Fear of Nuclear War

Published in Sankei News
(Japan) on 22 February 2022
by Yusuke Hirata (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Dorothy Phoenix. Edited by Patricia Simoni.
A diplomat has divulged that, every day, as tensions continue to rise in the explosive situation encircling Ukraine, “It looks like the Cuban Missile Crisis all over again.”* It can be said that the situation calls to mind the incident that threw the world into fear of nuclear warfare in 1962, as brinkmanship diplomacy between the U.S. and the Soviet Union spread.

Certainly, the current situation is so dire that the U.S. and Russian leadership has used words such as “nuclear war” and “world war.” Russian President Vladimir Putin has stated, “Russia is one of the most powerful nuclear states” and that “there will be no winners” in such a war, while U.S. President Joe Biden said, “That's a world war when Americans and Russia start shooting at one another.”

Russia should have reaffirmed the general rule, as stated last June in a joint declaration with the U.S. and again in a joint statement this January with five nuclear states, including the U.K., France and China, that “nuclear war […] must never be fought.” Nevertheless, in a large-scale military exercise on Feb. 19, Russia launched a missile capable of bearing a nuclear warhead. It seems that Russia will not hesitate to use nuclear threats as a means of forcing concessions from the U.S. and Europe.

In the U.S., the Nuclear Posture Review will be issued soon, but arms control experts say that the significance of Biden’s quest for a reduction in the role of nuclear arms has dimmed.

These days, we are far from a world without nuclear weapons, and the risk of being able to launch nuclear weapons with a green light from artificial intelligence has also been pointed out. I have a hunch that a time in which fear of nuclear war steadily increases is coming.

*Editor's Note: This quotation, accurately translated, could not be verified.


核戦争の恐怖

ウクライナをめぐり一触即発の緊張が続く毎日に、ある外交官が漏らした。「キューバ危機(の再来)を見ているようだ」。1962年に米ソが瀬戸際外交を展開し、世界を核戦争の恐怖に陥れた出来事を想起するのだという。

確かに情勢は、米露首脳が「核」や「世界戦争」といった言葉を口にするほど厳しい。プーチン露大統領は「ロシアは核保有国だ。その戦争に勝者はいない」と語り、バイデン米大統領は「米露が互いに発砲し始めたら、世界大戦になる」と訴えた。

ロシアは、昨年6月の米国との共同声明や、今年1月の英仏中を含めた核保有5カ国の共同声明で「核戦争は絶対に始めてはいけない」との原則を確認したはずだ。それにもかかわらず、19日の大規模演習では核弾頭を搭載可能なミサイルを発射した。米欧に譲歩を迫る威嚇の道具として核の脅威を使うことに何ら躊躇(ちゅうちょ)はないようだ。

米国では「核態勢の見直し」が近く公表される予定だが、軍備管理の専門家はバイデン氏が模索してきた核の役割縮小に注目する意義は「薄れた」ともする。

「核兵器のない世界」どころか、今では人工知能(AI)が核兵器の使用にゴーサインを出すリスクも指摘されている。核戦争の恐怖が一段と増す時代が来る予感がする。(平田雄介)
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