Trump’s Opportunity in Iran
Published in Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung
(Germany) on 24 June 2025
by Nikolas Busse (link to
original)
For Israel and Iran, now would be a convenient time to end the war. If Trump managed to secure a lasting ceasefire, there would be an opportunity to find a long-term solution for Iran’s nuclear program.
Israel and Iran would, in fact, have good reasons to end the war now. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has already accomplished his main goal: He convinced U.S. President Donald Trump to carry out the kind of attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities that Israel alone could not have executed. It cannot be determined how successful the attack was from the outside, but Iran’s nuclear program presumably has experienced a setback. That would itself be a lot in a context that, for years, has been defined by Tehran making continual progress toward an atomic bomb.
In Iran, on the other hand, the damage is primarily concentrated in the nuclear program and the military. It is unlikely, in such a large country, in any case, that the regime, which controls all essential institutions, could topple because of airstrikes alone. But in the case of a longer war, the clerical-military system of rule would come under significant pressure, especially if that war were waged with participation from the United States.
Relatively Small Counterstrike
The fact that Iran’s counterstrike against an American base in Qatar was relatively small and mostly symbolic demonstrates that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is aware of his precarious position. He has suffered the loss of his greatest bargaining chip, namely the shadow armies and the nuclear program, as well as the air defense system. The regime's primary goal now is political survival.
Trump’s attempts to end the war live on social media on Tuesday may be a first in military history, but they also serve a political purpose. The isolationist parts of the MAGA movement will forgive their leader and idol for a one-time hit against facilities that represent a potential nuclear threat.
A drawn-out war would be another thing. Trump has already put himself in a difficult position with his talk of regime change in Tehran. If, in the end, he managed to secure a lasting ceasefire, there would be a chance to find a political solution to Iran’s nuclear program, because the current solution is not going to last for long.
Israel and Iran would, in fact, have good reasons to end the war now. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has already accomplished his main goal: He convinced U.S. President Donald Trump to carry out the kind of attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities that Israel alone could not have executed. It cannot be determined how successful the attack was from the outside, but Iran’s nuclear program presumably has experienced a setback. That would itself be a lot in a context that, for years, has been defined by Tehran making continual progress toward an atomic bomb.
In Iran, on the other hand, the damage is primarily concentrated in the nuclear program and the military. It is unlikely, in such a large country, in any case, that the regime, which controls all essential institutions, could topple because of airstrikes alone. But in the case of a longer war, the clerical-military system of rule would come under significant pressure, especially if that war were waged with participation from the United States.
Relatively Small Counterstrike
The fact that Iran’s counterstrike against an American base in Qatar was relatively small and mostly symbolic demonstrates that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is aware of his precarious position. He has suffered the loss of his greatest bargaining chip, namely the shadow armies and the nuclear program, as well as the air defense system. The regime's primary goal now is political survival.
Trump’s attempts to end the war live on social media on Tuesday may be a first in military history, but they also serve a political purpose. The isolationist parts of the MAGA movement will forgive their leader and idol for a one-time hit against facilities that represent a potential nuclear threat.
A drawn-out war would be another thing. Trump has already put himself in a difficult position with his talk of regime change in Tehran. If, in the end, he managed to secure a lasting ceasefire, there would be a chance to find a political solution to Iran’s nuclear program, because the current solution is not going to last for long.
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