The Global Game: China Advances, but the United States Still Sets the Pace
I confess that I was tempted to write about the multiple political scandals rocking Colombia, but they seem to be adequately covered. Meanwhile, the world continues on its way. Tensions between the United States and China are escalating again. The upcoming meeting in South Korea between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping will form another chapter in the rivalry that defines the global agenda.
While Washington attempts to reindustrialize its economy and protect its supply chains, Beijing has learned to use the same weapons as its rival: subsidies, export controls and technological barriers. These are tools, born from the American model, that the Asian giant now masters with surgical precision.
For years, the U.S. accused China of unfair competition. It imposed tariffs, blocked semiconductors and promoted “decoupling” to reduce its dependence. But Chinese production adapted; trade flows were diverted to third countries; and China consolidated its role in the most sophisticated industrial chains. In short, it learned to play the game by U.S. rules — and to play it even better.
Beijing is promoting its own industrial policy, based on state investment, innovation and planning. With its “Made in China 2025” strategy and “dual circulation,” it produces essentials domestically and exports what the world no longer manufactures. In contrast, U.S. protectionism seems more like a reaction than a strategy.
One clear advantage for China is its control of rare earths, those minerals essential for batteries, turbines, electric cars and defense systems. It controls about 70% of the global production, and more than 90% of refining. “Whoever controls magnets controls the future,” said one official Chinese media outlet. This does not seem like an exaggeration.
However, the United States still has a strong card to play: its market. China is heavily dependent on American consumers, especially in sectors where its own demand remains weak because of its economic slowdown, youth unemployment and the real estate crisis. Beijing is seeking self-sufficiency, but its prosperity still depends on purchases from the U.S.
Last weekend in Kuala Lumpur, delegations from both countries reached a preliminary trade agreement, including a suspension of the 100% tariffs announced by Washington, a one-year postponement of Chinese restrictions on rare earth exports, and Beijing's commitment to resume large-scale purchases of U.S. soybeans. In exchange, the U.S. will relax licensing requirements for agricultural machinery and low-end semiconductors. These are limited steps, but they show that both sides need each other more than they admit.
The paradox is that Washington is containing China by using the same tools that China perfected: tariffs, green subsidies and export restrictions. It is a mirror battle in which the U.S. model is confronting its most disciplined version. The Global South — including Latin America — watches the playing field without a strategy of its own.
For Colombia, the lesson is clear. A modern industrial policy is needed to promote innovation, infrastructure and added value. These are the issues on which next year's presidential candidates must present concrete proposals, with a pragmatic approach rather than the current government’s ideological, ineffective rhetoric.
At a time when powers confront each other not with missiles but with microchips, the challenge for countries like ours is to stop being spectators. True independence is not measured by signed treaties, but by the ability to innovate, produce and decide our own destiny. On the new global chessboard, the pieces are not moved by speeches, but by strategy.
While Washington attempts to reindustrialize its economy and protect its supply chains, Beijing has learned to use the same weapons as its rival: subsidies, export controls and technological barriers. These are tools, born from the American model, that the Asian giant now masters with surgical precision.
For years, the U.S. accused China of unfair competition. It imposed tariffs, blocked semiconductors and promoted “decoupling” to reduce its dependence. But Chinese production adapted; trade flows were diverted to third countries; and China consolidated its role in the most sophisticated industrial chains. In short, it learned to play the game by U.S. rules — and to play it even better.
Beijing is promoting its own industrial policy, based on state investment, innovation and planning. With its “Made in China 2025” strategy and “dual circulation,” it produces essentials domestically and exports what the world no longer manufactures. In contrast, U.S. protectionism seems more like a reaction than a strategy.
One clear advantage for China is its control of rare earths, those minerals essential for batteries, turbines, electric cars and defense systems. It controls about 70% of the global production, and more than 90% of refining. “Whoever controls magnets controls the future,” said one official Chinese media outlet. This does not seem like an exaggeration.
However, the United States still has a strong card to play: its market. China is heavily dependent on American consumers, especially in sectors where its own demand remains weak because of its economic slowdown, youth unemployment and the real estate crisis. Beijing is seeking self-sufficiency, but its prosperity still depends on purchases from the U.S.
Last weekend in Kuala Lumpur, delegations from both countries reached a preliminary trade agreement, including a suspension of the 100% tariffs announced by Washington, a one-year postponement of Chinese restrictions on rare earth exports, and Beijing's commitment to resume large-scale purchases of U.S. soybeans. In exchange, the U.S. will relax licensing requirements for agricultural machinery and low-end semiconductors. These are limited steps, but they show that both sides need each other more than they admit.
The paradox is that Washington is containing China by using the same tools that China perfected: tariffs, green subsidies and export restrictions. It is a mirror battle in which the U.S. model is confronting its most disciplined version. The Global South — including Latin America — watches the playing field without a strategy of its own.
For Colombia, the lesson is clear. A modern industrial policy is needed to promote innovation, infrastructure and added value. These are the issues on which next year's presidential candidates must present concrete proposals, with a pragmatic approach rather than the current government’s ideological, ineffective rhetoric.
At a time when powers confront each other not with missiles but with microchips, the challenge for countries like ours is to stop being spectators. True independence is not measured by signed treaties, but by the ability to innovate, produce and decide our own destiny. On the new global chessboard, the pieces are not moved by speeches, but by strategy.
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