Concerned the US Is Escalating the War in Ukraine? Don’t Be – Putin Has Already Done So

The U.S. president has finally given Ukraine permission to deploy long-range missiles inside Russian territory. Now German Chancellor Olaf Scholz must follow suit.

The outraged reactions from Russia were as swift as they were predictable. The Russian government newspaper Rossiskaya Gazeta declared Joe Biden’s decision to allow Ukraine to fire U.S.-supplied long-range weapons inside Russia a highly “provocative” step on Monday. The U.S. was risking “catastrophic consequences.” Vladimir Putin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, chimed in, accusing the U.S. of seeking to “continue adding fuel to the fire and provoking further escalation of tensions around this conflict." Within just a few hours, Russia was also bandying around the line that it was “a very big step toward the beginning of World War III.”

Things have been going on like this for some time. The Russian president has constantly warned the West against making such a move, which would, he says, be tantamount to NATO getting involved in Ukraine and thereby entering into direct conflict with Russia. It’s a narrative which plays well among his compatriots: Russia portrayed as the victim, defending herself against the war-mongering West.

It has now caused extreme alarm, and many are seriously concerned that events in Ukraine could take an even worse, even deadlier turn, with potential fallout for Western allies. The Kremlin repeatedly threatens its readiness to use nuclear weapons. And Britain and France are reportedly now planning to follow the United States’ lead by releasing their Storm Shadow and SCALP weapons systems for use on Russian territory.

A Barrage of Drones Followed by Destructive Ballistic Missiles

And yet, the escalation was already there to see. Russia staged another impressive show of strength during the weekend, producing chaos across the country. It launched massive drone strikes, followed by multiple lethal ballistic missiles, and, naturally, did not limit its attacks to military installations; critical infrastructure and residential buildings were also targeted.

There were scenes of devastation in the capital Kyiv, of explosions and missile hits in Odesa, destroyed supply lines, heating systems no longer functioning, people standing in line for water in the middle of November — and the dead everywhere. In Sumi, at least eight people died. Children were among them. Yet again, lives were lost in Kryvyi Rih. At the beginning of the weekend, terrible images were circulating of dead bodies lying out in the streets.

Then there’s the military escalation. Russia has been procuring large numbers of soldiers from North Korea, dragging the totalitarian state into the war. The escalation is already well under way, as Russia forges ahead. It was high time, therefore, for Ukraine’s most powerful ally, the United States, to react.

Apart from which, Russia currently has a military advantage. In the east, its armed forces are advancing slowly but steadily. Putin is still sitting pretty on the international stage. Western allies have become bogged down in domestic political crises — not least Germany, whose three-party governing coalition recently collapsed — and the European Union’s pro-Ukrainian alliance looks weak. Putin, meanwhile, is free to travel to Mongolia and at liberty to shake hands with UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres at his own BRICS summit in Kazan, regardless of the international arrest warrant issued against him. Putin is the one acting to provoke and escalate, and it has been going rather well for him. Why would the Kremlin launch tactical nuclear weapons now, when there’s no military case to do so, and it would only inflict disproportionately more damage on itself?

Moreover, the supreme leader in the Kremlin knows that the long-range missile strikes will not decide the outcome of the war. They may be capable of hitting Russia’s military hard, for example in Kursk, where the Ukrainian army is planning its first attack, but they will not turn the course of the war.

For month after month, the Ukrainians requested permission to fire U.S. long-range weapons deep into Russian territory. Now, just as he is about to leave office, Joe Biden has finally brought himself round to giving the green light.

Biden’s decision is now exerting pressure in another quarter, which is surely a good thing. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has so far strenuously refused to give long-range Taurus weapons to Ukraine. Now Scholz is facing early federal parliamentary elections and in all likelihood will not return to the chancellery. He could take a page out of Biden’s book and use his remaining days to shift his stance. It would be a clear signal to Putin that the West is standing firm in the face of perfidious nuclear saber-rattling. Such a message would cause Putin to stop and take notice.

If the U.S. authorization had been given earlier, many attacks could have been averted, and fewer human lives would have been lost — that’s the bitter lesson to draw from Biden reaching the right decision at this juncture. Scholz should now follow suit; it would even work in his favor. He could actually hold to his line of acting strictly in step with the United States. Whatever is he waiting for?