An America Prone to Violence

American history has seen many assassinations of presidents and presidential candidates before. For this very reason, we should be wary of rushing to declare the gunshots fired in Butler a direct or even inevitable consequence of the current irreconcilable political division, even if the victim of this attempt, Donald Trump, consistently does more than almost anyone else to foment and capitalize on hatred. We must wait to see what the investigations reveal regarding the motive and actions of the young man who committed this “sick” crime, as President Joe Biden was right to call it.

To look at it another way, one thing is particularly clear. Whatever drove the gunman to carry out his violent act, its consequences could prove devastating. Even before the event, quite a few of Trump’s supporters were already convinced that Biden and the Democrats would do everything they could to prevent Trump from returning to the White House.

Conspiracy Theories about the Democrats

Many millions of Republicans remain convinced that Biden and his people rigged the election to keep Trump out of office four years ago. A shockingly large subgroup of these people even lay the blame for spreading the Covid-19 virus at the Democrats’ door, since — according to their conspiracy theory — it was only the conditions imposed during the pandemic which enabled the election to be manipulated in Biden’s favor.

Meanwhile, an almost unanimous chorus of Republican politicians is spreading the claim that the Biden administration, and its Democratic allies, are pursuing the four criminal cases against Trump in order to eliminate their political opponent from the contest. And Trump wears his New York court conviction like a badge of honor. For years, Trump and his associates have not had a single favorable word to say about the judiciary or the FBI.

It does not matter what comes out of the FBI investigation in Pennsylvania, how emphatically Biden distances himself from the unacceptable violence, nor how Trump seeks to exploit the dramatic event. Millions of Americans will probably still be left in no doubt that the “establishment” triggered the next stage of its fight against Trump, that is, against “the people,” in Butler on Saturday.

Heavily Armed Trump Supporters

A hard core of these Trump supporters includes heavily armed men who would not hesitate to resort to violence themselves, as they would doubtless claim, in “defense of democracy.” Jan. 6, 2021, in Washington already demonstrated that. Just a few days ago, a group of renowned right-wing and radical right-wing ideologues with close ties to Trump warned in a detailed report that the Biden administration could "circumvent constitutional limits and disregard the will of the voters should they demand a new president.” The warning came from the same people close to the Heritage Foundation think tank, who had already drawn up a kind of blueprint for revolutionary, authoritarian government for Trump months ago with their Project 2025.

Of all Americans, Trump is perhaps the only one who might now be capable of calming emotions. The biggest possible stage is his for the task, at the four-day Republican Party convention in Milwaukee starting this Monday. There is very little to suggest, however, that Trump, who came within a hair’s breadth of losing his life on Saturday, will take stock and do what he should for the sake of the country.

His instinct is to do otherwise, as was clear from the clenched fist and immediate calls to his followers to “fight, fight, fight” at the scene of the shooting. It is true that Trump appealed for calm following the storm on the Capitol three-and-a-half years ago — a fig leaf he and his people continue to hide behind to this day. And Trump has now once again urged Americans to stand united, while also leaving it up to other Republicans to make recriminations against the Democrats. At the same time, Trump has consistently defended, if not incited, the perpetrators of violence on previous occasions. At the beginning of his first presidential term, he vowed to end the “American carnage” and has assured Americans, “I’m your retribution” in the current election campaign.

Biden found the right words this weekend. He announced his intention to speak with Trump, expressed his sympathy for the other victims of the shooting, and appealed for a cooling down of political rhetoric. The shooting and the Trump Show in Milwaukee may briefly divert attention away from the debate about the 81-year-old sitting president’s mental acuity.

On the other hand, the Democrats’ dilemma has become even more acute, since the failed attempt on his life has made Trump appear even stronger. Biden, meanwhile, is now the commander-in-chief of a country in which it was possible for an (alleged) political assassination to take place. He has already ordered an independent inquiry into why the Secret Service failed in its duty to secure the rally.

Maintaining stability is one of the most important functions a government has at such a time. A chaotic contest to decide the Democratic presidential nomination would be anything but stable. Not a lot unlike a Trump election victory.