Trump Risks a Regional Conflagration To Save Face*
The United States could have achieved more by continuing diplomacy than starting a war with Iran. Real change requires more than the ayatollah's death.
This time, Donald Trump made good on his threat right on schedule. The U.S. president had stressed he would hit Iran hard if a diplomatic solution was not found by the end of February. And this time, Iran’s delaying tactics failed to keep the Americans at the negotiation table. According to experts, there was one key reason the talks in Geneva broke down. The Iranians were willing to make concessions on their nuclear program and abandon further uranium enrichment in the country, which would have eliminated the mullah regime’s ability to develop a nuclear bomb. However, the government in Tehran did not address the United States’ other two demands, namely that it cease developing and even dismantle its arsenal of ballistic missiles and terminate its support for Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthi militias in Yemen.
So, the U.S. can only partially achieve its objectives with the current air strikes. Iran’s nuclear program might be set back by several months again, just as it was after the attacks in June 2025. Iran’s ballistic missile stock will also be reduced in the near term. However, there will be no long-term cessation of the country's missile program. The government in Tehran will never abandon the very missiles it regards as its life insurance policy when it has its back against the wall. It’s also unlikely that Trump’s newly declared goal of regime change will happen in any sustainable way. This would require the deployment of ground troops and the appointment of individual actors within the country to a transitional government. And even though the supreme spiritual leader, Ali Khamenei, was killed in the aerial bombardments, a successor is set to emerge from within his own ranks. People in Tehran are not about to see the arrival of democracy and free elections any time soon after this war, although thousands will die for it.
By mobilizing an armada, Trump found himself in the position of having to launch air strikes or risk losing face. In so doing, he accepted the risk of igniting a wider conflagration across the Middle East because Iran aims to draw as many other countries as possible into the war with its counterstrikes. You need only look to the economic consequences of rising oil prices, a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, or the closure of the global air traffic hub in Dubai, to grasp the reach of this escalation.
If the U.S. had continued negotiating, Trump could have secured a stringent nuclear agreement and been crowned the dealmaker. Instead, he's got an active war on his hands, coupled with falling approval ratings at home in the United States.
*Editor's note: This article is available in its original language with a paid subscription.
This time, Donald Trump made good on his threat right on schedule. The U.S. president had stressed he would hit Iran hard if a diplomatic solution was not found by the end of February. And this time, Iran’s delaying tactics failed to keep the Americans at the negotiation table. According to experts, there was one key reason the talks in Geneva broke down. The Iranians were willing to make concessions on their nuclear program and abandon further uranium enrichment in the country, which would have eliminated the mullah regime’s ability to develop a nuclear bomb. However, the government in Tehran did not address the United States’ other two demands, namely that it cease developing and even dismantle its arsenal of ballistic missiles and terminate its support for Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthi militias in Yemen.
So, the U.S. can only partially achieve its objectives with the current air strikes. Iran’s nuclear program might be set back by several months again, just as it was after the attacks in June 2025. Iran’s ballistic missile stock will also be reduced in the near term. However, there will be no long-term cessation of the country's missile program. The government in Tehran will never abandon the very missiles it regards as its life insurance policy when it has its back against the wall. It’s also unlikely that Trump’s newly declared goal of regime change will happen in any sustainable way. This would require the deployment of ground troops and the appointment of individual actors within the country to a transitional government. And even though the supreme spiritual leader, Ali Khamenei, was killed in the aerial bombardments, a successor is set to emerge from within his own ranks. People in Tehran are not about to see the arrival of democracy and free elections any time soon after this war, although thousands will die for it.
By mobilizing an armada, Trump found himself in the position of having to launch air strikes or risk losing face. In so doing, he accepted the risk of igniting a wider conflagration across the Middle East because Iran aims to draw as many other countries as possible into the war with its counterstrikes. You need only look to the economic consequences of rising oil prices, a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, or the closure of the global air traffic hub in Dubai, to grasp the reach of this escalation.
If the U.S. had continued negotiating, Trump could have secured a stringent nuclear agreement and been crowned the dealmaker. Instead, he's got an active war on his hands, coupled with falling approval ratings at home in the United States.
*Editor's note: This article is available in its original language with a paid subscription.
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