Ukraine: It’s between Trump and Putin
The volatile nature that characterizes Donald Trump’s presidency best explains the apparent about-turn he has taken regarding the war in Ukraine. Now he appears to be frustrated and disappointed with Vladimir Putin, given the lack of progress in peace negotiations. He’s trying to use tariffs to pressure Putin and promises to send arms to Volodymyr Zelenskyy. What’s the catch?
During NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte’s visit to the White House on July 14, Trump announced that he would give Putin 50 days to agree to a ceasefire; otherwise, he would impose 100% tariffs on Russia. Also, perhaps fed up with not achieving the promised immediate end to the war, he pledged to send more anti-air defense systems and other types of arms to Ukraine, the cost of which will be the responsibility of its European NATO counterparts. The result will be a good deal for the United States, which will manufacture the weapons and send the bill to Europe.
The change of position is still curious, as Trump has spent 10 years expressing his adoration of, and admiration for, Putin. It’s worth remembering that his first reaction to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 was to call the Russian leader “very savvy.” Later, he accused the Ukrainian president of starting the war. But the really serious thing is that, until very recently, he had stopped the shipment of all defensive weapons to Ukraine to mitigate the impact of daily bombing on the country’s civilians.
One could conclude that Trump finally realized Putin is just stalling while mercilessly attacking Ukraine, particularly from the air. He said that he was “very disappointed” in Putin, whom he accused of “having such nice respectful and nice conversation” with him and then bombing Ukrainian cities the following night. Trump is seemingly frustrated with his counterpart’s attitude, but it isn’t clear to what extent, because giving him 50 days to reconsider doesn’t make any sense while innocent civilians continue to die. It’s like giving the Russian army two months to continue drone and missile attacks, thereby gaining new positions on the ground.
With respect to the tariffs that [Trump] is threatening if they don’t reach a peace agreement, they should have little effect on the Kremlin. Since the invasion in 2022, Moscow has already suffered from financial restrictions imposed by the United States and the European Union, rendering trade between the two powers is practically nonexistent. What might work are the secondary tariffs that Trump talked about for countries that trade with Russia — such as China and India, which buy petroleum from them — and this would indeed be a way of isolating Putin that could force him to seek an end to the war.
Meanwhile, Ukraine made its move by proposing a third round of negotiations in Istanbul that took place this week, and at the end, Ukraine proposed a fourth round of talks, which Zelenskyy would attend. This buys time to strengthen Ukraine’s deteriorating defensive capabilities, given that the country is in a desperate situation due to a lack of weapons and a shortage of soldiers. Trump’s promise to send long-awaited Patriot defense systems is Zelenskyy’s great hope. However, Zelenskyy’s position and Putin’s are so irreconcilable that it will be difficult to reach anything more than humanitarian or purely technical agreements.
Although Putin says he’s going to analyze all threats and proposals, it doesn’t appear he has any intention of ending the war until he achieves his objectives. His country is already in a war economy and its level of weapons production has increased significantly. Trump is trying to continue his strategy of escalating to deescalate, but it’s not clear if he understands in this case just how merciless his opponent is.
That said, it’s also possible that the U.S. president, whose geopolitics are somewhat peculiar, will once again look at Putin with fondness and the United States’ agreement with Ukraine will dissolve again. On Monday, in a virtual meeting with the Ukraine Defense Contact Group to discuss the continuity of aid and the allies’ intentions, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s absence was striking. In the world of international diplomacy, there are actions that say much more than grandiose speeches.
During NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte’s visit to the White House on July 14, Trump announced that he would give Putin 50 days to agree to a ceasefire; otherwise, he would impose 100% tariffs on Russia. Also, perhaps fed up with not achieving the promised immediate end to the war, he pledged to send more anti-air defense systems and other types of arms to Ukraine, the cost of which will be the responsibility of its European NATO counterparts. The result will be a good deal for the United States, which will manufacture the weapons and send the bill to Europe.
The change of position is still curious, as Trump has spent 10 years expressing his adoration of, and admiration for, Putin. It’s worth remembering that his first reaction to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 was to call the Russian leader “very savvy.” Later, he accused the Ukrainian president of starting the war. But the really serious thing is that, until very recently, he had stopped the shipment of all defensive weapons to Ukraine to mitigate the impact of daily bombing on the country’s civilians.
One could conclude that Trump finally realized Putin is just stalling while mercilessly attacking Ukraine, particularly from the air. He said that he was “very disappointed” in Putin, whom he accused of “having such nice respectful and nice conversation” with him and then bombing Ukrainian cities the following night. Trump is seemingly frustrated with his counterpart’s attitude, but it isn’t clear to what extent, because giving him 50 days to reconsider doesn’t make any sense while innocent civilians continue to die. It’s like giving the Russian army two months to continue drone and missile attacks, thereby gaining new positions on the ground.
With respect to the tariffs that [Trump] is threatening if they don’t reach a peace agreement, they should have little effect on the Kremlin. Since the invasion in 2022, Moscow has already suffered from financial restrictions imposed by the United States and the European Union, rendering trade between the two powers is practically nonexistent. What might work are the secondary tariffs that Trump talked about for countries that trade with Russia — such as China and India, which buy petroleum from them — and this would indeed be a way of isolating Putin that could force him to seek an end to the war.
Meanwhile, Ukraine made its move by proposing a third round of negotiations in Istanbul that took place this week, and at the end, Ukraine proposed a fourth round of talks, which Zelenskyy would attend. This buys time to strengthen Ukraine’s deteriorating defensive capabilities, given that the country is in a desperate situation due to a lack of weapons and a shortage of soldiers. Trump’s promise to send long-awaited Patriot defense systems is Zelenskyy’s great hope. However, Zelenskyy’s position and Putin’s are so irreconcilable that it will be difficult to reach anything more than humanitarian or purely technical agreements.
Although Putin says he’s going to analyze all threats and proposals, it doesn’t appear he has any intention of ending the war until he achieves his objectives. His country is already in a war economy and its level of weapons production has increased significantly. Trump is trying to continue his strategy of escalating to deescalate, but it’s not clear if he understands in this case just how merciless his opponent is.
That said, it’s also possible that the U.S. president, whose geopolitics are somewhat peculiar, will once again look at Putin with fondness and the United States’ agreement with Ukraine will dissolve again. On Monday, in a virtual meeting with the Ukraine Defense Contact Group to discuss the continuity of aid and the allies’ intentions, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s absence was striking. In the world of international diplomacy, there are actions that say much more than grandiose speeches.
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