Just an Opinion … What If Trump Returns?

The future of U.S.-Arab relations in a new Trump administration.

With the possibility of Donald Trump’s return to the White House, the Arab world is preparing for repercussions that may reshape regional dynamics. During Trump’s term as president, American foreign policy underwent massive change, especially in the Middle East. Trump’s decisions to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and to promote Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights complicated Israel-Palestine relations and set back the United States’ role as an honest mediator.

It is likely that Trump will continue to prefer Israel in a second term, which could further marginalize Palestinian aspirations. Trump’s latest remarks indicate a harsher position on Palestinians in the United States, especially in American universities. This means strengthening support for Israel in a way that may lead to aggravated tensions between Israelis and Palestinians and within the greater Arab community. This will only broaden the divide between groups and exacerbate resentment.

The fact that Trump’s approach to international relations values “economic and strategic advantage” was evident in facilitating the Abraham Accords, which normalized relations between Israel and several Arab states and reshaped regional dynamics. These agreements demonstrated, in what was a dismal failure, a shift toward alliances driven by political considerations rather than resolving long-standing issues.

Trump’s hard-line position on Iran, exemplified by the United States’ withdrawal from the nuclear agreement and imposition of harsh tariffs, altered the region’s balance of power in a major way. It is also likely that the “new” Trump administration will increase economic pressure on Iran and escalate potential military conflicts. This may disrupt the Gulf region’s stability and affect international energy markets and the economies of neighboring Arab states.

Additionally, Trump’s policies with regard to Arab states reflect his resentment of multilateralism and his preference for bilateral deals. This approach may weaken collective Arab efforts to solve regional problems, from possible Israeli military operations against Lebanon to the human rights crisis in Yemen. So the absence of a comprehensive American strategy may leave the Arab states to deal with these challenges without support or steadfast connection with Washington.

Final Opinion

The former president is not guaranteed to win a second term. However, the progress he has made to date makes it a very real possibility for which the Arab world should prepare. A second Trump term could mean divisive policies and intensification of current conflicts for the Arab world. While some organizations may prefer Trump’s “direct” approach to creating “deals,” the wider repercussions of a Trump term for the region’s stability, the rights of Palestinians and Arab American relationships may be extremely disturbing. While the Arab world faces this uncertain future, achieving strategic independence and diversifying alliances have become more important than ever before.