America's Presidential Election Unlikely to Bring the World New Hope

Published in Huanqiu
(China) on 18 October 2012
by Wenfeng Wang (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Dagny Dukach. Edited by Josie Mulberry.
Romney and Obama’s presidential election campaigns are now reaching fever pitch. The bilateral television debates comprise discussions of whether or not we ought to give Big Bird, of PBS’s veteran television show Sesame Street, the axe. This sounds a little ridiculous, but it in fact illustrates a very real problem: the reduction of the fiscal deficit, which has become a crucial topic in the U.S. presidential election.

As usual, the quadrennial U.S. election is drawing worldwide attention. In addition to studying and analyzing what sort of foreign policy the next U.S. president plans to implement, the U.S. election is of interest to the world because America is the world’s model for capitalism. Its policies are taken as examples across the globe; the manner in which the newly appointed president will lead America out of the current economic difficulties will be of great importance worldwide.

The banking and economic crisis, which originated in America before spreading across the Western world and persisting for four to five years, brought about profound global change. Indeed, it required every country to put aside many important issues and reforms just so that they might survive the crisis. Broadly speaking, there were two causes of the current crisis: the lack of oversight of the financial industry and Western nations’ long-term maintenance of high welfare policies.

The flame of this crisis was sparked by America, and so some adjustments and reforms were clearly necessary. Four years ago, Obama successfully made it into the White House under the banner of reform. During the past four years, America has advanced somewhat along the path of reform — through the Dodd-Frank Act, which strengthened regulation of the Wall Street financial community, and through the Affordable Care Act, which intends to offer more people medical insurance. But realistically speaking, the reforms were not only insufficient, but also unclear in direction. This has been the true focus of the fierce bilateral debates of this election campaign.

According to Obama and the Democratic Party, if the United States wants to break free from the economic difficulties that it is currently facing, it must still rely on the strength of the government. It must increase its investment in the economy, strengthen the administration of its institutions and improve through order and power. But according to Romney and the Republican Party, after four years with Obama in office, America has still not broken free of economic difficulty. So, they argue, the United States must completely reverse Obama’s policies, give decision-making power to businesses and the free market, let government intervention in the economy drop to a minimum and allow society to develop autonomously according to survival of the fittest. When it comes to these two philosophies, the former is essentially the continuation of Roosevelt’s New Deal and Keynesianism, while the latter embodies the American political tradition of opposition to government authority and emphasizes the role of society and individuals as carriers of new ideas. It can be said that these two diametrically opposed parties in fact hold wholly consistent viewpoints.

As they say, when America sneezes, the whole world catches a cold, but when the U.S. is in good health, there is hope for the rest of the world as well. Regardless of whether Romney or Obama is elected, whether they have a plan to lead the U.S. back up the path of economic prosperity or will push the U.S. further into the abyss of crisis is of interest not only to American voters, but also to the rest of the world, which is waiting to see and to learn. In this regard, the influence and impact of this year’s U.S. presidential election is quite substantial. However, when it comes to the contrast between Obama and Romney’s viewpoints, neither has yet been able to overcome America’s decades-long tradition of political partisanship. Old methods are facing new situations; they don’t seem to be coping very well. Moreover, new theories and ideas capable of effectively responding to real-world problems are developing slowly, if at all. Just as Francis Fukuyama lamented, first there was the right-wing ideological crisis and failure, and now left-wing ideology appears to be equally ineffective and powerless. Perhaps American and Western reform can only reach breakthroughs and find its true direction on a theoretical level. And in this sense, the American presidential election has yet to bring anyone much new hope.

The author is the deputy director of the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations Institute for American Studies.


王文峰:美国大选不会给世界新希望
2012-10-18 13:24环球时报
  罗姆尼和奥巴马的总统选战正打得火热。双方电视辩论内容包括要不要砍掉公共广播公司老牌节目“芝麻街”里的一只大鸟。这事听起来有些可笑,其实说明了一个很实际的问题,即如何削减财政赤字已成为这届美国总统选举一个至关重要的话题。
  四年一度的美国总统大选,如往常一样吸引着全世界的关注,除了各国都要研判和分析下一任美国总统会对本国实施怎样的外交政策之外,还因为美国是资本主义世界的标杆,其政策实践具有全球示范作用,对全世界来说,新任总统如何带领美国走出当前的经济困境,这是一个非常重要的看点。
  这场发端于美国、席卷整个西方世界、持续已达四五年的金融和经济危机,给世界带来了深刻变化,也确实需要各国做出许多重大的调整和改革,才可能真正度过危机。非常粗线条地总结造成此次危机的原因,大致有两点:对金融行业的监管不力,以及西方国家长期维持的高福利政策。
  美国作为危机的始作俑者,调整和改革当然是必需。四年前奥巴马打着改革的旗号,成功入主白宫。这四年来,美国在改革的道路上走了一程,通过了对华尔街金融界加强监管的“多德-弗兰克法案”和旨在给更多人提供医疗保险的“医疗改革法案”。但现实地讲,改革不仅在力度上不够,在方向上也不明晰。后一点正是双方在选战中激烈争论的焦点。
  对奥巴马和民主党来讲,美国欲摆脱当前面临的经济困境,还得靠政府的力量,经济上加大投入,制度上加强管理,形成有利于发展的秩序和动力。而在罗姆尼和共和党看来,奥巴马执政的四年美国仍未走出经济困境,必须彻底逆转奥巴马的政策,把决定权交给企业和市场,让政府在经济中的作用降到最低限度,让社会按优胜劣汰发展自行运转。这两种理念,前者基本是罗斯福“新政”和凯恩斯主义的延续,后者则是美国政治传统中反对政府权威、强调社会与个人作用思想的继承。可以说,两个对立的阵营其实抱着的都是自己一贯的主张。
  俗话说,美国打喷嚏,世界要感冒,美国身体好,世界也会看到希望。无论奥巴马和罗姆尼谁当选,他们是否有办法将美国重新拉回经济强盛之路,或者将美国推向更深的危机深渊,不仅美国选民等着看,世界也在等着看,甚至等着学。就此而言,今年美国大选的世界影响不可谓不大。然而,从奥、罗二人的立场对比看,并未摆脱美国政治维持几十年的左右分野。老办法面对新形势,似乎都不太好使,而能有效应对现实问题的新理论、新思想又迟迟没有产生。正如弗兰西斯·福山所悲叹的,在右派意识形态因这场危机而失灵后,左派思想也同样显得无力无助。或许只有在理论层面取得突破,美国的改革、西方的改革才能真正找到方向。从这个意义上说,今年的美国大选至今还没有给人带来多少新希望。▲(作者是中国现代国际关系研究院美国所副所长)
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