US Secretary of the Treasury Visits Europe to Seek for IMF’s Rescue, Market Analysts Say “Impossible”

Published in People
(China) on 5 December 2011
by Jingyu He (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Qi Luo. Edited by Katya Abazajian.
Right at the time that the euro area is experiencing market panic, the U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Timothy Geithner will visit Europe on Dec. 6. The market evaluation indicates that Geithner will assert that the IMF should interfere in the salvation of Europe. However, it will be hard to reach a consensus about this assertion at the EU Summit and while visiting European countries.

Although plans to cut the budget in Italy have just been approved, “how to salvage” the economy is another big problem. The largest economy in the world, the U.S., is about to lose patience. From Dec. 6 to Dec. 8, Geithner will visit Frankfurt, Berlin, Paris, Marseille, and Milan, and have brief conferences with Sarkozy, the president of France, Monti, the prime minister of Italy, and Rajoy, the prime minister of Spain.

Will Geithner’s visit to Europe and the upcoming EU Summit restore confidence in the market? The opinion of Gilles Moec, an economist for Deutsche Bank, represents the general anxiety from the capital market. Europe’s debt crisis has lasted too long and it really needs to be surprised.

Moec said, “Basically, we need to give the market a surprise first – assuming that the market automatically changes its judgment, and I believe that confidence will not be restored until next year. The surprise includes assertions from leaders of European countries, and builders of united financial leagues, and the European Central Bank upholding its responsibility to release euro bonds.”

But all these may be Moec’s own wish. Mingli Liu, an expert in European economy from the China Institute of International Relations believes that it would be impossible to reach a consensus.

Mingli Liu said, “It would be difficult for two or three countries to reach consensus. If [representatives from] 27 countries need to sit together to research the consensus, every country has its own interest to consider, and no one wants to compromise. Even if the 27 countries compromised for a consensus, the treaty will not be approved until parliaments in each country say so.”


美国财长访欧寻求IMF介入救市 市场分析称"没戏"

就在欧元区危机已经引发市场恐慌的时机,明天(6日)起,美国财长盖特纳将访问欧洲。市场估计盖特纳将主张国际货币基金组织介入救助,但欧盟峰会对这个建议很难达成一致,并且欧洲内部对救助方案可能也很难达成一致。

  意大利虽然刚刚通过了财政紧缩计划,但接下来如何救助又成了大问题。世界第一大经济体美国开始沉不住气,盖特纳6号至8号将走访法兰克福、柏林、巴黎、马赛和米兰,与法国总统萨科齐、意大利总理蒙蒂和西班牙首相候选人拉霍伊进行走马灯似的会谈。

  到底盖特纳的来访和即将召开的欧盟峰会能否恢复市场信心?德意志银行经济学家莫伊克的观点代表了资本市场的普遍焦虑,欧元区债务危机已经拖得太久,实在太需要一个惊喜了。

  莫伊克:基本上我们需要首先给市场一个惊喜,假如我们希望市场自发地改变其判断,我想明年信心才能恢复。这个惊喜包括诸如欧盟领导人的声明,建立统一财政联盟,而且欧洲央行能够被赋予责任发行欧元债券。

  但这也许只是莫伊克的一厢情愿,中国国际关系研究院欧洲经济专家刘明礼分析认为,达成一致基本不可能。

  刘明礼:两三个国家坐一起达成一致都非常难,要27个国家坐在一起达成一致,各个国家都有自己的诉求,有自己的利益考虑,都不愿意轻易让步,最后27个国家妥协是非常困难的,而且这27个国家妥协之后吧,并不是说这条约就通过了,各个成员国还得把条约拿回本国,由本国的议会授权或者全民公决。
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