The Sanctions Paradox: Why the US Barely Has Anything To Offer Iran
Published in Neue Zürcher Zeitung
(Switzerland) on 10 August 2022
by Ulrich von Schwerin (link to original)
(Switzerland) on 10 August 2022
by Ulrich von Schwerin (link to original)
Translated from
by Mallory Matsumoto.
Edited by Patricia Simoni.
The U.S. demands that Iran again adhere to the requirements of the nuclear agreement. In return, the U.S. promises to lift the sanctions that were imposed during the nuclear dispute. For the administration in Tehran, however, that offer has long ceased to be appealing.
After five days of intensive negotiations, the parties reached a new compromise in the nuclear strife with Iran at the beginning of the week. At least, that was how it was presented by the European Union, which is moderating talks between the U.S. and Iran. According to Josep Borrell, the EU High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, there is now a “final text” for returning to the 2015 nuclear deal.* Now, the administrations in Tehran and Washington need to decide. The Iranians, however, said they still had concerns about several points, and further discussion is needed.
Thus, it remains doubtful that Tehran is in fact giving in. Since hard-liner Ebrahim Raisi took office as a year ago, it has been suspected that the Iranians are buying time. President Raisi and Ali Bagheri Kani, his representative at the nuclear talks, never made their criticism of the agreement much of a secret. From their perspective, Iran had made excessive concessions. So it was doubtful they really wanted to save the nuclear deal.
Since then, this tactical maneuvering has only strengthened the impression that they merely wish to buy time so they can advance their nuclear program. It remains an open question whether the regime is in fact attempting to build a nuclear bomb. But it seems clear that at least, Iran wants to assemble the technical capacity to do so. That alone would significantly strengthen Tehran’s position. Even now, experts warn, Iranians have acquired knowledge that no one can take.
The Sanctions Are Painful but Ineffective
For too long, Americans have clung to the illusion that time is on their side. Donald Trump wasn't the only one who thought he could bring the Iranians to their knees with sanctions when he reneged on the nuclear deal in 2018. Joe Biden, Trump’s successor, appeared to be convinced as well for a long time that financial and trade restrictions would eventually force Tehran to give in. But this plan has not panned out.
It is not as if sanctions had no effect. Undeniably sanctions are doing grave damage to the Iranian economy and paralyzing the country’s development. Iranians are paying a price for the government’s pigheaded, irrational nuclear policies, a price that has long ceased to be proportional to the eventual gains in security and political power that mastering nuclear technology promises.
Lifting the Sanctions Would Hardly Change Anything
The problem with American sanctions, however, is that they hardly strengthen Biden’s negotiating position. That's because lifting the sanctions today would barely make a difference for Iran. Even if the sanctions imposed during the nuclear disagreement disappeared, many others sanctions would remain in place for violations of human rights and Iran’s missile program — sanctions that Biden is neither willing nor able to lift.
Nor can anyone guarantee that a Republican will not win the presidential election in 2024 and withdraw from the nuclear deal again. The Americans have tried to provide technical guarantees which would allow companies to continue doing business with Iran if the U.S. withdrew from the agreement again. But would Western companies and banks dare to invest in Iran or finance business deals under such circumstances?
Unlike when the nuclear deal was concluded seven years ago, few Iranians believe that ending sanctions will boost the country's economy. In this context, it seems doubtful that the regime is in fact willing to give up the progress it has made on its nuclear program. There's too little benefit in doing so. The U.S. thus faces a paradox. The pressure of sanctions on Iran has never been higher. But the U.S. still stands stand empty-handed and barely have anything to offer Iran.
*Editor's Note: The Iran nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, is a landmark accord reached between Iran and several world powers, including the United States, in July 2015.
After five days of intensive negotiations, the parties reached a new compromise in the nuclear strife with Iran at the beginning of the week. At least, that was how it was presented by the European Union, which is moderating talks between the U.S. and Iran. According to Josep Borrell, the EU High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, there is now a “final text” for returning to the 2015 nuclear deal.* Now, the administrations in Tehran and Washington need to decide. The Iranians, however, said they still had concerns about several points, and further discussion is needed.
Thus, it remains doubtful that Tehran is in fact giving in. Since hard-liner Ebrahim Raisi took office as a year ago, it has been suspected that the Iranians are buying time. President Raisi and Ali Bagheri Kani, his representative at the nuclear talks, never made their criticism of the agreement much of a secret. From their perspective, Iran had made excessive concessions. So it was doubtful they really wanted to save the nuclear deal.
Since then, this tactical maneuvering has only strengthened the impression that they merely wish to buy time so they can advance their nuclear program. It remains an open question whether the regime is in fact attempting to build a nuclear bomb. But it seems clear that at least, Iran wants to assemble the technical capacity to do so. That alone would significantly strengthen Tehran’s position. Even now, experts warn, Iranians have acquired knowledge that no one can take.
The Sanctions Are Painful but Ineffective
For too long, Americans have clung to the illusion that time is on their side. Donald Trump wasn't the only one who thought he could bring the Iranians to their knees with sanctions when he reneged on the nuclear deal in 2018. Joe Biden, Trump’s successor, appeared to be convinced as well for a long time that financial and trade restrictions would eventually force Tehran to give in. But this plan has not panned out.
It is not as if sanctions had no effect. Undeniably sanctions are doing grave damage to the Iranian economy and paralyzing the country’s development. Iranians are paying a price for the government’s pigheaded, irrational nuclear policies, a price that has long ceased to be proportional to the eventual gains in security and political power that mastering nuclear technology promises.
Lifting the Sanctions Would Hardly Change Anything
The problem with American sanctions, however, is that they hardly strengthen Biden’s negotiating position. That's because lifting the sanctions today would barely make a difference for Iran. Even if the sanctions imposed during the nuclear disagreement disappeared, many others sanctions would remain in place for violations of human rights and Iran’s missile program — sanctions that Biden is neither willing nor able to lift.
Nor can anyone guarantee that a Republican will not win the presidential election in 2024 and withdraw from the nuclear deal again. The Americans have tried to provide technical guarantees which would allow companies to continue doing business with Iran if the U.S. withdrew from the agreement again. But would Western companies and banks dare to invest in Iran or finance business deals under such circumstances?
Unlike when the nuclear deal was concluded seven years ago, few Iranians believe that ending sanctions will boost the country's economy. In this context, it seems doubtful that the regime is in fact willing to give up the progress it has made on its nuclear program. There's too little benefit in doing so. The U.S. thus faces a paradox. The pressure of sanctions on Iran has never been higher. But the U.S. still stands stand empty-handed and barely have anything to offer Iran.
*Editor's Note: The Iran nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, is a landmark accord reached between Iran and several world powers, including the United States, in July 2015.
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