice, especially when America is looking to re-shore manufacturing and disengage from China-centric supply chains.
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