Time Is Running Out for Putin. Has Trump Seen through His Tactics?
Published in Rzeczpospolita
(Poland) on 28 April 2025
by Jędrzej Bielecki (link to original)
(Poland) on 28 April 2025
by Jędrzej Bielecki (link to original)
Translated from
by Danuta Kowalska.
Edited by Michelle Bisson.
If there is no breakthrough in the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine this week, America will withdraw from the talks, Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned.
Donald Trump seems to have seen through the Kremlin's tactics: playing for time to force more concessions from the Ukrainians. “'I was very disappointed that missiles were [launched] by Russia," the president said Sunday in New Jersey, referring to Russian attacks on civilian targets that occurred despite an earlier warning from the White House. It’s not my war…This is Biden and Obama’s war. Don’t talk to me about Crimea, talk to Obama and Biden about Crimea," Trump said in response to a question about the fate of the peninsula.
The Kremlin is convinced that Trump wants to free himself from this war. Until now, Russia had hoped that the U.S. president would make further concessions because, rather than bringing a lasting peace, his goal is to free himself from the costs of engaging in this war. So, Americans are not ready to carry the necessary burden for Ukraine to be permanently secure. Thus, the participation of the U.S. in a possible peacekeeping mission that would guarantee the security of Ukraine is out of the question.
Recently, however, Trump seems to be sending multiple signals that he will not accept a complete defeat of the Ukrainians, which would recall America’s humiliating withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021. When asked about the issues raised by Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a meeting in Rome's St. Peter's Basilica on Saturday, Trump mentioned that he had demanded more weapons.
This time, however, Trump did not dismiss the possibility of sending more weapons . He even praised the Ukrainian president, saying that he adopted a calmer and more conciliatory attitude. During his flight home from Italy, Trump warned Putin that, absent an agreement, the U.S. might impose banking and secondary sanctions on Russia; that is, related to countries that trade with Moscow.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s interview with CBS shows that Russia does not care about peace. At least for now, the Kremlin has no intention of changing its tactics. Lavrov declined to commit to ending the shelling of Ukraine in an interview with CBS’ “Face the Nation.” Contrary to the evidence, he said the Russians never target civilian structures unless they are used for military purposes. Engaging in subtle word play, he said that although Moscow is ready for an unconditional cease-fire, such a cease-fire must nevertheless contain certain conditions, because Kyiv will use it once again to prepare for a new offensive.
This is a classic Russian strategy of playing for time. It stems from Putin's conviction that prolonging the war is in his interest because, although slow and with huge loss of life, the Russians are still making progress at the front.
However, there are many indications that the Trump administration is only just discovering Putin's intentions. Steven Witkoff, a New York-based real estate developer tasked by the president with conducting talks with the Russians, has already met with the Russian leader four times. After each of these talks, he echoed at least part of Putin's own narrative. The problem is that until now, Witkoff has had zero experience in Russian affairs. The same goes for Secretary of State Marco Rubio and [former] National Security Advisor Mike Waltz. Putin delegated people with immeasurably more experience for talks with the Americans. Lavrov has been Russia's Foreign Minister for 21 years. Yuri Ushakov was Russia's ambassador to Washington, and Kirill Dmitriev, who heads the Russian foreign reserves fund, is a graduate of Stanford and Harvard universities.
Despite U.S. concessions on recognizing the annexation of Crimea and closing Ukraine's path to NATO, at least as long as Trump remains in the White House, Moscow will want more. In particular, it will insist on reducing the number of Ukrainian armed forces, although Russia has not raised the issue of withdrawing allied troops from the eastern flank of NATO for some time.
Donald Trump seems to have seen through the Kremlin's tactics: playing for time to force more concessions from the Ukrainians. “'I was very disappointed that missiles were [launched] by Russia," the president said Sunday in New Jersey, referring to Russian attacks on civilian targets that occurred despite an earlier warning from the White House. It’s not my war…This is Biden and Obama’s war. Don’t talk to me about Crimea, talk to Obama and Biden about Crimea," Trump said in response to a question about the fate of the peninsula.
The Kremlin is convinced that Trump wants to free himself from this war. Until now, Russia had hoped that the U.S. president would make further concessions because, rather than bringing a lasting peace, his goal is to free himself from the costs of engaging in this war. So, Americans are not ready to carry the necessary burden for Ukraine to be permanently secure. Thus, the participation of the U.S. in a possible peacekeeping mission that would guarantee the security of Ukraine is out of the question.
Recently, however, Trump seems to be sending multiple signals that he will not accept a complete defeat of the Ukrainians, which would recall America’s humiliating withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021. When asked about the issues raised by Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a meeting in Rome's St. Peter's Basilica on Saturday, Trump mentioned that he had demanded more weapons.
This time, however, Trump did not dismiss the possibility of sending more weapons . He even praised the Ukrainian president, saying that he adopted a calmer and more conciliatory attitude. During his flight home from Italy, Trump warned Putin that, absent an agreement, the U.S. might impose banking and secondary sanctions on Russia; that is, related to countries that trade with Moscow.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s interview with CBS shows that Russia does not care about peace. At least for now, the Kremlin has no intention of changing its tactics. Lavrov declined to commit to ending the shelling of Ukraine in an interview with CBS’ “Face the Nation.” Contrary to the evidence, he said the Russians never target civilian structures unless they are used for military purposes. Engaging in subtle word play, he said that although Moscow is ready for an unconditional cease-fire, such a cease-fire must nevertheless contain certain conditions, because Kyiv will use it once again to prepare for a new offensive.
This is a classic Russian strategy of playing for time. It stems from Putin's conviction that prolonging the war is in his interest because, although slow and with huge loss of life, the Russians are still making progress at the front.
However, there are many indications that the Trump administration is only just discovering Putin's intentions. Steven Witkoff, a New York-based real estate developer tasked by the president with conducting talks with the Russians, has already met with the Russian leader four times. After each of these talks, he echoed at least part of Putin's own narrative. The problem is that until now, Witkoff has had zero experience in Russian affairs. The same goes for Secretary of State Marco Rubio and [former] National Security Advisor Mike Waltz. Putin delegated people with immeasurably more experience for talks with the Americans. Lavrov has been Russia's Foreign Minister for 21 years. Yuri Ushakov was Russia's ambassador to Washington, and Kirill Dmitriev, who heads the Russian foreign reserves fund, is a graduate of Stanford and Harvard universities.
Despite U.S. concessions on recognizing the annexation of Crimea and closing Ukraine's path to NATO, at least as long as Trump remains in the White House, Moscow will want more. In particular, it will insist on reducing the number of Ukrainian armed forces, although Russia has not raised the issue of withdrawing allied troops from the eastern flank of NATO for some time.
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