Democrats Face Test of Political Acuity*
Kamala Harris has changed the mood in America. It can only come down to one question: Do you want Donald Trump or an actual future for the country? The Democratic National Convention in Chicago is set to test the party’s political acuity.
Kamala Harris has achieved something remarkable in just four weeks. The opinion polls show a reversal of the political dynamic in the United States. The Democrats now hold the lead in more of the battleground states, while Donald Trump appears to be in a deep hole. Voters’ expectations are no longer preoccupied with the past, but more concerned with the future.
It remains to be seen whether the woman who is now taking the helm of the Democratic Party can continue to build on this trend and steer a clear course to victory in the presidential election. The answer is maybe, but maybe not. Party-political allegiances are not amenable to trending vibes in America; rather, they are a deeply entrenched social phenomenon. Hillary Clinton won an overwhelming majority of votes cast across the country in 2016, but missed out on the presidency owing to the built-in unfairness of the electoral system. It ultimately comes down to a few tens of thousands of votes in five or six states, as well as mobilizing voter turnout in certain districts, and the occasional missed opportunity or isolated gaffe.
For this reason, this week’s Democratic National Convention is not just about celebrating the party’s recently accomplished change of candidate. Just as, in hindsight, the Republican Convention faded into a tedious apotheosis-of-Trump fest, the stakes are high for the Democrats’ gathering. It will have lasting implications for how the party and its nominee are perceived. The Trump faction is merely biding its time to portray Harris as the puppet of a woke leftist revolutionary movement intent on covering up America’s decline out of loyalty to Joe Biden.
The convention has the potential to reinforce this Biden-Harris image. Even before Harris became the presidential candidate, it was already apparent Chicago was destined to be the venue for a test of the Democrats’ position on the thorny question of Palestinian and Israeli affairs. Although Harris has not shied away from leveling admonishments and disapprobation at Israel, she will not be able to meet the high expectations that undecided Democratic voters voiced during the primaries. Israel remains Israel — a fixed geopolitical factor for any prospective U.S. president. Harris cannot allow the convention to become a conference on war and peace, particularly given the misplaced comparison with the legendary 1968 Democratic Convention, held amid racial unrest, student protests and the Vietnam War of that time. 2024 is not 1968. America is not now at war.
Kamala Harris Cannot Renounce Her Association with Biden
The second challenge facing Harris is how to deal with Biden. The party, and more particularly Democratic voters, would like to put some distance between themselves and the serving president. The demonization of Biden has grown so out of proportion that it leaves Harris in an impossible bind. As the serving vice president, she cannot renounce her association with Biden on either political or personal grounds. Apart from which, there is absolutely no reason to chime in with the doomsayers. The unemployment figure remains a low 4.3%, and inflation is at 2.9%. The supposedly forgotten middle class has benefited economically from the Biden administration.
Harris would be falling into a trap if she turned the convention into a test of the Democrats' emotional state of mind. The last four weeks have shown which question needs to be addressed above all others: Do you want Trump or an actual future for the country?
*Editor’s Note: The original German language version of this article is available with a paid subscription.
Kamala Harris has achieved something remarkable in just four weeks. The opinion polls show a reversal of the political dynamic in the United States. The Democrats now hold the lead in more of the battleground states, while Donald Trump appears to be in a deep hole. Voters’ expectations are no longer preoccupied with the past, but more concerned with the future.
It remains to be seen whether the woman who is now taking the helm of the Democratic Party can continue to build on this trend and steer a clear course to victory in the presidential election. The answer is maybe, but maybe not. Party-political allegiances are not amenable to trending vibes in America; rather, they are a deeply entrenched social phenomenon. Hillary Clinton won an overwhelming majority of votes cast across the country in 2016, but missed out on the presidency owing to the built-in unfairness of the electoral system. It ultimately comes down to a few tens of thousands of votes in five or six states, as well as mobilizing voter turnout in certain districts, and the occasional missed opportunity or isolated gaffe.
For this reason, this week’s Democratic National Convention is not just about celebrating the party’s recently accomplished change of candidate. Just as, in hindsight, the Republican Convention faded into a tedious apotheosis-of-Trump fest, the stakes are high for the Democrats’ gathering. It will have lasting implications for how the party and its nominee are perceived. The Trump faction is merely biding its time to portray Harris as the puppet of a woke leftist revolutionary movement intent on covering up America’s decline out of loyalty to Joe Biden.
The convention has the potential to reinforce this Biden-Harris image. Even before Harris became the presidential candidate, it was already apparent Chicago was destined to be the venue for a test of the Democrats’ position on the thorny question of Palestinian and Israeli affairs. Although Harris has not shied away from leveling admonishments and disapprobation at Israel, she will not be able to meet the high expectations that undecided Democratic voters voiced during the primaries. Israel remains Israel — a fixed geopolitical factor for any prospective U.S. president. Harris cannot allow the convention to become a conference on war and peace, particularly given the misplaced comparison with the legendary 1968 Democratic Convention, held amid racial unrest, student protests and the Vietnam War of that time. 2024 is not 1968. America is not now at war.
Kamala Harris Cannot Renounce Her Association with Biden
The second challenge facing Harris is how to deal with Biden. The party, and more particularly Democratic voters, would like to put some distance between themselves and the serving president. The demonization of Biden has grown so out of proportion that it leaves Harris in an impossible bind. As the serving vice president, she cannot renounce her association with Biden on either political or personal grounds. Apart from which, there is absolutely no reason to chime in with the doomsayers. The unemployment figure remains a low 4.3%, and inflation is at 2.9%. The supposedly forgotten middle class has benefited economically from the Biden administration.
Harris would be falling into a trap if she turned the convention into a test of the Democrats' emotional state of mind. The last four weeks have shown which question needs to be addressed above all others: Do you want Trump or an actual future for the country?
*Editor’s Note: The original German language version of this article is available with a paid subscription.
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