Jędrzej Bielecki: Trump’s Pyrrhic Victory*
The House of Representatives passed the Big Beautiful Bill Act. It looks like U.S. President Donald Trump will sign it Friday, July 4, Independence Day. This bill will change the U.S. for years to come. Even though most Americans oppose it.
In the early morning of Thursday in Washington, D.C., there remained only one Republican lawmaker, Pennsylvania Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, who opposed what Donald Trump called the "Big Beautiful Bill." Five of Fitzpatrick's other colleagues withdrew their opposition under pressure from the White House. Earlier, the president warned that he will treat the rebellion as "the ultimate betrayal." Speaker of the House of Representatives Mike Johnson called a vote on whether to proceed to final debate on the new legislation. Trump's allies won it by a vote of 219-213. The fate of the bill seemed sealed at this point, although the final vote had yet to take place.
In the early hours of Thursday morning, the vote was over. The House of Representatives passed the bill by 218-214, a vote hailed by President Trump as "great and beautiful." All Democrats in the House voted against it, but two congressmen from the Republican Party opposed it as well. Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky said he could not vote for it for fear it would increase the federal deficit, while Rep. Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania explained his opposition by promising his constituents that he would not support a package that included drastic cuts to Medicaid.
The bill was debated in the lower house of Congress overnight, just as it was in the Senate earlier this week. It raises huge doubts primarily because it means a gigantic transfer of money from the poorest Americans to a narrow financial elite. It introduces permanent tax breaks, the value of which over the decade is estimated at $4.5 trillion.
To compensate for such a budget deficit, Trump decided to reduce the Medicaid program by as much as $1 trillion. The program provides subsidies to the poorest in the U.S. Thus, the group of 25 million Americans who do not have any health insurance will increase by another 10-12 million people under the new conditions. SNAP, the free meals program, will also be drastically reduced. All of this could soon have a significant impact on the political landscape in the U.S. For example, in the November 2024 presidential election in West Virginia, almost 70% of eligible voters supported Trump, with fewer than 30% supporting Kamala Harris. However, in this, one of the poorest, states, as many as 16% of the population participate in the free meal program. For many, its absence will mean a catastrophic collapse in the standard of living.
The Big Beautiful Bill Drives America’s Debt Even Higher
The bill did include a few small concessions for the poorest Americans — such as exempting tips and overtime pay from taxation. But it looks like few Americans fell for it. According to a Quinnipiac University poll, 55% oppose the bill, while only 29% support it. This is a disastrous result, given that this is the most important piece of legislation of Trump's second term. That could mean Republicans lose the majority in both chambers of Congress in just over a year. Trump had this experience in 2017 when he tried to overturn Barack Obama's health insurance reform (Obamacare). And although he didn't succeed (Arizona Sen. John McCain's vote proved decisive), to a large extent because of this, he lost his majority in Congress a year later.
At the same time, some Republicans remained doubtful about whether the bill made sense because it could potentially trigger the collapse of America's public finances. The U.S. debt is around $36 trillion, equivalent to 123% of its GDP. In the EU, only Greece and Italy have proportionately higher debt levels. Not only that, but this bill and tax cuts could add at least another $3 trillion to the deficit over the next decade. Elon Musk, the world's richest man and until recently Trump's closest confidant, has warned of America falling into "debt slavery.” Like Italy, Americans can grow dependent on their creditors, who are already demanding an ever-increasing premium for the risk of buying U.S. Treasury bonds. The U.S. now has to pay about $1 trillion a year to service the debt, which is more than the Pentagon receives.
The negative macroeconomic effects of the bill may not end there. Trump claims it will boost economic growth, which would close the gap in fiscal revenues. For now, however, this is not happening — according to the International Monetary Fund, the country's economy will grow by just 1.8% in 2025 — significantly less than in Poland (3.2%). So, the desperate White House is increasingly tempted to force Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve Jerome Powell to cut interest rates despite the risk of higher inflation. The independence of another state institution is under threat.
Trump took the risk of pushing through his flagship legislation because it sets his vision in stone. The Big Beautiful Bill eliminates a number of subsidies for the development of renewable energy sources introduced by Joe Biden in favor of promoting fossil fuels. It also reserves $500 billion to complete the construction of a wall on the Mexican border and the deportation of up to 1 million immigrants lacking permanent legal status per year. The U.S. Department of Defense may also receive additional funding.
Trump has already made some of these changes through executive orders. His successor can undo them relatively easily. It will be significantly harder to do the same with the Big Beautiful Bill.
*Editor's Note: This article is available in its original language with a paid subscription.
In the early morning of Thursday in Washington, D.C., there remained only one Republican lawmaker, Pennsylvania Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, who opposed what Donald Trump called the "Big Beautiful Bill." Five of Fitzpatrick's other colleagues withdrew their opposition under pressure from the White House. Earlier, the president warned that he will treat the rebellion as "the ultimate betrayal." Speaker of the House of Representatives Mike Johnson called a vote on whether to proceed to final debate on the new legislation. Trump's allies won it by a vote of 219-213. The fate of the bill seemed sealed at this point, although the final vote had yet to take place.
In the early hours of Thursday morning, the vote was over. The House of Representatives passed the bill by 218-214, a vote hailed by President Trump as "great and beautiful." All Democrats in the House voted against it, but two congressmen from the Republican Party opposed it as well. Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky said he could not vote for it for fear it would increase the federal deficit, while Rep. Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania explained his opposition by promising his constituents that he would not support a package that included drastic cuts to Medicaid.
The bill was debated in the lower house of Congress overnight, just as it was in the Senate earlier this week. It raises huge doubts primarily because it means a gigantic transfer of money from the poorest Americans to a narrow financial elite. It introduces permanent tax breaks, the value of which over the decade is estimated at $4.5 trillion.
To compensate for such a budget deficit, Trump decided to reduce the Medicaid program by as much as $1 trillion. The program provides subsidies to the poorest in the U.S. Thus, the group of 25 million Americans who do not have any health insurance will increase by another 10-12 million people under the new conditions. SNAP, the free meals program, will also be drastically reduced. All of this could soon have a significant impact on the political landscape in the U.S. For example, in the November 2024 presidential election in West Virginia, almost 70% of eligible voters supported Trump, with fewer than 30% supporting Kamala Harris. However, in this, one of the poorest, states, as many as 16% of the population participate in the free meal program. For many, its absence will mean a catastrophic collapse in the standard of living.
The Big Beautiful Bill Drives America’s Debt Even Higher
The bill did include a few small concessions for the poorest Americans — such as exempting tips and overtime pay from taxation. But it looks like few Americans fell for it. According to a Quinnipiac University poll, 55% oppose the bill, while only 29% support it. This is a disastrous result, given that this is the most important piece of legislation of Trump's second term. That could mean Republicans lose the majority in both chambers of Congress in just over a year. Trump had this experience in 2017 when he tried to overturn Barack Obama's health insurance reform (Obamacare). And although he didn't succeed (Arizona Sen. John McCain's vote proved decisive), to a large extent because of this, he lost his majority in Congress a year later.
At the same time, some Republicans remained doubtful about whether the bill made sense because it could potentially trigger the collapse of America's public finances. The U.S. debt is around $36 trillion, equivalent to 123% of its GDP. In the EU, only Greece and Italy have proportionately higher debt levels. Not only that, but this bill and tax cuts could add at least another $3 trillion to the deficit over the next decade. Elon Musk, the world's richest man and until recently Trump's closest confidant, has warned of America falling into "debt slavery.” Like Italy, Americans can grow dependent on their creditors, who are already demanding an ever-increasing premium for the risk of buying U.S. Treasury bonds. The U.S. now has to pay about $1 trillion a year to service the debt, which is more than the Pentagon receives.
The negative macroeconomic effects of the bill may not end there. Trump claims it will boost economic growth, which would close the gap in fiscal revenues. For now, however, this is not happening — according to the International Monetary Fund, the country's economy will grow by just 1.8% in 2025 — significantly less than in Poland (3.2%). So, the desperate White House is increasingly tempted to force Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve Jerome Powell to cut interest rates despite the risk of higher inflation. The independence of another state institution is under threat.
Trump took the risk of pushing through his flagship legislation because it sets his vision in stone. The Big Beautiful Bill eliminates a number of subsidies for the development of renewable energy sources introduced by Joe Biden in favor of promoting fossil fuels. It also reserves $500 billion to complete the construction of a wall on the Mexican border and the deportation of up to 1 million immigrants lacking permanent legal status per year. The U.S. Department of Defense may also receive additional funding.
Trump has already made some of these changes through executive orders. His successor can undo them relatively easily. It will be significantly harder to do the same with the Big Beautiful Bill.
*Editor's Note: This article is available in its original language with a paid subscription.
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