Trump Stacks the Deck: EU-Canada Trade Talks Forced To Fold

Published in The United Daily News
(Taiwan) on 14 July 2025
by Hsin-Chang Lu (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Matthew McKay. Edited by Laurence Bouvard.
Only last week, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen was enthusiastically and publicly suggesting her willingness to sign a trade agreement with the United States, in hopes that, if negotiations proceeded smoothly, the EU tariff rate could be maintained at around 10%. But over the weekend, President Donald Trump threw a curveball, threatening to impose a 30% tariff on EU exports to the U.S. from Aug. 1 — unless the two sides could come to a swift agreement before then.

By nature, Trump thrives on public adulation and boisterous support and is adept at lulling his opponents into a false sense of security before launching a round of surprise offensives. Even more often, he will step into the role of strategic provocateur, getting his counterparts to bare their souls and lay their cards on the table. Ultimately, he never misses a chance to toy with confused rivals — driven less by strategy than by a streak of childish mischief.

Trump has long had the measure of the principal EU member states: innately risk-averse, prone to feigning innocence and always calculating the risks and rewards to their own political reputations. At the NATO summit in late June, this group staged a performative debate over the future of the world, condemning the war in Ukraine and the human rights situation in Palestine and Gaza, yet all agreeing to increase military spending to 5% of their gross domestic product.

During the summit, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte even remarked that Trump’s forceful leadership was like a father stepping in to scold his children for fighting: “Daddy has to use strong language” to get them to stop. The comment quickly became a hot topic in international media and diplomatic circles.

That is the very reason why Taiwan’s national security team concluded from day one that Taiwan had to do its utmost to align itself with Trump’s will, starting with zero tariffs as a basis for talks. Particularly with the U.S.-China decoupling already underway, Taiwan naturally fell into line. What’s more, Trump at one point even declared that Taiwan should devote 10% of its GDP to military preparations, or at least consider such allocation as insurance for its national defense.

Since then, Taiwan has been actively discussing the establishment of a sovereign wealth fund and complying with U.S. requests to invest in American gas pipelines, even acquiring American shale oil and gas fields. Politicians from Taiwan’s ruling and opposition parties thus believe that catering to such expectations will surely win them favor at the highest levels in Washington.

In contrast, the EU and Japan have neither been proactive on the non-tariff barriers that Trump values nor in cooperating on military cost-sharing. Germany and France have sought to bolster their own armed forces, while the U.K. and France have proposed working together to regain the initiative over nuclear strike authority.

In the last few days, there have been further insider reports of U.S. defense officials pressing Australia and Japan to articulate their commitment in the event of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait. Prior to this, South Korea and Canada had been sharply criticized for failing to take a clear stance on the strategic redeployment and “Golden Dome” defense system envisioned by President Trump.

In this light, Trump may appear inscrutable, but he does in fact have what he considers to be a comprehensive plan — one that stimulates the U.S. defense industry, while using steep tariffs to keep allied nations in check. Ultimately, of course, his chief objective is to secure the effective consolidation of American hegemony in the 21st century.

The author is an associate professor at the National Taiwan University.


川普出老千 歐盟加拿大貿易談判只得低頭

2025-07-14 06:30 聯合報/ 盧信昌/台大副教授

也就在上周,歐盟執委會主席范德賴恩(Ursula von der Leyen)女士,還喜孜孜地公開倡議,願意跟美國簽訂貿易協議;如果談判一切順利的話,歐盟稅率也會守住10%附近。但美國總統川普卻在周末上午出怪招,揚言8月1日起將對歐盟輸美商品課徵30%的關稅,除非歐、美談判能夠在期限前,迅速達成。

川普生性喜歡被大眾簇擁和高呼萬歲,擅長放鬆對手的注意力,再出其不意地發動一輪猛攻;更經常以調人身分出場,讓一夥人掏心掏肺的亮出底牌。最終還能找到機會,促狹、逗弄不知所措的對手,好滿足其稚趣、童心。

歐盟主要成員的生性怕事、故作天真,跟只計算個人得失的政治名聲,川普早就盡看在眼底。於6月底的北大西洋公約組織(NATO)會議,這夥人假惺惺的共議世局未來,雖然譴責俄烏戰爭、巴勒斯坦與迦薩地區的人權;卻紛紛同意調高軍費支出,到5%的國內生產毛額。

席間,NATO秘書長,馬克路特(Mark Rutte)先生,甚至稱有川普的強勢領導,就像爸爸挺身而出,斥責小孩不該打架,"Daddy has to use strong language to get them to stop.",一時間更成為國際新聞與外交界的熱門話題。

因此之故,台灣的國安團隊從第一天就研判,必須盡力配合川普的意志,從零關稅談起;尤其是已然驅動的中、美脫鉤,當然是亦步亦趨!何況川普一度還揚言,台灣該拿10%的GDP作為建軍準備;至少當成是在買國防的保險。

此後,台灣積極討論要成立主權基金,也順應要求到美國投資輸氣管道,甚至是收購頁岩油氣田;朝野咸信投其所好,定能討到龍心大悅。

反觀,歐盟跟日本在川普所看重的非關稅障礙,以及軍事分攤的費用配合上,並不積極。德國與法國希望自己建軍,英國則與法國提議合作,要重新取得在核子武器做打擊的主動權。

這兩天更有新聞內幕的流出,美方國防高層,要求澳大利亞跟日本,必須表態就台海戰爭的決心;此前,韓國跟加拿大,也在川普總統所構想的戰略重部署跟「金穹」(Golden Dome)防禦系統,未能積極表態而吃了一頓排頭。

準此觀之,眼前川普看似的君心難測,其實有他自認為的全盤規劃:既能帶動美國軍需工業的發展,也能順勢以高關稅來宰制盟邦;然其最終目的,自然是美國霸權於21世紀內的有效鞏固。
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