China Responds to US-Led Export Regulations … Time To Prepare for Domestic Industry Fallout

Published in Hankookilbo
(South Korea) on 8th April, 2023
by Editorial (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Anukrati Mehta. Edited by Michelle Bisson.
China has launched a full-fledged counterattack against the U.S.-led export restrictions aimed at curbing the growth of China's high-tech industries. According to reports, the Chinese government has been revising the "Catalogue of Technologies Prohibited and Restricted from Export" since late last year to include "Rare Earth (neodymium, samarium cobalt) Elements" manufacturing technologies for magnets, which are a key component of high-performance motors. China has also requested that the World Trade Organization investigate whether the United States, Japan and the Netherlands, which banned the export of high-tech semiconductor equipment to China, violated World Trade Organization rules. The other two countries seem to be in the process of filing a complaint with the WTO following the lead of the United States.

The United States is leading efforts to exclude China from the high-tech industry's supply chain. Representative examples of this effort include export regulations on semiconductor equipment, with attempts to draw in South Korea, and the Semiconductor Act and Inflation Reduction Act, which seek to restructure global markets for semiconductors, electric vehicles and batteries through corporate subsidies. China's rare earth card may be aimed at neutralizing this offensive by controlling key raw materials for high-tech industries. In the case of rare earth magnets alone, China's market share for key components of advanced products, such as electric cars, airplanes, robots and weapons, is around 80-90%. As the world's largest producer of rare earth elements, China also possesses 90% of the refining capacity and has the potential to deploy various resource weaponization strategies.

As U.S.-China relations deteriorate following Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen's visit to the U.S., China is likely to increase its level of economic retaliation for the time being. In a foreign ministerial meeting with Japan earlier this month, China openly criticized Japan for aligning with the United States and called on Japan to oppose export restrictions on semiconductors. China referred to Japan as "becoming a lackey of [the] evil (United States)."

It is concerning that these conflicts are occurring in areas where we are leading the market. Although the government announced a "Strategy for Securing 10 Core Minerals" last month and formed a "Minerals Security Partnership" with 12 countries last year, it will be challenging to quickly reduce our heavy dependence on imported rare earth minerals, which currently stands at around 70%. Thus, there is a need to diversify our sources of mineral imports in the mid to long term, while also making economic and diplomatic efforts to alleviate the impact of individual measures.


중국 첨단산업 성장을 견제하려는 미국 주도의 수출 규제에 중국이 본격적인 역공에 나섰다. 보도에 따르면 중국 정부는 지난해 말부터 '수출 규제 기술 목록'에 고성능 모터의 핵심 부품인 '희토류(네오디뮴·사마륨코발트) 자석' 제조 기술을 포함시키는 개정 작업을 진행 중이다. 또 첨단 반도체 장비의 대중 수출을 금지한 미국·일본·네덜란드에 대해 규칙 위반 여부를 조사해달라고 세계무역기구(WTO)에 요구했다. 미국에 이어 다른 두 나라도 WTO에 제소하려는 수순으로 보인다.

미국은 첨단산업 공급망에서 중국을 배제하는 작업을 주도하고 있다. 한국까지 끌어들이려 하는 반도체 장비 수출 규제, 기업 보조금을 고리로 반도체·전기차·배터리 세계시장을 재편하려는 반도체법·인플레이션 감축법(IRA) 시행이 대표적이다. 중국이 희토류 카드를 꺼내든 건 첨단산업 핵심 원료 통제로 이런 공세를 무력화하려는 의도일 것이다. 희토류 자석만 해도 전기차 항공기 로봇 무기 등 첨단 제품의 핵심 부품으로 중국의 시장점유율이 80, 90%대에 달한다. 중국은 희토류 최대 생산국이자 정제 능력의 90%를 보유해 다양한 '자원무기화' 전략을 펼칠 여력이 있다.


미중 관계가 차이잉원 대만 총통의 방미로 악화하면서 중국은 당분간 경제 보복 수위를 끌어올릴 가능성이 크다. 이달 초 일본과의 외교장관 회담에선 "악당(미국)의 앞잡이가 되지 말라"며 반도체 수출 규제 동참을 원색 비난했다. 자원 부국 러시아도 니켈·팔라듐 광물 수출 금지 검토로 중국을 거들고 있다.

이런 공방전의 무대가 하나같이 우리가 시장을 선도하는 분야라 곤혹스럽다. 정부는 지난달 '10대 핵심 광물 확보 전략'을 발표하고 지난해엔 12개국과 '핵심 광물 안보 파트너십'을 맺었지만 높은 대중 수입 의존도(희토류는 70%대)를 단기간에 극복하긴 어렵다. 중장기적 관점에서 광물 수입선 다변화를 꾀하면서 개별 조치들이 초래할 충격을 완화할 경제적·외교적 노력을 병행할 필요가 있다.


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