Ten Years after 9/11, the U.S. May Not Be Safer

Published in Xinhua
(China) on 6 September 2011
by Qu Xing (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Yipeng Xie. Edited by Amy Wong.
On Sept. 11, 2001, the U.S. was attacked by terrorists. The symbols of U.S. economic power, the Twin Towers, collapsed in the attack. The symbol of U.S. military power, the Pentagon, was attacked; part of it collapsed, and more than 3,000 innocent citizens were killed. The Dow Jones plummeted by 14.3 percent, and the stock market lost $1.4 trillion. For 10 years, the U.S. government prioritized anti-terrorism as the essential task. In order to eliminate international terrorism and improve the security situation in the U.S., the U.S. government adopted some stunning actions, which exerted considerable pressure on U.S. citizens.

After 10 years, the U.S. has managed to achieve global anti-terrorism cooperation, overthrow the Taliban, collapsed al-Qaida and shoot bin Laden to death. There have been no more terrorist attacks on U.S. soil.

However, is the U.S. really safer now? Is the international society also safer now? The answer is not absolutely yes. The two costly anti-terrorism wars may engender more terrorism viruses.

Even though the U.S. collapsed al-Qaida via the Afghanistan War, the U.S.-built Karzai government doesn’t control the situation, and the Taliban is still active throughout Afghanistan. Meanwhile, violent attacks conspired by al-Qaida terrorists continue to occur. To immediately extricate the Afghanistan dilemma, the U.S. put the Taliban on the agenda of measuring progress in the Afghan government. But if the U.S. could not eradicate the Taliban through war, how can the U.S. change the Taliban through negotiation? How can the Taliban, which has managed to survive the fierce war, be friendly to the U.S.? The Afghan government, even with help from thousands of NATO soldiers, was unable to eliminate violent, anti-government activities. How can it control the situation after the withdrawal of the U.S. military? Who can promise that Afghanistan will not be the hotbed of anti-U.S. extremists after the U.S. withdrawal?

Even though the result of the Afghanistan War is not satisfying, this war is authorized by the U.N. and internationally supported. The Iraq War, however, is different. Before the Iraq War, there were anti-war protests lasting for several weeks in more than 600 cities around the world. In addition, the U.N. Security Council refused to authorize this war. Nevertheless, the U.S. avoided the U.N. Security Council and declared war, the “reason” for which was that the Saddam Hussein government produced weapons of mass destruction and supported international terrorism. At that time, Secretary of State Colin Powell confidently offered “the evidence” to the U.N. Security Council, but the fact proved afterward that the Iraq War is an illegal war without solid reasons or authorization. The debate on this war is still vehement, while the evidence is solid that the war has caused the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Iraqi citizens and the destruction of public facilities. The U.S. didn't solve the problems that Saddam was unable to solve. The ethnic conflicts in Iraq are still severe. Religious conflicts are still fierce. Anti-government violence is still frequent. Now Iraq is once again an ally of the U.S. However, as it faces tons of post-war problems and complicated religious conflicts, the future of the Iraqi government is still unknown. Who can promise that the U.S.-Iraq relationship won’t change in the future?

If the question of whether the 10-year anti-terrorism project has brought U.S. safety or not is unsure, the fact is solid that the anti-terrorism situation of international society is more serious. Al-Qaida followers from Afghanistan spread around the world and are becoming more active because of the severe situation in the Middle East. They built al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and similar organizations and harbor the ability to organize terrorist attacks. On Aug. 26, the bomb attack of the U.N. building in Nigeria also demonstrated the obvious characteristics of a typical al-Qaida terrorist attack. Besides, in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Pakistan, Jordan, India and Indonesia, terrorist attacks happened frequently and therefore formed an active terrorist-attack area covering West Asia, North Africa, South Caucasus, Middle Asia, South Asia and Southeast Asia. These terrorist attacks have caused considerable deaths and financial loss.

Wars have exerted appreciable financial pressure on the U.S. This year, U.S. debt has reached $14 trillion. The U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio is close to 100 percent, which significantly exceeds the supposed international caution percent. Indeed, the U.S. economic crisis is not caused by wars but by the conflicts within economic structure, the governmental policy of releasing debt and the excessive consumption of citizens. Nevertheless, the substantial cost of wars makes the economic situation even worse. Compared to the economy in the U.S. 10 years ago, the current economy in the U.S. is more vulnerable. To support global strategies, the U.S. is suffering even more pressure, and as a result, the economic safety has caused more concerns.

Terrorism is the common army in this world, and anti-terrorism is the only choice for today’s society. But anti-terrorism should be comprehensive. If a country abuses armed force, it won’t help anti-terrorism but will propel terrorism. No double standard is allowed in anti-terrorism. If those who launch terrorist activities as “struggles for ethnic rights” can be absolved from laws, there will be more and more terrorists in international society.

The U.S. has destroyed two anti-U.S. regimes through wars, which enables Americans to release their rage. However, these anti-terrorism activities have conveyed too many factors unrelated to anti-terrorism, such as consideration of domestic politics, competition between countries, oil and gas resource control and geopolitical strategies. These unrelated factors, to some extent, distract from the main goals of anti-terrorism and ignore the comprehensiveness of anti-terrorism.

Ten years after 9/11, the U.S may not be safer. Ten years after 9/11, the world will be more unstable.

The author, Qu Xing, is the president of the China Institute of International Studies.


十年前的9月11日,美国本土遭到恐怖主义袭击,美国经济实力的象征世贸双塔在袭击中轰然倒下,美国军事实力的标志五角大楼在袭击中局部坍塌,3000多无辜平民在袭击中死于非命,道琼斯指数骤跌14.3%.股市缩水1.4万亿美元。十年来,美国政府把反恐作为压倒一切的要务。为了打击国际恐怖主义、改善美国的安全环境,美国政府采取了许多惊人之举,也让美国民众承受了许多不堪之重。

十年过去了,美国促成了全球反恐合作,推翻了支持恐怖主义的塔利班政权,击溃了从事恐怖活动的基地组织,击毙了恐怖大鳄本·拉丹,美国本土未再发生既遂恐怖袭击事件。

但美国真的更安全了吗?国际社会也更安全了吗?答案显然不那么肯定。耗费巨大人力物力的两场反恐战争恐怕会滋生出更多的恐怖细菌。

美国通过阿富汗战争虽然击溃了基地组织,但美国组建的卡尔扎伊政府远未控制住局面,塔利班势力仍然活跃在阿富汗各地,基地分子策划的暴力袭击事件仍不停发生。为迅速摆脱阿富汗难局,美国开始设想把塔利班纳入阿富汗政治进程。但美国通过战争都未消灭塔利班,怎么可能通过谈判来改变塔利班?从美军战火下九死一生挺过来的塔利班一旦重新得势,怎么可能对美国友善?阿富汗政府在数万北约联军协助下都无法消除反政府暴力活动,怎么可能在美军撤离后控制住局面?谁能保证美国扬长而去后,阿富汗不重新成为反美极端主义的温床?

尽管阿富汗战争的结果不尽如人意,但这毕竟是联合国授权并获得国际社会支持的、合法的反恐战争。伊拉克战争就完全不同了。伊拉克战争前夕,全球600多个城市连续数周爆发了反战游行,联合国安理会拒绝授权,美国绕开安理会发动战争,“理由”是萨达姆政权研发大规模杀伤性武器,支持国际恐怖主义活动,时任美国国务卿鲍威尔曾言之凿凿地在安理会论证美国掌握的“铁证”,但事后证明伊拉克战争是一场既没有证据也没有授权的非法战争。围绕这场战争的是非争论仍在继续,战争造成的几十万伊拉克人伤亡和基础设施的毁损却是实实在在的,萨达姆没有解决的问题美国仍然没有解决,伊拉克的族群矛盾仍然尖锐,宗教冲突仍然激烈,反政府暴力活动仍然频发。现在的伊拉克再度成为美国的盟友,面对成堆的战争遗留问题和复杂的宗教部族矛盾,伊拉克政局走向蕴含颇多未知因素,谁又能保证将来的美伊关系不再发生新的轮回。

如果说,美国十年反恐是否给美国带来了更多安全还是一个见仁见智的问题,那么十年来国际社会面临的反恐形势更加严峻则是不争的事实。阿富汗的基地分子逃到世界各地并随着伊拉克战争后中东局势而重趋活跃,建立了类似“基地阿拉伯半岛分支”、“伊斯兰马格里布基地组织”等分支机构,并具备了再度组织恐怖袭击的能力。今年8月26日发生的联合国尼日利亚大楼爆炸案,也能见到基地组织恐怖袭击的鲜明特征。此外,恐怖袭击在埃及、沙特、俄罗斯、巴基斯坦、约旦、印度、印尼等地也多次发生,形成从西亚北非经南高加索、中亚、南亚到东南亚的一个恐怖主义活动猖獗的地带,给相关国家造成了严重的人员伤亡和财产损失。

战争给美国造成了沉重的经济负担。今年,美国主权债务已经突破14 万亿,债务率接近100%.大大超过公认的国际警戒线标准。当然,美国目前的经济困难并不主要是由战争引起的,而主要是由于美国经济金融化的结构性矛盾、政府的借贷度日的执政方式和民众的超前消费理念,但战争消耗的巨额人财物力对美国经济起到了雪上加霜的作用。相对于十年前,今天的美国经济更加脆弱,美国支撑目前全球战略摊子更加吃力,经济安全的形势更加令人忧虑。

恐怖主义是人类社会的公敌,反恐是国际社会不二的长期选择。但反恐必须标本兼治,如果在国际关系中轻率使用武力,不但无助于国际反恐事业,反而会造就更多的恐怖主义土壤;反恐不能搞双重标准,如果让那些打着“民族权利”旗号从事恐怖活动的人得以逃脱法律的制裁,那么国际社会只会见到越来越多的恐怖分子。

美国通过战争摧毁了两个反美政权,确实让“9·11”后悲愤的美国人“出了一口恶气”。但美国在反恐行动中加载过多非反恐因素,如国内政治考量,大国关系博弈,油气资源控制,地缘战略布局等,在一定程度上分散了反恐财力,偏离了反恐重心,忽略了标本兼治。

“9·11”十年后的美国未必更加安全, “9·11”十年后的世界更加动荡不安。(中国国际问题研究所所长 曲星)
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