Expert Eye: Blinken and the US-China-Taiwan Triangle

Published in United Daily News
(Taiwan) on 28 April 2024
by Tang Shao-Cheng (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Matthew McKay. Edited by Michelle Bisson.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken has visited China for the second time since last June. Unlike last year and as agreed to by both parties, this year’s visit came at China’s invitation, and you can construe it in terms of hardware and software.

Put simply, the “hardware” included the specifics and composition of the airport reception committee. The fact that Blinken was greeted on the tarmac by Kong Fuan, director general of the Shanghai Foreign Affairs Office, and that Beijing didn’t roll out the red carpet for him when he arrived in the capital, shows that China deliberately downplayed Blinken’s visit. More likely than not, this was due to Blinken’s pointed criticism of human rights issues in China prior to his visit and to Congress passing a bill to aid Taiwan, as well as its banning of TikTok. It was a situation reminiscent of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s visit last year, when she wasn’t even given a ride to and from the airport.

Then there was the team accompanying Blinken, which included Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Daniel Kritenbrink; Assistant Secretary of State for International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs Todd Robinson; Ambassador-at-Large for Cyberspace and Digital Policy Nathaniel Fick; and Under Secretary of State for Public Diplomacy and Public Affairs Elizabeth Allen.

Of particular interest is the fact that Kritenbrink visited Beijing only a week ago; more unusually still, on that occasion he met with Taiwan Affairs Office Deputy Director Qiu Kaiming, who, as a student of Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference Chairman Wang Huning (aka “China’s Kissinger”), naturally carries a lot of weight. This showed that Taiwan and cross-strait issues were clearly high on Blinken’s list of priorities. You could glean the remaining topics of concern on the U.S. agenda from the members of the U.S. delegation, with Under Secretary of State Allen’s presence meant to strengthen civilian exchanges between the U.S. and China. Evidently, the U.S. remains interested in easing overall tensions with China.

Let’s examine the sticking point in current U.S.-China relations. In a nutshell, China looks forward to cooperation rather than conflict, and that this is the only way it can continue to develop and grow; this is why it made a special point of understanding Blinken correctly. Especially with May 20 [the date of Taiwanese President-elect Lai Ching-te’s inauguration] around the corner, Beijing’s top considerations are cross-strait matters and issues pertaining to the economy, trade, technology and the South China Sea. But Xi Jinping wasn’t informed until the very last minute that he would be receiving Blinken and his entourage, and the handshake they shared lasted barely a second, making the frostiness between the two apparent.

The American position, on the other hand, is characterized more by conflict than by cooperation, because it already feels threatened by China on certain technological and economic fronts and must therefore suppress China — without completely decoupling from it. In addition, with President Joe Biden facing an impasse in his reelection campaign, the international environment is extremely important. Yet after more than two years of the Russia-Ukraine war, Russia is not only still standing firm but even pressing forward step by step. This has forced Congress to allocate $61 billion in aid to Ukraine and consider imposing sanctions on Beijing, given that the U.S. suspects China of helping Russia behind the scenes.

Hence the U.S. proposed the following list of agenda items on this trip: Making progress on key issues; clearly and directly communicating concerns on bilateral, regional, and global issues; and responsibly managing competition so that it does not result in miscalculation or conflict. This, alongside China’s position mentioned earlier, is what this commentator refers to as the software, the give and take of negotiations and gamesmanship between the two great powers.

But since relations between the U.S. and China diverge more than they converge, expectations on both sides for Blinken’s visit were limited. Even so, the U.S. and China still have a shared interest in managing their differences, smoothing transitions, and “fighting without breaking,” and some of the press has gone so far as to claim that the point of Blinken’s China visit was to pave the way for a later visit by Biden. For the U.S., this may only have been a test balloon, but because the visit was no trivial matter, those concerned must still be evaluating its pros and cons. At least Biden remains more predictable than Donald Trump.

The author is director of the Asia Pacific Research Foundation, Taiwan.


【專家之眼】布林肯與美中台

2024-04-28 07:31 聯合報/ 湯紹成/亞太綜合研究院院長

繼去年六月之後,美國國務卿布林肯二度訪中,與上回雙方商定不同的是,此次是應中方之邀來訪,這可從硬體與軟體的結構來加以分析。

所謂硬體,簡單說是包括接機規格與團隊組成。這次布林肯先到上海,是由上海外事辦主任孔福安在停機坪迎接,到北京也沒有紅地毯,這就可以看出中方刻意貶抑其到訪的規格。這極為可能是因布林肯在出訪之前,特別抨擊了大陸的人權問題,以及美國國會通過援台法案以及禁止Tik Tok所致。此乃與年前歐盟執委會主席馮德萊恩到訪的情況相似,當時根本連接送機都免了。

再者,就是隨同布林肯訪問的團隊,其中包含助理國務卿康達,負責國際麻醉品和執法事務的助理國務卿羅賓遜,負責網絡空間的巡迴大使菲克,以及負責公共外交事務的副國務卿艾倫。

尤為值得關注的是,康達才在一周前在北京訪問,更特殊的是,他當時還與國台辦副主任仇開明會談,而仇又是三朝國師暨政協主席王滬寧的學生,自然具有重要的功能。由此可見,台灣與兩岸問題自然是此次布林肯到訪的重要議題。其餘美方關心的議題,就可以從此次的訪團人員看出,而副國務卿艾倫的目的,就是有意加強美中兩國的民間交流,可見美方也有意整體緩和與中國的關係。

再來檢驗當前美中兩國關係的癥結。簡而言之,中方的立場是期盼合作大於鬥爭, 如此才能持續發展壯大,因而此次對布林肯特別提出樹立正確認知。尤其520在即,兩岸、經貿科技與南海問題,都是北京最重要的考量。而此次中方一直至最後一刻,才通知習近平主席會接見布林肯一行,況且兩人握手的時間大約只有一秒鐘,可見雙方之間關係的冷漠。

而美方的立場相反,是鬥爭大於合作,因為中方已經在一些科技與經貿方面讓美方感到威脅,因而必須加以抑制,但又不能完全與中國脫鉤。此外,當前拜登總統正在競選連任,而且選情進入膠著狀態,國際的環境極為重要。但俄羅斯在兩年多的俄烏戰爭中仍屹立不搖,還步步進逼,迫使美國國會通過610億美元的援烏撥款法案,更認為北京在幕後暗助俄羅斯,故有意加以制裁。

因而此次美方提出的議題清單:在關鍵問題上取得進展;明確、直接地傳達對雙邊、區域以及全球性議題的關切;負責任地管理競爭,以免導致誤判或衝突。與上述中方的立場一道,這就是筆者所謂的軟體部分,也就是兩大國之間你來我往的談判與博弈。

但因美中關係的分歧大於共識,因而雙方都對於此次布林肯的訪問期待有限。雖然如此,美中但都還有管控分歧、平穩過渡與鬥而不破的共同利益。甚至有媒體稱,此次布林肯到訪,是為了拜登總統訪中鋪路,這在當前可能還是美方的一個試探氣球,因茲事體大,相關各方必還在評估利弊,至少拜登還是比川普可預測。
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