Miracles Do Happen Sometimes*

*Editor’s note: On March 4, 2022, Russia enacted a law that criminalizes public opposition to, or independent news reporting about, the war in Ukraine. The law makes it a crime to call the war a “war” rather than a “special military operation” on social media or in a news article or broadcast. The law is understood to penalize any language that “discredits” Russia’s use of its military in Ukraine, calls for sanctions or protests Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It punishes anyone found to spread “false information” about the invasion with up to 15 years in prison.

Dmitry Drize – on the possibility of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine

The secret visit of the head of the CIA to Kyiv became one of the most notable topics of the past weekend. According to The Washington Post, William Burns was discussing some kind of new plan. At the same time, according to the publication, Burns talked by phone to the head of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service, Sergey Naryshkin. Ukrainian authorities don’t confirm anything of the sort. Kommersant’s political analyst Dmitry Drize believes that Washington really is offering Moscow a way to soften its position.

The Washington Post, referring to its informed sources, reported that Burns, the head of the CIA, has visited Kyiv in secret, where he familiarized himself with an alleged peace plan. The point is that by autumn Ukraine is supposed to restore a significant part of its lost territories, approaching the border with Crimea, or, alternately, the peninsula would be within reach of Ukrainian artillery, after which the talks with Moscow are supposed to begin.

The main requirement is for Russia to support Western guarantees for the republic’s security — that’s what’s being actively discussed right now. Meaning that Russia has to recognize Ukrainian statehood and the 1991 borders. The return to these borders couldn't happen immediately but, let’s say, after some time.

Also, according to the newspaper, Burns held a phone talk with Naryshkin, his Russian colleague. It’s unclear what they could have discussed. The very fact that these phone talks are happening, however, is presented as almost a sensation, as a positive moment: As in, if the sides are having phone conversations, not everything is yet lost. To begin with, we should note that all of this has happened before — secret visits, secret meetings. But the result has always been the same — the complete absence of any result. The Zelenskyy administration's official position is clear and well-known — a full withdrawal of troops from the country's territory is a mandatory prerequisite to any kind of talks.

However, in this, we could see a certain signal to the Kremlin — a dialogue is still possible. But under what conditions? The dialogue is, in fact, already underway: There is a group of mediators that includes, among others, the African countries and the Vatican, who are trying to establish contact somehow.

However, if all of this fails yet again, then the conflict will automatically escalate to a new level — that’s the main message.

If not, then Ukraine receives new generation fighters like F-16s, long-range missiles and bombs in massive numbers, among many other things.

There have been corresponding publications in the media already. If we’re talking about the U.S., there is a certain demand for decisive action. At the very least, why not criticize the Biden administration for being too soft.

Only 10 days remain until the pivotal NATO summit. NATO partners have to come up with something regarding Ukraine’s membership in the alliance. To be precise, they don’t want to come up with anything, but they’re being forced to. Kyiv is pressuring them — it’s threatening to boycott the entire event if there is no comprehensive decision.

What is there to do? They also didn’t want to supply Ukraine with tanks, but in the end we have what we have. So it would be beneficial for everyone if Russia softened its position and agreed to peace talks, even if tacit ones.

But it seems that nothing of the sort will happen. Although, as they say, miracles do happen sometimes. In any case, there’s not much time for consideration. The summit is about to happen, and autumn is close. That’s the kind of situation in which events are developing despite the wishes of the participants.

Any conflict is quick to start, but to end one can be impossible. It seems incredibly simple, but, in the end, everything goes as always. There are a lot of historical examples. There’s also an obvious trend — the West is working closely with Russia’s eastern partners, asking and demanding them to influence the Russian position. These partners seem to be thinking it over and weighing their chances. They are, obviously, also not happy about everything that’s going on.