Cordial Cross-Strait Relations Will Spare Taiwan Trump’s Demands, Says Paul Kuoboug Chang

What lessons might U.S. President Donald Trump’s brokering of a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine hold for Taiwan? Paul Kuoboug Chang, former Taiwan representative to Israel and deputy director of the Kuomintang’s Department of Mainland Affairs, observed on Aug. 26 that Trump is a businessman who speaks only about profit and lacks both democratic values and a moral compass. If relations between Chinese on both sides of the strait were stable, he argued, Taiwan would be spared Trump’s endless and arbitrary demands.

Appearing on “Saintly Thinking, Freshly Thought,” a program hosted by former Kuomintang legislator Chen Shei-saint and Chih-Yung Ho, an adjunct assistant professor at the National Tsing Hua University’s Center for General Education, Chang discussed whether, in light of Trump’s role in the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, Taiwan would become like Ukraine — or whether it would be betrayed.

While Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs often advocates for cooperation with like-minded countries, that approach did not work with Trump. According to Chang, the ace in the sleeve was cross-strait relations: The enemy of one’s enemy should be a friend and partner. If cross-strait relations were more conciliatory, the U.S. would be more attentive, but the reality today was quite the opposite.

Chang holds a master’s degree from the University of Virginia’s Department of Government and Foreign Affairs. His previous roles include director of the domestic news section at the Government Information Office; head of the news section at the Taipei Economic and Cultural Office in San Francisco; chief of the press section at the Taipei Economic and Cultural Office in Los Angeles; chief of staff to President Ma Ying-jeou; acting director of the Public Affairs Office; director-general of the Third Bureau and chief of protocol; representative at the Taipei Representative Office in Greece; director-general of the Department of International Information Services at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs; representative at the Taipei Economic and Cultural Office in Tel Aviv; as well as positions within the Mainland Affairs Council and the Straits Exchange Foundation.

He noted that when he served in Ma’s administration, senior legislators and political figures from Europe and the U.S. would often ask Ma why, after so many agreements had been negotiated with the mainland, so little had seemed to come from them. In truth, he argued, both Taiwanese and mainlanders were easy to negotiate with, meaning that if only cross-strait relations were stable, the U.S. would be in much less of a position to make unlimited demands. But the current Taiwanese administration has failed to manage these relations properly, resulting in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company being pressured into expanding its U.S. operations and much valuable leverage going unused.

Ukraine can serve as a lesson, Chang said, in that both Russia and the U.S. have insisted that it cannot join NATO. With Trump in power, the U.S. has adopted a policy of isolationism, unwilling to involve its military in any regional conflicts. Ukraine is on the front line of the Europe-Russia standoff: Russia will not tolerate Ukraine’s accession to NATO, while NATO dare not intervene in Ukraine by deploying troops, sending only weapons instead. Given that extremely delicate situation, would the U.S. really be prepared to station troops in Taiwan?

In Trump’s eyes, Chang argued, Taiwan had nothing to offer but semiconductor chips, hence the current pressure on TSMC to relocate its factories to the U.S. Furthermore, since the U.S. recognized One-China only, it had no reason to intervene in a cross-strait civil war, considering it an internal matter for China. Recalling a lecture by former Mainland Affairs Council Chair Su Chi, Chang noted that American think tanks had conducted more than a dozen war games simulating conflict within the first island chain, and never once had they prevailed, so they had no prospect of victory. With the U.S. now pursuing isolationism and unable to prevail against China in the first island chain, he said, Americans would not do anything so foolish, and China would not be taken in by any American ploys.

Reflecting on his past diplomatic experience in Israel as a point of comparison for Taiwan, Chang noted that Israelis are accustomed to war: They seek refuge in air-raid shelters when they hear sirens, and missile fire is commonplace. But Israel’s Iron Dome air defense system is highly effective, and its cyber capabilities are formidable; these have given it the edge against Palestine and Iran while maintaining good relations with the U.S. The Trump administration had the nerve to declare Jerusalem the capital of Israel, and — uniquely among U.S. administrations — it actually relocated its embassy to that disputed city.

Referring to the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel that resulted in over 1,000 deaths and 5,000 injured, Chang said that Israel responded with indiscriminate strikes. Taiwan, he argued, could not be compared to Israel because Israel enjoyed the backing and unconditional support of the U.S., and this in turn stemmed from the more than 100 million evangelicals in the U.S., who were staunch Trump voters and held considerable influence. The current U.S. ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, is himself an evangelical Christian, and the substantial evangelical and Jewish support for American politicians was why Trump was willing to help Israel fight Iran.

Chang stated that while the Israelis were highly capable, the situation in the Taiwan Strait was very different. The idea of “One China” had global support, he said, with most countries having established diplomatic ties with mainland China and considering Taiwan a part of the mainland. The power differential between Taiwan and Israel is immense.

Lai Ching-te’s advisory team really needed to strengthen its handling of U.S. and cross-strait relations, Chang argued. Last September, Lai made a blunder by criticizing the mainland for failing to reclaim land ceded to Russia under the Treaty of Aigun, prompting the Russian Foreign Ministry to mock Lai for “yapping like a dog.” Chang suggested that Lai still had to step up cross-strait dialogue and exchanges, and questioned whether his ruling Democratic Progressive Party was being overly cautious about pursuing a cross-strait policy of détente for fear of losing votes. Only peaceful coexistence could guard against the risk of war, he said, and Israel had the capacity to mobilize 300,000 troops within two days. Could Taiwan do the same? Could it prevail?