Western Experts Wax Pessimistic on Taiwan, Fueling Wave of ‘America Skepticism Theory’

Published in United Daily News
(Taiwan) on 16 September 2023
by Zhang Jing (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Matthew McKay. Edited by Laurence Bouvard.
On Sept. 14, the United States Military Academy’s Modern War Institute at West Point published an article titled, “Every Taiwan Citizen a Resistance Member: Preparing for a Chinese Occupation," by Jeremiah “Lumpy” Lumbaca, PhD. Lumbaca was a member of the Green Berets and currently lectures on irregular warfare, counterterrorism and special operations at the Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies, a Hawaii-based institute that is part of the U.S. Department of Defense. In his article, he suggested ways for Taiwan to promote armed resistance activities should it fall into the hands of the Chinese Communist Party.

Coincidentally, on the same day, U.S. newspaper The Hill published a submission by retired U.S. Army Lt. Col. Daniel L. Davis, currently a senior research fellow at the Defense Priorities Foundation, a Washington think tank. That submission was titled, “We Should Not Choose To Fight a War with China if They Invade Taiwan”; in it, the author reflected on the present serious hostilities between Washington and Beijing and on how, judging from the policies adopted by either side, it is clear that the risk of marching toward conflict is extremely high, with Taiwan being the focal point.

In this way, Davis stressed that the national interests of the U.S. should be subjected to serious scrutiny, advocating that even if mainland China were to invade Taiwan, Washington should not choose to go to war with Beijing, as this would ultimately lead to the U.S. military incurring critical damage. Instead, the U.S. military should seize the opportunity to preserve its strength, allowing China’s People’s Liberation Army to land itself in hot water in Taiwan and wear itself out. The U.S. would thus be able to retain the upper hand against mainland China militarily and protect its national security interests.

In fact, people in U.S. security strategy circles, including academics, media commentators, retired generals and ex-officials, have in recent years been writing about the situation in the Taiwan Strait, putting forth various views and suggestions. But since these have been reported by the domestic media, they have touched off a high degree of suspicion about U.S. policies among the Taiwanese people.

This commentator himself has penned an article pointing out that the so-called “America Skepticism Theory” has actually moved on from its version 1.0 of worrying about a conflict in the Taiwan Strait, with the U.S. standing idly by, unwilling to send troops to intervene and come to the rescue. It has gradually turned into a state of affairs in which Washington is actively maneuvering to bring the two sides of the strait into conflict with each other, plunging Beijing into the mire of a Taiwan Strait war and thereby depleting the mainland’s military strength while calling on the international community to contain and impose sanctions on Beijing. This performance resembles a version 2.0 of the America Skepticism Theory playbook like the one currently dominating developments in the Russia-Ukraine war.

At first, when the upper echelons of those in power were confronted with the emergence of America Skepticism Theory in Taiwanese society, they launched fierce public opinion offensives, invariably mobilizing their internet armies and sparing no effort in crushing the opposition parties, no matter which version of the theory commentators preferred. Who would have imagined that Sun Xiaoya, the director of the American Institute in Taiwan’s Taipei office, would unexpectedly step forward to state his opinion on American Skepticism Theory, asserting that it was not at all the same thing as anti-Americanism, and that protecting dissent was the very spirit of freedom of speech? As a result, those public opinion offensives have ended abruptly and been laid to rest. However, they also made Taiwanese people pay more attention to the evolution of public opinion on Taiwan among U.S. academic and security circles and caused all parties to devote more thought and discussion to what Washington might have up its sleeve.

The two above-mentioned articles will naturally attract the attention of Taiwanese society because of their authors, the media in which they are published or channels through which they are distributed, and their content. However, it must be noted that since these articles are written in English and distributed to a specific readership, we have to understand whom they are really designed to appeal to. Take, for example, Lumbaca’s suggestion that Taiwan actively engage in guerrilla warfare through armed resistance should it fall into the hands of the Chinese Communist Party. This is not necessarily meant to encourage the Taiwanese people to accept such a viewpoint, but rather to allow U.S. national security advisers to examine Taiwan’s security situation from that perspective and propose solutions from the point of view of American interests.

Citing Ukraine as an example, Lumbaca constantly touts the ability of armed resistance to turn the tide of war, rendering the invaders unable to extricate themselves and forcing them into retreat. But what is both comical and absurd is that Lumbaca does not mention a single word about America’s own painful experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan, where, after 20 years of suppressing resistance forces, it suffered setbacks in its appeasement campaigns to maintain social stability. Writing styles and standards for content selection such as this will really not garner any compliments.

What is even more absurd is that Lumbaca also calls for the establishment of an overseas government-in-exile, claiming that it will be “recognized as a legitimate sovereign authority” representing Taiwan by some countries. Given that the number of countries in the international community that currently recognize the Republic of China and maintain formal diplomatic relations with it can be counted on the fingers of one hand, this commentator fears it is all the more difficult to determine whether any such government-in-exile would represent the ROC or some other iteration of Taiwan — or whether any countries would recognize it. But given careful consideration, this reveals itself to be nothing more than a flight of fancy.

Although, where Taiwan is concerned, the way in which Lumbaca’s manuscript makes it clear from the outset that “[d]eterrence has failed. The People’s Liberation Army has invaded and occupied Taiwan” is pessimistic in the extreme, he does maintain a serious scholarly attitude. That said, there is clearly still room for a deeper understanding of Taiwanese society and the actual situation across the strait.

In recent years, the governing class has invested large sums of money in attracting many retired members of the U.S. military to conduct research in Taiwan, who have often appeared in Taiwan’s media and on political programs or have had pieces published in the Western media, expressing nonsensical views, ranging from the absurd to the atrocious. In contrast, Lumbaca and the think tank he serves are of a considerable standard. If we want to manage relations with American think tanks and attract scholars to Taiwan, then rather than looking for people indiscriminately and at random, we would be better off inviting scholars of Lumbaca’s caliber to come for research. After all, taxpayers need to get their money’s worth, and it does not pay to skimp on quality.

By Zhang Jing, Senior Research Fellow, Society for Strategic Studies, Republic of China


洋和尚唱衰台灣 助長疑美論聲浪

2023-09-16 08:00 聯合報/張競/中華戰略學會資深研究員

9月14日美國西點軍校現代戰爭研究所刊出出身於美國綠扁帽特種部隊,目前在直屬美國國防部位於夏威夷之井上健亞太安全研究中心教授非正規戰爭、反恐與特種作戰課程之藍巴卡博士,以「每位台灣民眾都是抵抗運動成員:準備對應中國占領」為題之稿件,倡議若是台灣淪入中共手中後,應以何種方式推動武裝抵抗活動。

無獨有偶,同日美國國會山莊報刊出目前華府智庫「國防優先基金會」擔任資深研究員之美國陸軍退役中校戴維斯,以「假若中國入侵台灣,吾人不應選擇與其開戰」,在文中作者有感於目前華盛頓與北京嚴重交惡,而且就雙方所採政策觀察,顯然邁向衝突風險極高,而其中關鍵焦點就是台灣。

因此資深研究員戴維斯先生強調應嚴肅審視美國國家利益,主張就算是中國大陸入侵台灣,華盛頓不應因此選擇與北京開戰,最後導致美國軍力嚴重損傷,反而應趁機保全實力,讓中共解放軍在台灣陷入困境,使其在師老兵疲狀況下消耗戰力,從而讓美國對中國大陸在軍事上仍保持領先地位,維護其國家安全利益。

其實最近幾年來,美國安全戰略圈內人士,其中包括學者專家、媒體評論者、退役將領與離職官員在內,都不斷針對台海情勢撰寫文稿,提出各種看法與建議,但亦在國內經過媒體轉載後,引發台灣鄉親對於美國政策產生高度疑慮。

筆者本身就曾經撰稿指出,所謂「疑美論」其實已經從當初擔憂台海發生衝突,美國坐視不管,不願派兵干預出手救援之1.0版本,逐漸轉化成華盛頓在積極布局,希望導引兩岸發生衝突,讓北京深陷台海戰爭泥淖,藉此消耗中國大陸實力,並且號召國際社會圍堵與制裁北京,上演類似當前主導俄烏戰爭發展政治劇本之「疑美論」2.0版。

當初執政高層面對台灣社會浮現「疑美論」時,不管論者係傾向那個版本,無不發動網軍側翼,擺出要全力將對方鬥臭鬥垮架勢,展開凌厲輿論攻勢。誰知美國在台協會台北辦事處處長孫曉雅居然出面,針對疑美論表態聲稱反美和疑美並不相同,保護異議是言論自由精神;結果讓此等輿論攻勢戛然而止無疾而終,但卻亦讓台灣鄉親更加注意美國學界與安全戰略圈內,到底針對台灣輿論走向發展軌跡,亦讓各方更積極思考與探討華盛頓葫蘆內到底是在賣何種膏藥。

前述兩篇文稿因為其作者、刊載媒體或發布管道以及內容自然會引發台灣社會關注,但是在此必須提醒,由於此等稿件係以英文寫作,其所發布管道又有特定讀者群,因此吾人必須理解,其真正訴求對象到底是誰?比方說是藍巴卡博士倡議台灣就算淪落中共手中,亦要積極運用武裝抵抗遂行游擊戰爭,其內容未見得是要鼓動台灣民眾接受此觀點,而是要讓美國國家安全謀士從此等視野來審視台灣安全情勢,並且以美國利益角度切入,提出解套方案。

藍巴卡博士援引烏克蘭為例,不斷吹捧武裝抵抗能夠主宰命運扭轉戰局,讓入侵者無法解套被迫知難而退;但令人感到滑稽與荒唐的是美國本身在伊拉克與阿富汗,經過20年鎮壓反抗勢力,在綏靖作戰維護社會穩定時遭致挫敗之慘痛經驗,藍巴卡博士卻隻字不提,此種寫作風格與內容取捨標準,實在讓人不敢恭維。

更荒唐的是藍巴卡博士還呼籲要在海外成立流亡政府,並且聲稱會有些國家承認該流亡政府具有代表台灣之合法主權權責機構,對比現在國際社會承認中華民國維持正式外交關係國家已經屈指可數,未來此項流亡政府究竟是代表中華民國還是另外之台灣國,會不會有國家承認,恐怕更是難上加難,仔細想想就會理解到這真是天方夜譚。

雖然藍巴卡博士文稿開宗明義地就斷言說:「嚇阻已經失敗,解放軍業已入侵並占領台灣。」聽起來真是唱衰台灣至極,但其治學態度還算是認真,但卻顯然對於台灣社會以及兩岸實際情勢還有必須繼續深入認識空間。

近年來執政高層投下大把銀子,拉攏諸多美軍退役人員來台進行研究,並且經常在台灣出現於媒體政論節目,或是在西方媒體積極撰稿投書,講些極度荒誕慘不忍睹之胡扯觀點。對比起來,藍巴卡博士到底還是出身有些水準,亦在具有相當水準之智庫服務,假若要經營美國智庫關係與拉攏學者,與其生葷不忌胡亂找人,不如邀請像藍巴卡博士此等水準學者來台研究;畢竟納稅人銀子不能亂花,就算要買個蛋也要買個像樣的蛋!
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