Obama Needs the Right

Published in Oriental Morning Post
(China) on 13 February 2009
by Xue Yong (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Peter Stevens. Edited by Katy Burtner.
America has become the first country in the world to release a nearly $3 trillion dollar stimulus plan. After U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner announced the $2 trillion stabilization plan, Congress voted to pass the $838 billion government stimulus plan.

President Obama is new to office and struggling to promote a series of economic recovery plans. Tim Daschle, his nominee for Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services, had to step down due to a tax-evasion scandal, leaving Obama with no choice but to admit his mistake. However, for a president, these are small setbacks - the big trouble is still to come. In my opinion, for Obama to ultimately be successful, a fundamental prerequisite will be the Right.

For the past ten years or so, American politics has been poisoned by partisan politics. Polls repeatedly show that the majority of voters take centrist positions and are very suspicious of the radical lines taken by the Left and the Right. This silent majority has not been represented amidst the partnership of recent years and Bush is mainly responsible for this. He narrowly beat Gore in 2000, thanks in large part to his so-called "compassionate conservatism," which represented a warm and conservative stance that won acceptance among the country's center-right. But, after taking office, he adopted a strategy I described at the time as "from God, not from the People." Conservatives had several advantages over liberals: a sharp rightward turn and a base in the extreme right-wing, leaving the center unsure where to turn between liberal and conservative extremes and ensuring the Democrats were overwhelmed by twelve percentage points. This strategy was certainly effective in the short-term, allowing Bush to be re-elected, but it divided the country, narrowed the Republican Party's base, and damaged the Republicans' long-term interests.

The reason Obama won this last election so smoothly is because the Republican Party did not seek change: it did not diversify its base or its ideology, adopt a "50-state" strategy, or overcome internal party disputes. In the 2006 midterm election, the Democrats retook Congress in one fell swoop, relying not on its own base and ideology, but on a group of Republican voters. The Obama campaign also promised to rise above partisan politics, even adopting Ronald Reagan as a model, with the result being a landslide victory with wins in a number of Republican states. Nowadays Americans are turning to the left, but it is by no means a leftist country and is more likely to remain a centrist or center-right nation. The greatest objective of Obama's New Deal is to go beyond a single liberal ideology and form a cross-party coalition. Keeping Defense Secretary Gates in office and selecting a Republican for Commerce Secretary also reflects this goal.

But, when he does things this way, Obama needs to resist pressure from the left. This pressure is increasing, along with the start of Obama's New Deal. For example, in a column called "Stuck in the Middle," left-wing New York Times columnist and economist Paul Krugman attacked Obama's inauguration speech for being too centrist and not liberal enough. Despite Krugman’s past research and recent Nobel Prize, his articles often do not teach the lessons of economics. He vigorously supported increased government investment throughout the crisis and admittedly such a position can be defended from an economic standpoint. But, when some economists suggested that increased government spending would crowd out private spending, he did not address this issue. In this column, he attacked Obama's speech on "collective responsibility," saying that since only a handful of Wall Street businessmen were responsible, how can the crisis be the public's fault?

This fully demonstrates the ideological divide between liberals and conservatives. Conservatives emphasize individual responsibility, while liberals emphasize the rights of the individual, even going beyond rights to protect the individual. The sub-prime mortgage problem, for example, is one factor that set off the financial crisis. Of course Wall Street bears some responsibility in this matter, but you cannot hear the sound of one hand clapping. The reason why sub-prime loans have had such harmful effects is that many ordinary people were given the right to purchase housing far in excess of their incomes - a person making $40,000 a year, with $5,000 in savings could qualify to buy a $500,000 house. If the value of the house dropped below $400,000, the owner would still owe more than $400,000. In such cases, homeowners simply default: they don't want the house and don't pay back the mortgage either. The banks that lent to these people, of course, created their own problems. However, don't these mindlessly consuming defaulters not bear some responsibility? Most people blame the economic crisis on "minorities", which is as absurd as Americans blaming their own over-consumption on excessive Chinese savings.

Obama has stressed collective responsibility and has said that he recognizes the merits of the Republican political philosophy. This shows progress. If he can implement this kind of rationality in his policies, then he has the possibility of great success. To do this, however, he must first resist asinine minds on the left such as Paul Krugman. Today, with the Republican Party routed, it is difficult for it to form effective checks and balances against the Democrats. The Obama administration seems destined for high morale and at the moment its greatest temptation - and the easiest mistake - would be to make a sharp turn to the left.


当地时间10日,美国成为世界上第一个在一天之内出台近3万亿美元救市规模的国家。在美国财政部长盖特纳公布其2万亿美元金融稳定计划之后,美国参议院中规中矩地投票通过了8380亿美元的财政刺激计划。

  奥巴马新官上任,正在艰难地推动一系列经济振兴计划,而他提名的健康和人力资源部长达什勒因为漏税丑闻不得不退出,奥巴马也不得不出来认错。不过,作为总统,这些还仅仅是小挫折,大麻烦估计还在后面。在我看来,奥巴马要最终成功,一个基本的前提就是反左。

  美国的政治,最近十几年被保守派和自由派的左右之争给毒化了。民调反复地显示:大多数选民对保守派和自由派的激进路线都非常怀疑,所持的是中间派的温和立场。而正是这些沉默的大多数,在近年来的党争中没有被代表。为此负主要责任的是布什。他2000年之所以险胜戈尔,一大原因就是他的所谓“有同情心的保守主义”代表着温和的保守主义立场,能够为中间偏右的国家所接受。但是,他上台后采取了我当时所形容的“不得人心而得天下”的策略,仗着保守派比自由派有二比一的优势,急剧右转,把极右翼作为自己的基地,让中间选民在左右两个极端之间无所适从,保证以一两个百分点压倒民主党。这一策略,在短期内确实很有效果,使他得以连任;但却分裂了国家,并缩小了共和党的统治基础,损害了其长期利益。

  奥巴马这次赢得这么顺利,长期的原因,是民主党在失败中求变、摆脱了立足于本党基地和意识形态的策略,采取了“五十州战略”,海纳百川,超越党派分歧。2006年中期民主党选举一举夺回国会,靠的不是自己的自由派意识形态,而是一群保守的民主党候选人。这次奥巴马竞选,也许诺采取新的、超越党派的政治,甚至把里根当成自己的楷模,结果拿下了几个共和党的州,获得压倒性的胜利。如今美国民情左转,但绝不是一个左翼国家,而更可能还是个中间偏右或者中间派的国家。奥巴马新政的一个最大的使命,就是超越自由派的单一意识形态,结成跨党联盟。他把盖茨留任国防部长,物色共和党人做商业部长等等,也体现了这样的诚意。

  但是,当他这样做时,必须抵抗党内左翼的压力。这种压力,正随着奥巴马新政的展开而增加。比如,《纽约时报》的左翼专栏作家克鲁格曼就在自己的专栏中发表《卡在了中间》一文,攻击奥巴马的就职演说太中间派,不够左。此公因为过去的经济学研究而刚刚获得诺贝尔奖,但政治上非常左,最近写文章经常不讲经济学之家法。比如,他大肆鼓吹加大政府投资度过危机。这样的立场,本身完全可以从经济学的角度加以捍卫。但是,当一些经济学家指出政府开支的加大将挤压私有经济的投资这一合理的质疑时,他则几乎将此问题绕开而不答。这次他发难,主要是因为奥巴马的就职讲演谈到这场危机的“集体责任”,即全民都逃避了作出艰难的选择。克鲁格曼则攻击说:现在的经济危机,只是少数华尔街的人的责任,怎么能让老百姓负责?

  这充分体现了保守派和自由派意识形态上的分野。保守派强调个人的责任,自由派则强调个人的权利,甚至不惜把不是权利的东西当成权利。比如这次经济危机的导火索是房地产的次贷问题。对此,华尔街当然有责任。但是,一个巴掌拍不响。次贷之所以形成祸害,主要是因为大量的普通老百姓把拥有超出自己支付能力的住房当成自己的权利,在只有4万美元年收入、5000美元的存款情况下,竟购买了五十万美元的住房。现在这50万的住房价格已经跌到了40万以下,房主欠银行的钱还有40多万。在这种情况下,房主干脆赖账:房子不要,账也不还了。贷给这些人钱的银行,当然是自作自受。但是,这些没头没脑地消费、欠钱不还的人,难道一点责任没有吗?把大多数人开脱,把经济危机归罪于“少数人”,这就像美国人因为自己超前消费、欠债过多而破产后反而怪罪中国人储蓄太多、借给自己太多钱一样荒唐。

  奥巴马强调集体责任,摆脱了左翼的狭隘意识形态,也表示他认识到共和党政治哲学中的可取之处。这本是个进步。如果能把这样的理性贯彻到其政策之中,则大有成功的可能。但是,他这样做,首先必须抵抗克鲁格曼这类屁股决定大脑的左翼。如今共和党溃不成军,难以对民主党形成有效的制衡。奥巴马政府则民气甚旺,似乎秉承天命。这种时刻,最大的诱惑,也是最容易犯的错误,就是急剧左转。
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