Can the U.S. Lower Debt by Reducing Military Spending?

Published in Xinhua
(China) on 27 August 2011
by Chen Hu (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Pak Ng. Edited by Rica Asuncion-Reed.
On Aug. 25, the United States issued its 2011 report on “Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China," repeating yet again its annual theory of the “Chinese military threat.” Some commentaries have already pointed out, pertinently, that this was just “a perfect excuse for the Pentagon to defend its budget.” This made me think: Since the U.S. is the biggest debtor country in the world, yet spends the most on military expenses, can it lower its debt by reducing its military spending?

As the richest, biggest and most developed economy in the world, the U.S. is, at the same time, the biggest debtor in the world. It has so much debt that it has reached the point of a debt crisis, something no one believed really could happen. However, people have no choice but to face the reality that since Obama took office, the debt ceiling has been raised three times — to a total of $2.98 trillion. Currently, the U.S. debt already constitutes more than 90 percent of GDP. Nevertheless, for an ostentatious country such as the U.S., it would not be difficult to avoid a debt crisis if only it would make a determined effort to increase taxes and reduce spending.

The news, however, has been much more negative: Based on the 2011 fiscal year budget that the Obama administration proposed to Congress, the U.S. government deficit for the fiscal year would reach a historic new high of $1.65 trillion. And based on the estimate of the Congressional Budget Office, U.S. debt will constitute 190 percent of GDP by the year 2035.

Compared to the total U.S. debt and fiscal deficit, U.S. military spending has always been at the high end, and it does not seem to be coming down. U.S. military spending in 2009 was $612 billion; in 2010, it was $698 billion; and the 2011 military budget that was just passed amounts to $725 billion. The amount for the current fiscal year only includes the budget for regular defense spending, war spending and budget planning. It does not include any expenses for research, development and maintenance of nuclear weapons; so there is a high possibility that these extra expenses will need to be added. For example, in 2007, the U.S. annual military budget was $448 billion, but actual expenditure reached $546.8 billion.

After reviewing the amount of the U.S. debt, the fiscal deficit and military spending, my instinctive reaction was: How great of a war threat is the U.S. facing? The fact is, ever since the Cold War ended, it has been impossible for the U.S. to find an opponent of equal military strength. U.S. military spending is nearly 50 percent of total military spending worldwide and has surpassed the combined spending of the nine other countries of the world’s top 10 military powers. We should know that when Great Britain was the number one world power, in its most prosperous period, it only pursued a goal of maintaining a Two-Power Standard for its navy, which meant that the total gross tonnage of the British navy would equal the combined tonnage of the next two strongest naval powers.

In a situation where a matched opponent is hard to find, the nation is debt-ridden and the fiscal deficit is high, what could such high military spending bring to the U.S. and the world? Let’s look at this set of numbers: Based on Iraq War statistics published by the Associated Press, as of Sept.1, 2009, U.S. military casualties already surpassed 70,000; as of June 30, 2009, U.S. government civilian employee casualties numbered 1,395; as of June 16, 2009, the number of Iraqi scholars assassinated reached 423; and as of Sept.1, 2009, the number of news reporters killed while reporting was 139.

Because many casualties have not been reported, the total number of civilian Iraqi causalities cannot be confirmed even now. A joint report by the World Health Organization and the Iraqi government estimated the Iraqi civilian death toll to be between 104,000 and 223,000. In the Afghanistan War, another war led by the U.S., U.S. army causalities has already surpassed thousands. As to the number of Afghan civilians who have died during the conflict, the U.N. Assistance Mission in Afghanistan reports that 3,606 civilians have already been injured or killed between January and June 2011. In accordance with the estimate issued by the U.S. Congressional Research Service, the total cost of these two wars will reach $15.6 billion to $18.8 billion, more or less equal the total U.S. deficit in the 2011 budget.

It seems that Americans really need to consider: Could a reduction in military spending possibly reduce debt?


8月25日,美国发表了2011年度《中国军事与安全态势发展报告》,又在重复一年一度的“中国军事威胁论”。已有评论一针见血地指出:这不过是“五角大楼捍卫预算的最佳借口”。这让我想到:美国是世界最大的债务国又是军费最多的国家,能不能减点军费少点债呢?

作为全球最发达、最富有也是最大的经济体,美国同时又是全球最大的债务国,债务之多甚至到了发生债务危机的程度,这真是一件令人难以置信的事 情。然而,人们却不得不面对这样的事实:奥巴马任职以来,已3次提高债务上限,上调总额为2.98万亿美元。目前,美国债务占国内生产总值(GDP)比重 已经超过90%。尽管如此,对于财大气粗的美国来说,只要痛下决心,增加税收、减少开支,避免债务危机并不是一件难事。然而,传来的却是更加不利的信息: 按照奥巴马政府向国会提交的2011财政年度预算案,美国政府2011财年赤字将创下1.65万亿美元的历史新高。而根据美国会预算办公室预测,到 2035年美国债务占GDP比重将达到190%。

与美国债务总额和财政赤字直线攀升交相辉映的是,美国的军费始终居高不下。2009年美国军费开支为6120亿美元;2010年为6980亿美 元;刚刚通过的2011年军费开支更高达7250亿美元。其中,新年度军费的数字还仅仅是常规国防开支和战争开支的预算数或计划预算数,未含核武器的研发 维持费,而且还很可能需要额外追加。例如,美国2007年度军费开支预算为4480亿美元,而实际开支却高达5468亿美元。

看过美国债务、赤字、军费数额之后,本能的第一反应是:不知美国面临着多么巨大的战争威胁?但事实却是,冷战结束以来,美国在军事上根本找不到 势均力敌的对手,美国的军费开支接近世界军费总额的50%,超过世界军费前十位的其他9个国家的总和。要知道,当年的头号世界强国英国,在其鼎盛时期所追 求的目标,也只是海军保持两强标准,即英国海军的总吨位相当于其后两个海军强国的总和。

在难寻对手、债台高筑、财政赤字居高不下的情况下,如此之高的军费开支,为美国和世界带来的又是什么呢?看看这样一组数字吧!根据美联社发布的 伊拉克战争统计数据,截至2009年9月1日,美军的伤亡总数已经超过7万人;截至2009年6月30日,美国政府的平民雇员死亡人数1395人;截至 2009年6月16日,被暗杀的伊拉克学者人数423人;截至2009年9月1日,在采访工作中丧生的记者人数139人。鉴于诸多伤亡事件未得到报告和报 道,至今无法确认伊拉克平民死亡总数,世界卫生组织联合伊拉克政府发布报告,估计伊拉克平民死亡人数在10.4万至22.3万之间。在另一场由美国主导的 阿富汗战争中,美军的死伤早已超过千人。至于阿富汗平民,据联合国驻阿富汗援助团的统计数据显示,仅2011年1-6月份,就有3606名平民在冲突中伤 亡。而据美国国会研究办公室估计,这两场战事的总成本,将达到15600亿美元至18800亿美元之间,与美国2011年财政预算中的赤字总额大体相当。

看来,美国人真的很有必要考虑考虑:能不能减点军费,少点债?(陈虎)
This post appeared on the front page as a direct link to the original article with the above link .

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