A Poisoned Inheritance
Its finally over. On January 20th, Democrat Barack Obama will become Americas 44th President. From his first day, he wont be in an enviable position.
Never before has an incoming President inherited such a bedraggled nation from his predecessor: a financial system sentenced to death by a deregulated and rampaging banking system, an astronomical budget deficit, an economy on the verge of recession and one-third of the population without health insurance or pensions.
Billions of dollars have been squandered in Iraq and Afghanistan. Guantánamo and Abu Ghraib, laws permitting torture, the indifference to international law, the erosion of alliances and ignorance of other cultures made Bushs America vulnerable, incredible and suspect. Surveys taken just before the election showed that almost 80 percent of Americans thought Bush had led the country into a hopeless mess.
An unencumbered and charismatic figure
In such circumstances, it was easy for Obama to offer himself as an unencumbered, savvy and charismatic figure with the motto change to a public thirsting for a new direction. Just a couple of years ago, he was a political unknown. Without Bush and the frustration he unleashed in the land, an Obama candidacy wouldnt even have been possible. But never before in its history had a nation longed for change as much as America did after eight years of Bush. Obama embodied that change. In that respect, he could well be considered the Texas cowboy Presidents greatest accomplishment.
The new President is now expected to lead Americans out of these depths, but a more inexperienced man with a shorter list of accomplishments has seldom, if ever, taken over in the White House. Lofty statements like Were the people youve been waiting for, that may have gone over well during the campaign will no longer be enough.
Obamas victory is Americas bill for an out-of-control Republican administration that created, in many respects, a failed state. Bushs inheritance will be a heavy burden: Obama will govern an America that reached its zenith after the end of the Cold War, reigned for a short time as the worlds only superpower, and is already in decline. The dream of a unipolar world that danced to Americas tune has faded.
A long-term loss of reputation and authority
Even without Bushs invasion of Iraq and the resulting entrapment of the United States in the never-ending Iraqi swamp, the emergence of new non-Western powers would have made it impossible for America to retain its superior position for very long. The level to which Americas international respect and ability to get things done has declined is clear to its friends and foes alike: nearly all Americas original coalition of the willing partners in Iraq have already withdrawn their troops or plan to do so in the near future.
Iran, the strategic victor of Americas disenchantment in Iraq, holds fast to its nuclear plans despite Washingtons threats. Russia, just a few years ago always willing to accommodate the United States in most matters, now openly defies it. In Asia, traditional allies of the United States have begun to orient themselves toward the growing influence of China. Even at its own doorstep in Latin America, forces critical of the United States are experiencing a renaissance.
This long-term loss of prestige and authority wont be reversed by Obamas election. Neither the more cooperative tone of his rhetoric nor the presence of the 65-year old, more experienced Joe Biden as a vice president who has many of the skills Obama lacks can change the basic situation.
Hope for more power
Joe Biden has nothing to learn from George W. Bushs confrontational style. The foreign policy expert understands not only the importance of Americas leadership role, he also understands its limits. He is convinced America must work more closely in cooperation with its allies. His influence will be mainly felt in those areas where Washington and its partners dont necessarily see eye-to-eye such as policies on Russia, Iraq and Iran.
Obamas statements during the campaign, as well as Bidens foreign policy experience, give hope to the possibility that the incoming President will pursue a more pragmatic and multilateral approach to both foreign and security policy. From the American side, multilateralism is often seen as a way to dominate the world while expecting everyone to share in the costs.
That wont change much under Obamas presidency. We can expect the incoming administration to make better use of soft power to get cooperation from its allies, but with that will also come greater demands on Europeans and Germans for cost-sharing and the increased use of European troops.
Berlin cant afford to wait
Berlin cant afford to wait for whatever demands will be forthcoming from the White House. The Merkel government would be better advised to formulate its own policy and expectations vis-à-vis German-American cooperation. In that respect, the focal point of that relationship can no longer be the support of American hegemony. It must be centered on readiness to create a multi-polar world order that also takes national interests into account.
That applies, above all, to relations with Russia and the question of whether Russias legitimate security interests should take a backseat to as the historian Michael Stürmer calls it the highly dangerous and simultaneously hollow expansion of NATO to include Georgia and the Ukraine.
Never before has an incoming President inherited such a bedraggled nation from his predecessor: a financial system sentenced to death by a deregulated and rampaging banking system, an astronomical budget deficit, an economy on the verge of recession and one-third of the population without health insurance or pensions.
Billions of dollars have been squandered in Iraq and Afghanistan. Guantánamo and Abu Ghraib, laws permitting torture, the indifference to international law, the erosion of alliances and ignorance of other cultures made Bushs America vulnerable, incredible and suspect. Surveys taken just before the election showed that almost 80 percent of Americans thought Bush had led the country into a hopeless mess.
An unencumbered and charismatic figure
In such circumstances, it was easy for Obama to offer himself as an unencumbered, savvy and charismatic figure with the motto change to a public thirsting for a new direction. Just a couple of years ago, he was a political unknown. Without Bush and the frustration he unleashed in the land, an Obama candidacy wouldnt even have been possible. But never before in its history had a nation longed for change as much as America did after eight years of Bush. Obama embodied that change. In that respect, he could well be considered the Texas cowboy Presidents greatest accomplishment.
The new President is now expected to lead Americans out of these depths, but a more inexperienced man with a shorter list of accomplishments has seldom, if ever, taken over in the White House. Lofty statements like Were the people youve been waiting for, that may have gone over well during the campaign will no longer be enough.
Obamas victory is Americas bill for an out-of-control Republican administration that created, in many respects, a failed state. Bushs inheritance will be a heavy burden: Obama will govern an America that reached its zenith after the end of the Cold War, reigned for a short time as the worlds only superpower, and is already in decline. The dream of a unipolar world that danced to Americas tune has faded.
A long-term loss of reputation and authority
Even without Bushs invasion of Iraq and the resulting entrapment of the United States in the never-ending Iraqi swamp, the emergence of new non-Western powers would have made it impossible for America to retain its superior position for very long. The level to which Americas international respect and ability to get things done has declined is clear to its friends and foes alike: nearly all Americas original coalition of the willing partners in Iraq have already withdrawn their troops or plan to do so in the near future.
Iran, the strategic victor of Americas disenchantment in Iraq, holds fast to its nuclear plans despite Washingtons threats. Russia, just a few years ago always willing to accommodate the United States in most matters, now openly defies it. In Asia, traditional allies of the United States have begun to orient themselves toward the growing influence of China. Even at its own doorstep in Latin America, forces critical of the United States are experiencing a renaissance.
This long-term loss of prestige and authority wont be reversed by Obamas election. Neither the more cooperative tone of his rhetoric nor the presence of the 65-year old, more experienced Joe Biden as a vice president who has many of the skills Obama lacks can change the basic situation.
Hope for more power
Joe Biden has nothing to learn from George W. Bushs confrontational style. The foreign policy expert understands not only the importance of Americas leadership role, he also understands its limits. He is convinced America must work more closely in cooperation with its allies. His influence will be mainly felt in those areas where Washington and its partners dont necessarily see eye-to-eye such as policies on Russia, Iraq and Iran.
Obamas statements during the campaign, as well as Bidens foreign policy experience, give hope to the possibility that the incoming President will pursue a more pragmatic and multilateral approach to both foreign and security policy. From the American side, multilateralism is often seen as a way to dominate the world while expecting everyone to share in the costs.
That wont change much under Obamas presidency. We can expect the incoming administration to make better use of soft power to get cooperation from its allies, but with that will also come greater demands on Europeans and Germans for cost-sharing and the increased use of European troops.
Berlin cant afford to wait
Berlin cant afford to wait for whatever demands will be forthcoming from the White House. The Merkel government would be better advised to formulate its own policy and expectations vis-à-vis German-American cooperation. In that respect, the focal point of that relationship can no longer be the support of American hegemony. It must be centered on readiness to create a multi-polar world order that also takes national interests into account.
That applies, above all, to relations with Russia and the question of whether Russias legitimate security interests should take a backseat to as the historian Michael Stürmer calls it the highly dangerous and simultaneously hollow expansion of NATO to include Georgia and the Ukraine.
as an american I say this is an excellent over view of american politics.
greed and arrogance and power has sunk america.
most americans still think they are in the promised land. ie best in everything.
imperialism and wars for profits have their price.
we americans are about to find out that price.