Taiwan Issue Will Be Harder To Bypass during Future US-China Negotiations

The second round of the U.S.-China trade negotiations concluded on June 11 following the strategic consensus reached in the June 5 phone call between the countries’ two leaders. China’s Ministry of Commerce International Trade Representative and Vice Minister Li Chenggang said the two sides had reached a framework agreement in principle. He expressed hope that the progress achieved in the talks would help strengthen mutual trust, further stabilize and improve bilateral economic and trade relations, and inject positive momentum into global economic development. At a press briefing on June 12, Lin Jian, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman, said that since both sides have reached agreement, they are now expected to honor it. He emphasized that communication is essential to reducing misunderstandings and enhancing cooperation between China and the U.S.

At first glance, the statements from China’s Ministry of Commerce and Foreign Ministry may appear ambiguous, but it’s important to remember that tariffs aren’t the only issue on the table. Taiwan is likely an unavoidable topic — and Beijing may be seizing this moment to claim leadership in shaping the global trade agenda.

During the June 5 phone call, President Xi Jinping urged Donald Trump to approach the Taiwan issue with caution and to avoid letting a few pro-independence forces drag the U.S. and China into a dangerous confrontation. While U.S. officials have refused to confirm or deny whether Taiwan was discussed, few believe it was left off the call sheet.

From the outset of this tariff war, it has been clear that tariffs are just a pretext for broader tensions, but the United States should remember that every action triggers a reaction. A head-on clash will lead to mutual harm and is ultimately meaningless. Whatever the outcome of the negotiations, it is unlikely the U.S. will revert to extremely high, retaliatory tariffs.

In this latest round of talks, both sides cited national security as a reason to discuss the reciprocal easing of trade controls and export bans. They also agreed to follow up on topics where the two heads of state had already reached some consensus — potentially expanding negotiations to other sensitive issues. For China, this trade war may in fact present a rare chance to bring up the Taiwan issue in a negotiation context. Despite appearances, these are not purely trade talks: If the two sides cannot reach a consensus on Taiwan, it will be difficult for the broader U.S.-China relationship to truly stabilize. Future negotiations are unlikely to avoid the Taiwan question altogether — it will depend on how the situation evolves as to when Taiwan will appear on a formal agenda.

Taiwan, for its part, must pragmatically recognize the post-Trump reality: The U.S. is no longer the primary driver of globalization. After the U.S. and China agreed in Geneva to suspend reciprocal tariffs for 90 days, Director-General of the World Trade Organization Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala urged both countries to use the momentum to develop practical solutions that could ease tensions, restore predictability and rebuild trust in the multilateral system. She recently responded to Chinese Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao’s WTO reform proposals by noting that today’s trade disruptions are undermining global growth. She called on all parties to manage bilateral trade conflicts and support the multilateral trading system. China, a firm defender of that system, is expected to play a greater role in advancing WTO reform.

On June 11, China announced it would implement zero tariffs on 100% of taxable goods from 53 African countries with which it has diplomatic relations. In contrast to Trump’s tariff war and confrontational stance toward the WTO, this move underscores China’s emergence as a leader in global multilateral trade, even as the U.S. remains the world’s largest trading power. Moving forward, China may seek to balance its U.S. negotiations with its broader commitments to the WTO — seizing this opportunity to help establish a fair, rational and workable global trade order, a goal that likely aligns with the shared hopes of many WTO member states.