A Swift and Historic Verdict with Uncertain Political Repercussions

Published in Journal de Montreal
(Canada) on 30 May 2024
by Luc Laliberté (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Reg Moss. Edited by Patricia Simoni.
Twelve jury members surprised many observers by quickly reaching a verdict in a case involving some 30 charges.

Such brief deliberations hinted at a guilty verdict, but that Donald Trump would be found guilty on the 34 counts was far from expected.

Before looking back on the trial and its possible repercussions, it is worth taking stock of what has just happened. For the first time in the history of the United States, a president has been accused and convicted of a crime.

In recent weeks, then, Trump has been found guilty of defamation, sexual assault, fraud and now a crime.

The Greatest Liar of All Time

Before and during the trial, observers and analysts identified Michael Cohen’s testimony as potentially the weakest link in prosecutor Alvin Bragg’s case.

Trump’s lawyer, Todd Blanche, targeted Cohen during closing arguments, hammering the message that he was the “GLOAT,” the “greatest liar of all time.”

Blanche likely underestimated the impact of the other witnesses and evidence presented. More importantly, he likely underestimated the credibility of his client, for Trump’s practices are well known and documented.

If there was any hesitation while awaiting the jury’s decision, it is because, to be found guilty on all counts, its members would have to be convinced of Trump’s intentions beyond all reasonable doubt.

Evidence like this is difficult to establish; it is likely that the other witnesses who spoke about the businessman confirmed his mania for scandalous dealings.

An Uncertain Political Impact

Recent polls have shown that a guilty verdict would have little influence on the electorate. Moreover, ratings on the specialty networks that focused on the trial were disappointing, revealing little public interest.

However, in a particularly tight election, the old adage that “every vote counts” cannot be ignored. If there is an effect, it will not be favorable to the Republican candidate; independent voters in swing states might opt for the incumbent Joe Biden.

Another political impact to consider? The reaction of the Republican candidate’s supporters. Convinced that Trump is the victim of a conspiracy, they revealed on Jan. 6, 2021, that they are ready for anything.


Un verdict rapide et historique dont les retombées politiques restent incertaines

Les douze jurés ont surpris bien des observateurs en offrant rapidement un verdict dans une affaire qui comptait une trentaine de chefs d’accusation.

Des délibérations aussi brèves laissaient présager un verdict de culpabilité. J’étais cependant loin de m’attendre à ce qu’il soit reconnu coupable des 34 chefs d’accusation.

Avant de revenir sur le procès et ses possibles retombées politiques, prenons la mesure de ce qui vient de se produire. Pour la première fois de l’histoire des États-Unis, un président a été accusé et reconnu coupable d’un crime.

Dans les dernières semaines, Trump a donc été reconnu coupable de diffamation et d’agression sexuelle, de fraude et, aujourd’hui, d’un crime
Le plus grand menteur de tous les temps

Avant et pendant le procès, tous les observateurs et analystes avaient identifié le témoignage de Michael Cohen comme étant potentiellement le maillon faible du dossier du procureur Alvin Bragg.

L’avocat de Donald Trump, Todd Blanche, avait bien ciblé Cohen dans son plaidoyer de clôture, martelant le message qu’il était le GLOAT (Greatest liar of all time), le plus grand menteur de tous les temps.

Blanche a probablement sous-estimé la portée des autres témoignages et des preuves déposées. Plus important, il a probablement sous-estimé la crédibilité de son client. Les pratiques de Donald Trump sont connues et documentées.

Si j’hésitais en attendant la décision des jurés, c’est que pour le reconnaître coupable sur toute la ligne, on devait être convaincu hors de tout doute raisonnable de ses intentions.

Cette preuve est difficile à démontrer et on peut penser que les autres témoins qui ont parlé de l’homme d’affaires ont confirmé sa manie des tractations sulfureuses.

Un impact politique incertain

De récents sondages révélaient qu’un verdict de culpabilité dans cette histoire n’aurait que peu d’influence sur l’électorat. D’ailleurs, les cotes d’écoute des chaînes spécialisées qui s’intéressaient à ce procès étaient décevantes, démontrant le peu d’intérêt de la population.

Cependant, dans une élection qui s’annonce particulièrement serrée, on ne peut négliger le vieil adage selon lequel «chaque vote compte». S’il y a un effet, il ne sera pas favorable au candidat républicain et les électeurs indépendants des États pivots pourraient lui préférer Joe Biden.

Autre impact politique à envisager? La réaction des partisans du candidat républicain. Convaincus que Trump est victime d’une machination, ils ont déjà démontré le 6 janvier 2021 qu’ils sont prêts à tout.



This post appeared on the front page as a direct link to the original article with the above link .

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