Downgrading United States' Credit Rating Is Warning Bell for Government

Published in Nikkei
(Japan) on 7 August 2011
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Kenny Nagata. Edited by Mark DeLucas.
For the first time, the American ratings company Standard & Poor’s (S&P) lowered America’s long-term credit ratings from the highest AAA level down one step to AA+.

Despite the 1971 Nixon shock, ending financial exchanges with the dollar, high confidence in the country kept attracting the world’s money. However, due to the 2008 Lehman shock, trust in the American financial system has dramatically dropped. On top of that, America’s credit rating has dropped below that of the United Kingdom, Germany and France, and can no longer be called the world’s safest financial asset.

Downgrading America’s credit is an event that symbolizes the shaking of the trust of countries that hold reserve currencies in U.S. dollars. It also shows the deterioration of the investment that has been seen in the world financial market as “almost without risk.”

Even after the downgrading, there is no change in the rich liquidity of American investment targets. It is difficult to imagine a situation in which investment capital suddenly disappears, America’s credit crashes and long-term interest rates suddenly jump. However, there is the possibility that instability of the global financial system will continue to grow.

In Europe, banks that have maintained AAA status, such as the United Kingdom and France, are processing losses in appropriation to downgraded Greek debt. Interest rates for supplying short-term funds between banks have risen due to suspicion of the contents of assets.

This kind of insecurity in Europe amplifies growing anxiety of the economic slowdown in America, perpetuates a strong yen against a weak dollar and drastically lowers global stock prices. If market insecurity continues, it can have a bad influence on the real economy.

In downgrading America’s rating, S&P pointed out that “ … the downgrade reflects our view that the effectiveness, stability and predictability of American policymaking and political institutions have weakened … ”

Putting off a dramatic solution to the economic crisis is a stance shared by both the United States and Europe. In Europe, countries like Greece look to an unmotivated Germany for assistance. In the United States, in order to raise the federal debt ceiling, they established a law to reduce the budget deficit. However, the gap between the Democrats and Republicans is large concerning tax increases and benefit cuts, and the specific path towards deficit reduction remains unclear.

First, the government needs to show a resolve to seriously tackle economic reform. Also, without clear problem-solving from a nonpartisan group that includes opposition parties, it will be difficult to restore trust in the financial markets.

The issue raised by lowering America’s credit rating is the problem of how the government ought to be. That issue will continue postponing post-collapse reconstruction, and is a warning bell for Japan, whose financial deterioration has been far worse than that of Europe and the United States.


米国の格付け会社スタンダード・アンド・プアーズ(S&P)が、米国債の長期格付けを最上位の「トリプルA」から1段階下の「ダブルAプラス」へと、初めて引き下げた。

1971年のニクソン・ショックでドルと金の交換が停止された後も米国が世界のお金を引きつけてきたのは、国の信用が高かったからだ。しかし、2008年のリーマン・ショックで米国の金融システムへの信頼が大きく低下した。さらに今回、米国債の格付けは英独仏の国債を下回ることになり、世界 で最も安全な金融資産とは言えなくなる。

米国債格下げは、ドルという基軸通貨を持つ国への信用の揺らぎを象徴する出来事だ。それと同時に、世界の金融市場で「リスクがほとんどない」とみなされる投資対象がなくなりつつある状況も示している。

格下げ後も、米国債は最も流動性に富んだ投資対象であることに変わりはない。投資資金が一斉に逃げ出して米国債が暴落し、長期金利が急騰するといった事態は考えにくいだろう。とはいえ、世界の金融システムは不安定さを増す可能性がある。

欧州では英仏などトリプルAの信用力を維持する国の銀行が、格付けの下がったギリシャ国債の処理で損失を計上している。資産内容への疑心暗鬼から、銀行間で短期資金を調達する金利も高くなってきた。

こうした欧州発の不安が景気減速の懸念が強まる米国にも飛び火して増幅され、円高・ドル安が進み、世界の株価が大幅に下落した。市場の不安が続けば、実体経済にも悪影響が及びかねない。

S&Pは米国債格下げにあたって「連邦政府の債務上限引き上げをめぐる政治駆け引きは、政策立案の実効性や安定性、予見可能性が弱まっていることを示す」と指摘した。

財政危機の抜本的解決を先送りする政治の姿勢は欧米に共通する。欧州ではギリシャなどの本格救済にドイツが消極的。米国では連邦債務の上限 を引き上げる一方、財政赤字を削減する法律が成立したが、増税や給付削減をめぐる民主党と共和党の考え方の隔たりは大きく、赤字削減の具体的な道筋はなお 不透明だ。

まず政府が財政再建に真剣に取り組む覚悟を見せる必要がある。そして野党も含めた超党派での問題解決を明確にしないと、金融市場からの信認を回復するのは難しい。

米国債格下げが提起したのは、政治のあり方の問題だ。それはバブル崩壊後に構造改革の先送りを続け、欧米よりもはるかに財政状態が劣化した日本への警鐘でもある。
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