A Necessary Rapprochement

Published in El Heraldo de Mexico
(Mexico) on 29 April 2024
by José Carreño Figueras (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Stephen Routledge. Edited by Patricia Simoni.
Republican Sen. John Kennedy recently put it in a question: "Is (AMLO) a friend of the United States?"

Between whether it's apples or pears, some U.S. specialists in Mexico expect the next president to initiate new rapprochements with Washington as soon as he or she is elected.

According to that view, it is an important task, especially to put relations back on track and move beyond a stage in which statements have been so unpredictable that they have become a challenge.

Both President Andrés Manuel López Obrador and the former president — now Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump — and some of his allies have been protagonists in this regard.

Formally, bilateral relations have been good. There is security cooperation, there is dialogue in terms of trade, there is a traditional understanding of encapsulating conflicting issues to avoid contamination of the rest of the agenda.

But also, from the U.S. point of view, "they could be better." And that's most likely the sentiment on the Mexican side, as well, based on grievances of their own.

In Washington, in fact, at the levels of bureaucracy, analysis centers and congressional corridors, it is considered that the relationship is not as good as it seems, requiring a relaunch in several areas.

There is a dichotomy of thinking in Washington toward the Mexican government. "We need their collaboration,"* U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland recently said, though Garland himself believes it could be better, both in terms of migration control and drug trafficking.

But the plea for collaboration prevails, according to Maureen Meyer of the Washington Office on Latin America.

Part of the problem is that migration and drugs are issues that have been on the bilateral agenda for decades and, summarized in what is seen here as the border crisis, have become very important in the U.S. election campaign.

But part of it is also that some of President Lopez Obrador's statements and proposals create many doubts. Republican Sen. John Kennedy recently put it in a question: "Is (AMLO) a friend of the United States?"*

At the same time, however, the Mexican government has accepted multiple policies promoted by the United States, especially with regard to stopping caravans of migrants from Central America and various deportations of drug trafficking kingpins.

But there are also complaints about irritating trade issues, such as disagreements over energy and genetically modified corn, and especially about Mexico's allowing Chinese companies to use it as a conduit to circumvent bans on steel imports.

In addition, there are doubts about Mexico's infrastructure and its capacity to adequately receive and take advantage of the investment contemplated in "nearshoring"; the relocation of industries already established in China; the need to work on the reestablishment of bonds of trust and confidence; and the need to establish a new relationship of trust between the two countries.

And this is not about ideologies. It is about economic pragmatism and geopolitical reality.

The fact, in any case, is that there is enough unfinished business and misunderstanding that the next occupant of the presidential chair in Mexico may feel compelled to make Washington an urgent stopover as soon as he or she is elected.

*Editor’s Note: Although accurately translated, this quoted passage could not be independently verified.



El senador republicano John Kennedy lo puso recientemente en una pregunta "¿(AMLO) es amigo de Estados Unidos?"

WASHINGTON. Entre si son peras o manzanas, algunos especialistas estadounidenses en México esperan que la próxima Presidenta inicie nuevos acercamientos con Washington tan pronto sea electa.

De acuerdo con esa visión, es una tarea importante, sobre todo para reencarrilar las relaciones y rebasar una etapa en la que se han dado declaraciones tan impredecibles que se convirtieron en desafío.

Tanto el presidente Andrés Manuel López Obrador como el expresidente y ahora candidato presidencial republicano, Donald Trump y algunos de sus aliados, han sido protagónicos en ese sentido.

Formalmente, las relaciones bilaterales son buenas. Hay cooperación de seguridad, hay diálogo en términos comerciales, hay un entendimiento tradicional de encapsular temas conflictivos para evitar la contaminación del resto de la agenda.

Pero también, desde el punto de vista estadounidense, "podrían ser mejores". Es probable que del lado mexicano haya también ese sentimiento, sobre la base de quejas propias.

En Washington, de hecho, a niveles de burocracia, de centros de análisis, de corredores de Congreso se considera que la relación no está tan bien como parece y necesita un relanzamiento en varios terrenos.
Hay en Washington una dicotomía de pensamientos hacia el gobierno de México. "Necesitamos su colaboración", dijo hace poco Merrick Garland, Procurador General de Estados Unidos, pero el propio Garland considera que podría ser mejor, tanto en lo que se refiere al control de migración como el narcotráfico.

Pero el alegato de necesidad de colaboración es lo que prevalece, de acuerdo con Maureen Meyer, del Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA).

Parte del problema ciertamente es que migración y drogas son temas que llevan décadas en la agenda bilateral y resumidos en lo que aquí se ve como crisis en la frontera, se han convertido en muy importantes en Estados Unidos en campaña electoral.

Pero parte también es que algunas de las declaraciones y las propuestas del presidente López Obrador crean aquí muchas dudas.

El senador republicano John Kennedy lo puso recientemente en una pregunta "¿(AMLO) es amigo de Estados Unidos?"

Paralelamente, sin embargo, el gobierno mexicano ha aceptado muchas políticas impulsadas por Estados Unidos, especialmente en lo que se refiere a detener a caravanas de migrantes procedentes de Centroamérica y varias deportaciones de jefes narcotraficantes.

Pero igualmente hay quejas sobre temas comerciales que implican irritantes, como las divergencias en cuanto a energía y maíz transgénico, pero especialmente en lo que se refiere a que México permite que empresas chinas lo usen como conducto para circunvenir prohibiciones relativas a la importación de acero.

Y si a ello se agrega que hay dudas sobre la infraestructura y la capacidad de México para recibir y aprovechar adecuadamente la inversión contemplada en el "nearshoring", la reubicación de industrias ante establecidas en China, la necesidad de trabajar en el restablecimiento de vínculos de confianza se hace más importante.

Y no se trata de ideologías. Se trata de pragmatismo económico y realidad geopolítica.

El hecho, en todo caso, es que hay suficientes pendientes y malentendidos como para que la próxima persona ocupante de la silla presidencial en México pueda sentirse compelida a hacer de Washington una escala urgente tan pronto sea electa.
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