War with the US Would Be Political Suicide
Published in Frankfurter Rundschau
(Germany) on 1 April 2013
by Bernhard Bartsch (link to original)
(Germany) on 1 April 2013
by Bernhard Bartsch (link to original)
Translated from
by Ron Argentati.
Edited by Hana Livingston.
Does Kim Jong Un really want war? The North Korean dictator has been rattling his saber for weeks now, each a day a little louder. But Kim's appetite for war is little more than a transparent bluff.
This past weekend, Kim Jong Un announced that his nation is in a state of war, that the United States faces attack and that he is massively expanding his nuclear arsenal. Sounds threatening — but is it a reality?
Kim’s appetite for war is little more than a transparent bluff. Declarations aside, North Korea already exists in a state of war; there was never a peace treaty with South Korea after hostilities ended with a truce in 1953.
North Korea currently lacks the technological capability to carry out a nuclear strike against the United States and, should it resume nuclear testing, it would risk relations with China, North Korea’s only remaining ally. War with the United States would be tantamount to political suicide.
Kim knows this, of course, and his bellicose rhetoric has been closely controlled. Domestic politics are probably the underlying motive.
Kim’s regime needs the United States as a bogeyman to justify the desolate conditions in which North Korea finds itself. But Kim doesn't have many degrees of escalation left in his arsenal — his game of rhetoric is rapidly approaching its limits. The only option remaining to him now would be an attack on South Korea, as he tried recently in 2010. But the consequences of such a move would adversely affect North Korea more than they would South Korea, which would probably prevent Kim from taking action.
Photo caption: Kim Jong Un may be threatening war, but in North Korea’s parliament he has announced that his nation is open to foreign investment.
This past weekend, Kim Jong Un announced that his nation is in a state of war, that the United States faces attack and that he is massively expanding his nuclear arsenal. Sounds threatening — but is it a reality?
Kim’s appetite for war is little more than a transparent bluff. Declarations aside, North Korea already exists in a state of war; there was never a peace treaty with South Korea after hostilities ended with a truce in 1953.
North Korea currently lacks the technological capability to carry out a nuclear strike against the United States and, should it resume nuclear testing, it would risk relations with China, North Korea’s only remaining ally. War with the United States would be tantamount to political suicide.
Kim knows this, of course, and his bellicose rhetoric has been closely controlled. Domestic politics are probably the underlying motive.
Kim’s regime needs the United States as a bogeyman to justify the desolate conditions in which North Korea finds itself. But Kim doesn't have many degrees of escalation left in his arsenal — his game of rhetoric is rapidly approaching its limits. The only option remaining to him now would be an attack on South Korea, as he tried recently in 2010. But the consequences of such a move would adversely affect North Korea more than they would South Korea, which would probably prevent Kim from taking action.
Photo caption: Kim Jong Un may be threatening war, but in North Korea’s parliament he has announced that his nation is open to foreign investment.
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