Is Putin Making Concessions to One-Up the United States?

Published in Sohu
(China) on 27 June 2013
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Qi Luo. Edited by .
Edited by Gillian Palmer
Edward Snowden is stirring U.S.-Russian relations. The U.S. government expressed its dissatisfaction to Russia, but the Russian government has maintained a tough stance. Russian President Vladimir Putin made a statement on [June] 25, saying Russian Intelligence Services have had no contact with Snowden and that he wanted Snowden to leave Russia immediately.

From the statement, we could tell that Putin still did not want the Snowden incident to make a big impact on U.S.-Russian relations. However, conceding to the United States was definitely not Putin's diplomatic style. Putin later made it clear that he refused to return Snowden to the United States.

Russia State Duma International Affairs Committee Chairman Alexei Pushkov even said that America's threats would only bring Russia and China closer.

Although Putin showed a tough stance to the United States, he hoped Snowden would leave Russia as soon as possible. Some think Putin is making concessions in order to gain advantages in the competition with the United States.

Russia first showed it had nothing to do with the Snowden scandal, which put itself in an advantageous position. Geographically, Snowden is in Moscow, which determines Russia's control over the current situation. The United States cannot arrest anyone in the transit zone of an airport in Moscow. Legally, Snowden is not in Russian territory, which gives the U.S. no legal basis for accusing Russia.

In other words, Russia is in the dominant position regarding the Snowden incident. Russia could take one step in to “attack” — cooperate with Snowden extensively at any time — or take one step back to defend — expel Snowden, leaving the U.S. nothing to say.

This might be the reason why Russia changed its high-profile diplomatic style into a calm one since Snowden's arrival at Moscow.

It is difficult to predict at this point where Snowden will eventually end up. But he has become an important bargaining chip for the "anti-U.S." campaign as Russia wrestles with the U.S. Snowden's fate may already be beyond his control.


斯诺登正在搅动着美俄关系,美国政府向俄罗斯表达不满,但俄罗斯政府却以强硬表态回应。俄罗斯总统普京25日的表态,一是撇清了与斯诺登的关系,普京说俄罗斯情报部门和斯诺登没有联系,同时也希望斯诺登尽快离开莫斯科。

从这点可以看出,普京还是不希望斯诺登事件对俄美关系造成太大影响。但是,向美国退让绝对不是普京的外交风格,所以普京随后又明确表示拒绝向美国交人。

俄罗斯国家杜马(议会下院)国际事务委员会主席普什科夫甚至还表示,美国的威胁只能让俄中两国走得更近。

俄罗斯对美强硬的同时,也表示希望斯诺登尽快离开俄罗斯。外界有这样一个观点,那就是普京以退为进,与美国角力。

俄罗斯首先撇清了与斯诺登的关系,也就让自己处于一个有利位置。目前,斯诺登身在地理范畴上的莫斯科,这就决定了俄罗斯对当前局势拥有控制权,美国也不可能在莫斯科机场国际中转区强行抓人。但是斯诺登在法律范畴上又不在俄罗斯境内,因此美国也不可能有指责俄罗斯的法律基础。

换句话说,俄罗斯现在在斯诺登事件上是占据了主动,进可攻:可以随时与斯诺登展开全方位合作;退可守:可以随时驱逐斯诺登,让美国无话可说。

这也很可能就是俄罗斯在斯诺登抵达莫斯科以后,一改往日积极高调的外交作风,反而显得十分淡定沉稳的原因了。

斯诺登最终会逃往何方,暂时还难以断定。不过他已经成为“反美阵营”与美国角力的重要筹码,斯诺登的命运也许早已经不在自己的掌握当中。
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