Obama, the Strongest Legacy of Scandals

Published in La Stampa
(Italy) on 19 May 2013
by Gianni Riotta (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Axel Ndianabo. Edited by Chris Basham.
Ugly days for American President Barack Obama: The Republicans accuse him of not protecting Ambassador to Libya Christopher Stevens and three other American officials from being killed; the conservative tea party is furious because its funding has been held at gunpoint by the U.S. government’s tax agency, the Internal Revenue Service; even the liberal “Praetorian Guard” of the White House has complained about the Department of Justice’s nosy behavior in relation to the seizure of Associated Press phone records.

Whether real or alleged, every president in their second term is a victim of scandals, while the opposition, and a petulant press incapable of constructive analysis and criticism, just tries to limit the work being done. Before Monica Lewinsky was in the picture, President Bill Clinton and his wife were tortured with speculation in Arkansas regarding the Whitewater case, which nobody really understood. Reagan offered a cake to Iran’s ayatollahs in the wretched Iran-Contra affair. Bush Jr. was crucified because of the flood in New Orleans caused by Hurricane Katrina.

Distraught Republicans are actually asking for Obama’s impeachment.

It will be tough, as only two presidents have been impeached in the more than 200-year history of the republic: Andrew Johnson in 1868 and Clinton in 1998, and they were both acquitted. The burst of scandals serves as an agenda to keep the president in check, cripple health care reform, and stop both immigration reform and his agenda for the working class.

How will the White House react? Cerebral, detached and Hamlet-like, Barack Obama has so far managed to evade nonpartisan critics, both in the United States and in Europe. Denounced by the right wing as a “socialist” and praised by his supporters as a “true liberal,” Obama is instead only a moderate centrist. In his books, he encourages the end of political clashes in the United States and rebukes minorities for their cult of victimhood. “Pull your pants up, brothers,” and go to work, he admonishes young African- Americans.

As for foreign policy, after the magnificent speech in 2009 at Al-Azhar University in Cairo in which he promised to “reset” dialogue with Muslims, greeting them with “As-salaam alaikum,” Obama has ordered more missile drone raids than those ordered under “the hawk,” Bush Jr. Republicans have a hard time trying to depict him as a leftist because Obama thinks like most Americans: We should leave Iraq and Afghanistan, may God save us from intervening in Syria and we should hit terrorists with remote-controlled robots without putting our soldiers’ lives at risk. It seems difficult to sustain that this position is “liberal,” but the president’s charm serves as cosmetic politics.

In the now out of print “Conflict in the Shadows,“ James Eliot Cross had already predicted in 1963 that bombings remove the local populations’ trust: “Aviation is too quick for ‘political’ wars; there is no distinction between the enemy combatant and the innocent civilian man and woman even if soldiers make themselves seen by waving their rifles. The loss of civilian support in bombings weighs more than any success against ousted guerrillas.”*

Cross, a top expert on counterinsurgency, was referring to Vietnam, but his words now weigh heavy on Obama. At the same time, how can a president be depicted as “weak” when he throws missile drones from the White House like Zeus threw thunderbolts from Mount Olympus?

Barring unexpected events, Obama will probably get away with it all. His inability to “make politics” within Congress is now clearly established, as it garners Republican votes — for example in the worthy but failed reform of the Second Amendment right to bear arms — with Lincoln’s patience and humility, as portrayed recently in Spielberg’s beautiful movie. Obama’s irritated rivals and baffled supporters will both end up losing track of the grade history will award Barack Obama. His charisma is not reflected in the approved reforms, but the president — thanks to the rational understanding of the 21st century United States, identified via Big Data collected by his collaborators — has changed the nature of United States politics. Today, the Democratic Party has dominance over both coasts’ modernizing urban classes, women and emigrants, which form the future majority. Dullness on the part of the Republicans relegates them to a minor party position, one in which the Democrats languished from 1968 to 1988, winning not only once in twenty 20 years, but also badly with Carter.

Back then, Democrats used to select radical candidates for the primaries and ended up being beaten by centrists in the presidential race, but now the same destiny is faced by Republicans, who if not for the whims of the tea party, would control the Senate.

This historic legacy inherited by Obama leaves the party, not the country, with a new social coalition. With the exception of Eisenhower’s moderate centrist spells, Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s coalition kept Democrats in the White House from 1933 to 1968 thanks to workers, intellectuals, minorities and trade unions. Obama picks up minorities, “near majorities,” the technologically savvy, women and cities. Nixon turned the tables and gave to centrist Republicans of the Grand Old Party a generation of hegemony with whites in the South and workers hostile to 1968: How long will it take for his heirs to beat the extremist right wing and restart dialogue with Hispanics and liberated women?

According to many observers, Obama’s line-up will last at least one generation. I think that the progressive-conservative pendulum that the historian Arthur Schlesinger considered the symbol of American politics does not move to the languid blues rhythm of Ella Fitzgerald anymore, but to the frenetic cadence of rapper Nas. Obama has revolutionized America’s political sheet music and will survive the troubles he faces today. Republicans will, however, end up learning how to play — in a musical way — the Hispanic salsa, tracks from the televised singing competition “The Voice,” loved by young people, and African-American rap. But so far, the conducting baton of the American Great Orchestra remains in the hands of Conductor Obama.

*Editor’s note: This quote, accurately translated, could not be sourced.


Brutti giorni per il presidente americano Barack Obama: i repubblicani lo accusano di non avere protetto l’ambasciatore ucciso in Libia con altri tre funzionari; il movimento conservatore dei Tea Party è furioso perché l’Irs, il fisco Usa, ha tenuto sotto mira i suoi finanziamenti; perfino la sinistra liberal, Guardia Pretoriana della Casa Bianca, lamenta un ministero della Giustizia ficcanaso sulle telefonate dei cronisti Associated Press.
Ogni presidente nel secondo mandato è vittima di scandali, veri o presunti, con cui l’opposizione, e una stampa ridotta alla petulanza dall’incapacità di analisi e di critica serie, cercano di limitarne l’opera. Prima di Monica Lewinsky, Clinton e sua moglie furono martoriati su una speculazione in Arkansas, il caso Whitewater, di cui nessuno capì il senso. Reagan inviò una torta agli ayatollah in Iran, nella vicenda disgraziata Iran-Contras. Bush figlio fu crocifisso per l’alluvione a New Orleans.
I repubblicani esagitati chiedono addirittura l’impeachment, l’incriminazione davanti al Senato, contro Obama.

Sarà dura, nella storia bisecolare della Repubblica solo due presidenti sono stati rinviati a giudizio, Andrew Johnson nel 1868 e Clinton nel 1998, entrambi prosciolti. La raffica di scandali serve a tenere il Presidente sotto scacco, paralizzare la riforma sanitaria, bloccare la legge sull’immigrazione, stopparne l’agenda per il ceto medio.
Come reagirà la Casa Bianca? Fin qui Barack Obama, cerebrale, distaccato, amletico, è riuscito a eludere le critiche non di parte, sia in America che in Europa. Denunciato a destra come «socialista» e coccolato dai sostenitori «un vero liberal», Obama è invece solo un centrista moderato. Nei suoi libri incoraggia la fine dello scontro politico in America e rimprovera le minoranze per il culto del vittimismo. «Tiratevi su i pantaloni fratelli» e andate a lavorare dice severo ai giovani afroamericani. In politica estera, dopo il magnifico discorso del 2009 all’Università del Cairo Al-Azhar in cui promise di «Ricominciare» il dialogo con i musulmani salutandoli «Assalaamu alaykum», Obama ha ordinato più raid con i missili droni di quanti non ne siano partiti sotto «il falco» Bush figlio. I repubblicani hanno difficoltà a dipingerlo da sinistrorso perché Obama la pensa giusto come la maggioranza degli americani: via dall’Iraq, via dall’Afghanistan, Dio ci scampi dall’intervenire in Siria, colpiamo i terroristi senza mettere a rischio i soldati, con robot teleguidati. Che questa sia una posizione «liberal» sembra difficile da sostenere, ma il fascino del presidente funge da cosmesi politica.

I bombardamenti allontanano la fiducia delle popolazioni civili predicava già nel 1963, in un testo dimenticato, James Eliot Cross, «Conflict in the shadows», guerra nell’ombra: «L’aviazione è troppo veloce per le guerre “politiche”, non distingue il nemico combattente dall’uomo o la donna civile e innocente, nemmeno se i soldati si fanno riconoscere agitando i fucili. La perdita di consenso dei bombardamenti sui civili pesa più di qualunque successo contro i guerriglieri eliminati». Cross, massimo esperto di controguerriglia, parlava di Vietnam ma la sua massima pesa adesso su Obama. Al tempo stesso, però, come dipingere da «debole» un presidente che scaglia dalla Casa Bianca missili droni come Zeus le sue folgori dall’Olimpo?
È dunque probabile che il Presidente se la cavi, salvo imprevisti. È ormai assodata la sua incapacità di «far politica» in Congresso, raccogliendo i voti dei repubblicani – per esempio sul porto d’armi, riforma benemerita e fallita - con la pazienza e l’umiltà di Lincoln nel bellissimo film di Spielberg. Ma i suoi rivali irritati e i suoi sostenitori perplessi, finiscono insieme per perdere la cifra che la Storia assegnerà a Barack Obama. Il suo carisma non trova riscontro nelle riforme approvate, ma il Presidente – grazie alla comprensione razionale dell’America del XXI secolo, identificata via Big Data raccolti dai suoi collaboratori - ha cambiato natura alla politica Usa. Oggi il partito democratico ha l’egemonia sui ceti urbani modernizzanti delle due coste, tra le donne e spopola tra gli emigranti, futura maggioranza. L’ottusità partigiana relega i repubblicani nella condizione di partito di minoranza in cui i democratici hanno languito dal 1968 al 1988, vincendo in venti anni una sola volta, e male, con Carter.
Allora i democratici premiavano alle primarie i candidati radicali, finendo bastonati alle presidenziali dai centristi, ora lo stesso destino tocca ai repubblicani che, senza le ubbie dei Tea Party, controllerebbero anche il Senato.

Questa eredità storica Obama lascia non al Paese, ma al partito: una nuova coalizione sociale. La coalizione di F.D. Roosevelt tenne – con la parentesi centrista e moderata di Eisenhower - i democratici alla Casa Bianca dal 1933 al 1968 grazie a lavoratori, intellettuali, minoranze, sindacati. Obama raccoglie minoranze «quasi maggioranze», ceti tecnologici, donne, città. Nixon rigirò la bilancia e diede una generazione di egemonia centrista ai repubblicani del Grand Old Party con i bianchi del Sud e gli operai ostili al 1968: quanto ci vorrà perché i suoi eredi battano la destra estremista e tornino a dialogare con ispanici e donne emancipate? Secondo molti osservatori lo schieramento di Obama durerà almeno una generazione. Secondo me il pendolo Progressisti-Conservatori che lo storico Arthur Schlesinger considerava simbolo della politica americana non si muove più al ritmo languido di un blues di Ella Fitzgerald, ma alla frenetica cadenza del rapper Nas. Obama ne ha rivoluzionato lo spartito e sopravviverà ai guai di oggi. I repubblicani impareranno però infine a suonare la salsa ispanica, i brani di The Voice cari alle donne giovani e la musica rap dei neri. Per ora, alla Grande Orchestra America, il bastone da direttore resta in mano al Maestro Obama.
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