Major Changes to US Global Strategy Unlikely Despite Trump’s Comeback

Domestic factors in the United States will determine the outcome of the 2024 presidential election.

U.S. politics are divided and polarized, with supporters of the Democratic and Republican parties forming clear-cut, generally evenly matched camps, unmoved by each other’s exhortations and almost unconditionally supportive of their own political leaders. The most prominent example of this is Donald Trump, who has seen his popularity rise among Republicans and appears to be the Republican front-runner for the 2024 presidential election despite being embroiled in multiple prosecutions.

In the past, both the Democratic and Republican parties have valued financial capital to the detriment of the working class, but the latter has now become an object of contention between the Democrats and the Republicans. The working class consists of various ethnic groups, those who lack college degrees, and those paid by the hour — factory workers, home-care workers, delivery drivers, kindergarten teachers, barbers and hairdressers, waiters, farm laborers and cashiers — all of whom were considered essential service workers during the COVID-19 pandemic. Both the Democratic and Republican parties have realized that these people are key to 2024 election victory.

The American working class is immense, encompasses all walks of life, and is not particularly tractable. It is more atomized and independent-minded than in previous generations, and more susceptible to conspiracy theories and cynicism. Labor unions have seen a resurgence in popularity and activism, but in spite of this, only one in 10 American workers belongs to a union. The working class in the U.S. has been forsaken by that country’s inequitable economic system, even as it is bombarded with headlines dominated by successful people. Some people succumb to the proliferation of drugs, less and less convinced of their ability to empathize with the stories of those who pull themselves up by their bootstraps, but who also do not consider themselves down but not out; increasingly, they worship celebrities who pursue power out of self-interest, and Trump is just such a celebrity. Trump has abandoned platform catch phrases like tax cuts and deregulation that once greatly appealed to the Republican base, pivoting instead to voters concerned with crime rates, immigration and “what represents Americans.” His aptitude for political mobilization and his strategy of appealing directly to the masses is well-suited to the current political climate in the U.S.

There is strong chance that Trump will return to the White House; with a year left in its term, the Biden administration, on the other hand, has become a lame duck.

Recently, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu openly rejected a two-state solution to the conflict with the Palestinians, and to a certain extent, he dared do so because he is pinning his hopes on Trump. As president, Trump brokered the Abraham Accords, which established diplomatic relations between Israel and certain Arab countries, including the United Arab Emirates. On Dec. 6, 2023, Senate Republicans rejected a proposal by Biden that incuded sfinancial aid for Ukraine and Israel because Republicans rejected aid to Ukraine while also criticizing Biden for not being strong enough in his support of Israel.

In view of Trump's potential return to the White House, many governments and some multinationals are reducing or deferring engagements with the Biden administration pending the outcome of the election. But if Trump wins a second term, he will not change the United States' global strategy.

Because of how odious Trump is and the fact that he is a populist, Western mainstream media and American political cultural elite generally regard him as something of a nightmare, making him an outsider.

Most countries in the West, especially those in the European Union, dread a Trump comeback because of the foreign policy decisions he made while in office, especially his withdrawal from treaties and organizations and the way he put down American allies. Biden, on the other hand, values his allies and friends, and returned the U.S. to the World Health Organization and the Paris Climate Agreement, something that was viewed was an antidote to the actions Trump took. However, Biden's putting U.S. interests first and Trump’s “Make America Great Again” propaganda amount to much the same thing, and should Trump win a second term, we may not necessarily get a repeat performance of his withdrawal from treaties and organizations.

Will Trump sacrifice Ukraine to become a better bedfellow of Russia? As president, Trump met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Finnish capital, inadvertently demonstrating an intention to improve U.S.-Russian relations — but Trump dropped the idea in the face of fierce and collective opposition from European allies, U.S. domestic policy-making circles and the public. Even if Trump were to return to the White House, he would be unable to change course on the Russia-Ukraine conflict even if he wanted to.

Given that Trump took office in January 2017, his visit to China that November, and his administration’s announcement, the following month, that it would adjust the United States' global strategy pinpointing China and Russia as its enemies, one can view American world strategy as the product of extended deliberation among its decision-making community. It cannot be influenced by any one individual. Even if Trump ends up back in the White House, he will inherit Biden's global strategy that designates China as its main opponent and Russia as the most urgent threat, among other major decisions. This is dictated by the same logic according to which Biden inherited Trump’s approach to China and other important foreign relations decisions. Admittedly, under these rapidly changing global geopolitical and geoeconomic conditions, Trump could revise his approach; he has already said he would abolish the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework if reelected, but he may replace Biden’s “small courtyard and high wall” with a broader decoupling from China.

In short, many small and medium-sized countries are watching the U.S. election with trepidation and mistrust. But be that as it may, China must prepare for the fact that whether the next president is Trump or Biden, the next president will continue the advance toward accelerated containment, encirclement and the suppression of our country.

The author is a senior commentator for Ta Kung Pao.