Obama-Romney: A Tie or a Tie-breaker?

A Washington Post poll on the credibility of Obama and Romney to resolve the job problem shows that the candidates have the same ranking – 47 percent. In April, a New York Times election poll had the two candidates tied at 46 percent. Sentenced to battle it out in a violent and negative campaign, with PACs and super PACs making contributions of millions of dollars to their hearts' content, will these two men be able to lure the eight out of 10 Americans who feel negatively about the economy out of their pessimism? 30 percent of these Americans feel that their financial situation today is worse than in January 2009, when Obama was inaugurated. This is without mentioning the 55 percent who disapprove of his way of doing things. Can Obama produce a tie-breaker in this apparent draw with Romney without an economic miracle on the horizon?

Here are some reasons of hope for Obama, who with 49 percent in the polls against Romney’s 46 percent, would win if the election were held now:

- Americans want to believe, and even express bits of optimism, in an economic recovery from the 2008 catastrophe.

- Obama is recognized as being the one who better understands economic problems; this says a lot about the negative image associated with Romney—business executive and Bain Capital man—and the cuts made in the companies that he put back on track.

- 52 percent of voters feel that Obama has a better personality for being president than Romney, who has 39 percent of the vote in that area. The same goes for the candidates’ sense of values.

- The fight against inequality led by Obama seems to be favored by Americans who, at 56 percent, believe that a system that favors the rich is a greater problem than a government that doesn't regulate ... or overly does so.

- It is up to Obama to assert himself—in proximity and humanity—where Romney has obvious shortfalls:

More than 50 percent of Obama supporters are "very enthusiastic," while Romney can barely trigger momentum among his own troops that seem to follow him out of reason. Also, Obama is ahead of Romney by seven points with women—51 percent to 44 percent—Romney is disadvantaged by his conservative opinions.

Today, the Washington Post describes Obama as a candidate oscillating between two Bush situations: that of George H. Bush, seeking and losing his reelection in a dark economic climate without the means to act quickly, and that of George W. Bush in 2004, a winner whose figures weren't far off from those of the 44th president.

Obama will surprise Americans.