Why is China So Targeted in the Presidential Elections?

Published in Huanqiu
(China) on 18 October 2012
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Jingman Xiao . Edited by Kyrstie Lane  .
The second U.S. presidential debate took place on the morning of Oct. 17, Beijing time. During the debate, the candidates mentioned China as many as 20 times, mostly in terms of the economy and trade. The sluggish U.S. economy has turned China into a target for both political parties as they try to evade responsibility and divert domestic problems.

Ohio has become the front line for the newest wave of election competition, with both candidates playing the “China card”. This swing state is hotly contested and is of strategic importance for the election. As 13 percent of the population of Ohio works in the manufacturing industry, both campaign teams see cracking down on the great manufacturing power of China as a useful tool for gaining a favorable impression from the electorate of Ohio. Therefore, since September, Obama and Romney have taken turns appearing in Ohio and throwing money into campaign advertising with a focus on China.

For example, advertisements by Romney's team blame Obama for not accusing China of currency manipulation, which they say has led to the outflow of millions of jobs overseas. They accuse him of sitting back and watching China “steal” various ideas and techniques from Americans and apply these to the development of its own industries, including computers and aircraft.

On the other hand, Obama’s camp attacks Romney for cultivating the image that he is against trade with China, even while building up his person fortune by investing in it. Further, having found a vulnerable point in Romney’s 2011 tax returns and personal income reports, Obama criticized Romney’s previous trust fund investments in the China National Offshore Oil Cooperation and Youku.

Despite the frequent and eloquent tongue-lashings toward China, a harsh policy toward China is little more than a strategy developed by the candidates during an election year in order to foster a tough and unyielding image. In reality, they do not have hugely divergent policies toward China.

Obama’s campaign has focused on talk of gaining back American jobs that the manufacturing industry lost to China and on strengthening the intensity of investigations of China in the international trade arena. On the other hand, Romney’s most conspicuous remark has been that he will label China as a “currency manipulator” the first day he moves into the White House. Further, he has criticized Obama’s overly mild policy toward China in terms of employment, military, human rights, etc.

Needless to say, compared with these verbal attacks from Romney, as the current president Obama has better access to and can allocate more administrative resources when playing the “China card”. For example, on Sept. 17 the Obama administration requested a consultation with the World Trade Organization and accused the Chinese government of providing subsidies of at least U.S. $1 billion to their auto and auto parts export industries from 2009 to 2011. On Sept. 29, Obama gave orders to prevent a Chinese owned company from purchasing a U.S. wind farm project.

In recent years, the rapid, continued growth of the Chinese economy coupled with the decline in America’s economy and power has subtly changed how the presidents and candidates talk about China and related issues.

In the past, presidents and candidates from both parties often played the “China card,” but China was always in the position of being scolded, educated or even assisted. For example, in 1999, Clinton condescendingly offered to help China better integrate with the world. In 2008, George W. Bush claimed that America would help China make better use of green energy. However, when it comes to Obama and Romney, such offers no longer exist. Obama has even expressed worries that the U.S. might fall behind China and become “Number Two” in the world.

This shows that both political parties have admitted that China has risen in power and influence. According to both parties, the rise of a peaceful and prosperous China is beneficial to the U.S. This should be the starting point of the next U.S. president’s new China policy for the next four years.

Although we see that both Obama and Romney’s attitudes toward China have changed, most Americans still hold on to a belief in so-called “American Exceptionalism.” Romney’s election slogan is “Believe in America,” which according to what he expresses in his autobiography “No Apology” could more accurately be “Believe in American Exceptionalism.” In his autobiography, he analyzes the decline of other historical superpowers, including imperial China, and explains why America will not suffer from this same decline, even in the coming post-economic crisis era. Whether or not this is purely for campaign purposes, his position undoubtedly mirrors the deep-rooted psychological attachment of many Americans, especially older generations, to the position of the U.S. as a superpower.

Because of this sentiment, President Obama must develop a similar, unequivocal attitude of believing in American supremacy, particularly when dealing with domestic issues and political activities such as elections, despite the practical reality of a multipolar world order.

Sino-American relations are without any doubt among the most important and complicated bilateral relations in the world. Through the lens of the U.S. election, it is easier to observe the complex attitudes of Americans toward China, especially in terms of the changing power relations between China and the U.S. The complexity of this mentality is even more apparent after the 2008 financial crisis. It has turned out to be a surprise to both Americans and Chinese that the situation could change so quickly.

This common practice of criticizing China while canvassing demonstrates the obvious similarities between the two candidates and their campaigns. But what is the logic behind it? In reality, it reflects the mentality of American voters.

According to Elizabeth Economides, the director of Asian Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, with the rise of China’s power and international position the next U.S. president will have to work with China to confront nearly all global challenges, from Iran and North Korea to global financial regulation and climate change.

According to research published by the Pew Research Center on Sept. 19, two-thirds of Americans think China and the U.S. have a sound relationship. 55 percent of the general public agrees that the U.S. should build strong ties with China, while up to 84 percent of government officials, scholars, businessmen and other “expert” groups hold this view. Nevertheless, most Americans still regard China as their competitor and rival, and 56 percent of the public and 49 percent of the experts think America should remain tough and uncompromising in areas of trade and the economy. Moreover, only a small percentage of people believe China is reliable.

However, it is worth noting that of the younger generation of Americans, namely those under thirty, 43 percent believe China is reliable. This could have a certain degree of influence on U.S. foreign policy in the future.

Analysts believe that the increasing use of the “China card” in the U.S. elections is attributable to the fact that a considerable number of Americans have contradictory, complex views on China, with more attention being paid to China day by day.

Although Obama and Romney frequently play the “China card,” this is simply a campaign strategy. No matter who is elected, the next president will act with extreme prudence on issues concerning the country’s key relationship with China.

Laura Tyson, a former economic consultant for the Clinton administration, believes that if Obama is re-elected he will continue with his current China policy. Thus, during the campaign, he will avoid adopting an excessively radical stance in order to avoid an image of passivity in the future.

Peter Pfeiffer, a professor of political science at Duke University, points out that in diplomacy, presidential candidates deliberately craft fierce speeches for the elections but will return to reality after they win the election. Their more extreme and radical stances will not be realized.

Harvard professor Tony Saich, a well-known American expert on Chinese issues, claims that “during the political period of elections, it is more than normal to find more voices, attitudes and actions against China. The exchange rate problem that Romney has focused on cannot be solved overnight, and the imposition of a series of anti-protectionist sanctions by Obama does not mean he is willing to witness a trade war between the two powers. Once a candidate becomes president, he will realize that the U.S. must keep a relatively normal relationship with China. This distinction between pre-election and post-election positions also occurred with George W. Bush and Bill Clinton, as well as some other former presidents.”*

He also believes China’s understanding of American political phenomena has grown more mature and says “it is just the impact of the election, let us wait and see what happens after the president is elected.”*

Elizabeth Economides, of the Council on Foreign Relations, indicates that China’s rising international status will probably pose some challenges for the next U.S. president. Since the increasing power of China is constantly changing the world order, U.S.-China relations cannot be confined to themes of trade, Taiwan and human rights. The next president must confront almost every global challenge with China, from Iran and North Korea to global financial regulation and climate change.


*Editor’s Note: These quotes, while accurately translated, could not be verified.



美总统选战为何爱拿中国说事?
在北京时间17日上午举行了第二轮美国总统竞选辩论,罗姆尼和奥巴马在这场辩论中提到中国的次数多达20次,其中大部分是在谈到经济和贸易议题上涉及的。由于美国经济目前依然疲软,中国变成了两位总统候选人推脱责任、转移矛盾的靶子。
在两位美国总统候选人掀起的新一轮“中国牌”竞选对攻中,俄亥俄州成为前沿阵地。俄亥俄州是大选“摇摆州”,为总统竞选必争之地。该州有13%的居民从事制造业,因此奥巴马和罗姆尼的竞选团队都认为,敲打制造业大国中国的做法会获得该州选民的好感。于是乎,9月份以来,奥巴马和罗姆尼在俄亥俄州你方唱罢我登场,竞选广告也几度更新投放,关键词均锁定中国。
以罗姆尼团队为例,广告内容几乎雷同,责难奥巴马一直拒绝将中国定义为汇率操纵国,致使美国数以百万的工作机会流向海外,更指责他坐视中国从电脑到战斗机“偷窃美国人各种创意和技术”。
反观奥巴马阵营,抨击罗姆尼一边投资中国来发家一边批评打造“对华贸易战士”形象,还从罗姆尼公布的个人2011年收入及报税情况中抓住“小辫子”,指责罗姆尼旗下信托基金曾投资中海油和优酷。
尽管动辄口若悬河,候选人对华“斗狠”不过是其大选年树立“美国硬汉”形象的策略之一,对华立场实质上并无巨大分歧。
在奥巴马方面,矛头主要集中在为美国人“重夺”流失给中国的制造业工作岗位、在贸易领域对中国所谓“不公平竞争”加大追查力度;在罗姆尼方面,其最出位言论是强调入住白宫首日就将把中国列为“汇率操纵国”,在就业、军事、人权等领域均抨击奥巴马现有对华政策“心太软”。
当然,比起口头攻讦,现任总统奥巴马打起“中国牌”有更多行政资源可以调配。比如,9月17日,奥巴马政府向世贸组织提起磋商请求,指责中国政府在2009年至2011年对汽车及零部件“出口基地”提供至少10亿美元补贴。9月28日,奥巴马又下令阻止一家中资公司对美国风电场项目收购。
近年来,由于中国经济的持续快速增长,加上美国经济和实力的衰弱,美国总统及候选人谈及中国时的口气和话题已发生了微妙变化。
过去,美国两党的总统及候选人也常打出“中国牌”,但中国经常是被“教训”、“教育”甚至“帮扶”对象,如1999年克林顿曾居高临下地说:“要帮助中国融入世界”,2008年小布什也声称要“帮助”中国更好地利用清洁能源,但到了奥巴马和罗姆尼时已无这样的高姿态,奥巴马甚至一度担心美国落后于中国“沦为老二”。
这表明,美国两党均已正视了中国崛起的事实,正如两党党纲所表明的那样,一个和平崛起的、繁荣的中国对美国有利,而这理应是未来四年新一任美国总统制定对华政策的出发点。
尽管我们能够察觉出奥巴马和罗姆尼对中国态度的变化,但当前大部分美国人仍坚持着所谓的“美国优越主义”。
罗姆尼的竞选口号是“相信美国”。说的更直白些,就如他在自传《无可致歉》中的表态,他所坚信的乃是美国优越主义。在这本书中,他着力剖析历史上包括昔日中国在内的其他大国如何衰败、而美国又为何不会在“后金融危机时代”走向衰退。无论是否纯系竞选目的,其表态的确反映出当前美国人、尤其是中老年一代对美国“超级大国”地位根深蒂固的情结。
正因为这样一种情结,尽管在实际操作中面对的是多极化世界格局,现任领导人奥巴马在国内事务舞台上、特别是大选这类政治活动中,也必须旗帜鲜明地“相信美国”。
中美关系无疑是当今世界最重要、也最为复杂的双边关系之一。以大选为窗口更容易观测到,尤其是在中美两国力量对比显现出变化的过程中,美国社会各界对中国的态度也有着复杂心态。这种心态之复杂在2008年国际金融危机后更为凸显简单来说,或许双方此前都未曾意料到,形势可以变化如此之快。
批中国,拉选票,显然两位美国总统候选人不约而同地在这两者之间画上了等号。那么这背后的逻辑又是什么?其实将两者联系起来的纽带就是美国选民的心态。
中美关系无疑是当今世界最重要、也最复杂的双边关系之一。尤其是在中美两国力量对比发生变化的过程中,美国社会各界对中国的态度也带有一定复杂性。
美国外交学会专家伊丽莎白•伊科诺米表示,随着中国实力和国际地位不断上升,在下一任美国总统眼中,美国“必须与中国一起面对几乎所有全球挑战”,从伊朗问题、朝鲜问题、全球金融监管到气候变化。
据皮尤研究中心9月18日公布的研究结果,三分之二的美国人认为美中保持着较好关系,55%的美国公众认为美国应与中国建立强有力的关系,而在政府官员、学者、商界等“专家群体”中,持这一观点的比例高达84%。不过,大部分美国人也视中国为竞争对手,分别有56%的公众和49%的专家认为应在经贸领域对中国采取较强硬立场。而且,认为可以信赖中国的公众比例不高。
但值得注意的是,在30岁以下的美国年青一代中,认为中国值得信赖的受访者比例达到43%,这或许将对未来美国外交政策走向产生一定影响。
分析人士认为,正是因为相当一部分美国人对中国持有一种日益重视但又有所防备的复杂心态,才使得“中国牌”在美国总统竞选中越来越频繁地出现。
虽然奥巴马和罗姆尼近来频打“中国牌”,但这更多是出于竞选战略的考虑,最终无论谁当选,考虑到与中国的重要关系,在兑现“中国牌”时都会慎之又慎。
前克林顿政府经济顾问劳拉•泰森表示,如果奥巴马连任,相信他还将延续其现有对华政策。因此,在竞选过程中,奥巴马也会避免过于偏激的立场以免今后陷入被动。
杜克大学政治学教授彼得•菲弗指出,在外交领域,总统候选人往往为了竞选考量而言辞激烈,但若当选则必然回归现实,一些过激的竞选言论最终往往只是“说说而已”。
美国知名中国问题专家、哈佛大学教授托尼•赛奇表示,“在大选政治周期内,你的确会面对更多反对中国的声音、姿态、行动,这再正常不过。罗姆尼所针对的汇率问题本身就不能一蹴而就解决;奥巴马提出了一系列反贸易保护制裁,但无疑他也不希望看到一场美中之间的贸易战。等到他们其中一位真正竞选成功,就会意识到还是要和中国保持一种相对正常的关系。这种选前选后的差异在小布什、克林顿等前总统身上都曾有所体现。”
他还认为,中方如今对此类美国政治现象的理解也已更为成熟,更能理解“这是大选的影响,让我们耐心等等看他当选后究竟如何”。
美国外交学会亚洲研究主任伊丽莎白•伊科诺米表示,中国不断上升的国际地位可能对下一任美国总统带来挑战,中国力量增强正不断改变着世界格局,因此美中关系不能仅仅局限于贸易、台湾、人权这三大主题,下一任总统“必须与中国一起面对几乎所有全球挑战”,从伊朗问题、朝鲜问题、全球金融监管到气候变化。
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