Trump Happens Before the End of the World. The Political World
Memo to what will be remembered as modern U.S. democracy: The world’s number one leader will face a deeply rebuilt political system.
Historians know that there are different cyclical and seemingly disparate events. One can follow the history of nations by periods in time: birth, maturation, prime of life, adulthood, old age and decay. Each period has its turning points after which it becomes clear whether a country will progress or fall behind. The United States, as evidenced by the current presidential debates, stands exactly at a crucial crossroad. And both ways are unattractive. However, American history provides the answer: It still can be fixed.
The 2016 Presidential Election Is a Clown Parade
Frankly speaking, it was hard to imagine that Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump would become the two main candidates in the presidential election. Regarding the first real woman candidate for president, there were doubts about her family (with concerns that she would be a “double-president” having her husband in the background) and about the absence of any serious success as secretary of state. And generally speaking, Clinton’s fellow Democrats, John Kerry and Joe Biden, looked far more prepared. Somehow this nomination seemed very artificial, as if the Wall Street elite were disappointed in Barack Obama and decided that it had been a mistake to give so much freedom to the left-leaning Democratic Party. But now, there is no reason to worry because, as it is being said, Clinton is “one of us.” She is accustomed to the reality of a shark's business world and is not concerned with ethical complexities.
Regarding Trump there is, in general, his successful situation that looked like evidence not only of a gap within his party, but of a real gulf between ordinary Republican voters (the majority of which are white men from rural America) and the party elite. The parties did not bother to nominate anyone equal to, or at least comparable to, figures like John Kennedy, Ronald Reagan or even Bill Clinton, something for which both parties national committees may suffer unknown negative consequences and may want to think about seriously while it’s still not too late.
So, here is what this presidential campaign has established: Against the background of Obama’s lack of any convincing domestic achievements and his failure with regard to ambitious projects abroad, the candidates are forced to dig among each other’s dirty laundry. Here is where Clinton’s age and health came in handy, then Trump's naked wife and the "swing" from a fear of Putin to an obsession with Putin, depending on where the candidates appear.
The American Choice: Not Who Is the Best, But Who Isn’t the Worst?
It’s not that surprising, but it simply isn’t serious, not to say shameful. In fact, the same Republicans had an unexpected surprise: multi-billionaire Michael Bloomberg (someone not at Trump’s level with his wretched $4 million, but Bloomberg who is worth $36 million). Maybe Bloomberg was not a fit because he’s of retirement age, but how does that explain the young and handsome Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Paul Ryan, who ran as Mitt Romney’s vice-presidential running mate in 2012? In fact, even then this young neoconservative spoke tough specifically about Russia and Putin, and was considered a real ideological heir not only to Sen. John McCain, but also to Reagan.
Concerning the Democrats, the alternative to Clinton was Bernie Sanders who wasn't a failure, as he managed to achieve what was almost impossible, and he actually used the same slogan that Obama used eight years ago. And it followed logically that, even at 74 (!) years of age, he was able to consolidate a youthful and socially discontented electorate due to the fact that Obama won over these voters during his campaign. But Sanders was cleverly “removed” from the race by simply cutting off the channels of financing.
The 2016 presidential race in America has become the election of the transitional period. If, in 2008, the U.S. together with the century’s hero, John McCain, and McCain’s defeat said goodbye to the 20th century then in 2012, Obama’s victory of hope and his ability to reach a new level of quality in everything overcame the unexpected and traditional nomination of Romney. It was a victory of hope for the better, the ability to reach a new level of quality in everything (for Obama) over predictability and tradition (for Romney). Currently, it’s a choice between negatives: not who is the best, but who isn’t the worst. This is proof that the American political system and its history is entering a new dialectical orbit.
Americans Do It Once Every 100 Years
Historical fact: Every 100 years in the course of American policy, the U.S. experiences a substantial transformation and, practically speaking so far, it has occurred successfully.
The first two parties in the United States were the Federalists and the Democratic-Republicans. Founders of the both parties were fathers of their country: Alexander Hamilton and John Adams, Thomas Jefferson and James Madison. In 1816, the Federalists suffered a crushing defeat in the elections after which the first party of the young U.S. never recovered, and a few years later it left the political scene. This Federalist disaster paved the way for the formation of the political party system in America for the next century.
In the first decade of the 20th century, political life was agitated as well in the United States. The two main parties had already formed: The Republican Party (which was then considered more liberal, by the way) and the Democratic Party (which, oddly, was more conservative). And at the beginning of the last century, Theodore Roosevelt, a Republican, was president. I must say that the two terms of the first Roosevelt (not to be confused with Franklin Delano Roosevelt, his familiar relative who sat in a wheelchair at the Yalta Conference) was a construction of that modern America, which in a few years, due to World War I, made it a creditor around the world. Roosevelt’s reforms and policies became the foundation upon which the U.S. entered the world arena as an undisputed leader. Roosevelt’s two presidential terms ended, and at that time there were no term limits on serving as president. Therefore, American leaders applied the beliefs of George Washington, who gave up power after eight years as president. But then Roosevelt lost the nomination (not quite honestly, by the way) to the pale politician William Taft, who was elected president. Four years later, Roosevelt announced his candidacy again for president; Taft, during his administration, had wiped out all of Roosevelt and the Republican Party’s achievements, while Roosevelt had been stalled by intrigues and confrontation with Congress. But the party again denied Theodore Roosevelt, and he ran for president in 1912 as a member of the Progressive Party, which he founded. The takeaway here is the fact that while the elections were won by Democrat Woodrow Wilson as president, and other members of the Progressive Party and many supporters of Theodore Roosevelt (but not himself) in 1916, the presidency went to the Democrats. The program that the Progressive Party included was in a new democratic platform that is now part of a liberal political force in America, passing the flag of conservatives to the Republicans. Such a metamorphosis.
If Not Martians, Then Clinton
The current U.S. election again symbolizes a crossroads for the entire American political system. By giving Trump a chance to run for president, someone who has shown the world a savage incompetence, a reactionary nature, racial and sexual intolerance, and sheer ignorance and lack of any moral standards, demonstrating, ultimately, faith only in his own messianism and narcissism, the Republican Party has proved capable of causing the same crisis within the political system that took place a century ago and which has now moved the party to a state of collapse. Trump is a quite poor but dangerous copy of the same right-wing kind of populists like Huey Long in the ‘30s or Barry Goldwater in the ‘60s. American society has always found an antidote for this. Now, for example, in order for American society to realize the extent of the threat, Trump literally had to look under someone’s skirt. If this is not degradation, then what is?
Where is the exit? Like 100 years ago, the exit will be in a self-purge of the Republican Party after the almost inevitable defeat that will happen in early November. Suppose after Trump makes up with his party and he is allowed a place in American politics (among the same idiots as himself), let him prove that he can be a politician for the long run and not just a greasy showman as he has been in this brief election campaign. Otherwise, another party split is guaranteed to take place and the same ideological faction that directly echoes former presidents Ronald Reagan and Dwight Eisenhower will leave the Republican Party.
By the way, Democrats may also separate from the very left-leaning section of the party that intensified under Obama and launched the older Sanders from its ranks. Using our analogy, he is a direct descendant of Eugene Debs, the leader of the Socialist Party of America that fought for the presidency against Theodore Roosevelt, Taft and Wilson in the early 20th century and won 10 percent of the U.S. vote.
Restructuring the party system in the U.S. will only benefit the country because leaving everything as it is now is a mistake. There has never been a time when both major presidential candidates did not at least have the moral authority of the voters. And this is what is happening now.
All of these burdens, if nothing extraordinary occurs – like, say, a Martian landing – will be Hillary Clinton’s to handle.
By analogy to a century ago, the winner of the fateful election, Democrat Woodrow Wilson, described the essence of his administration as a "crusade for democracy." Wilson quite successfully fulfilled this goal, becoming the draftsman of U.S. leadership and international relations after World War I. Of course, Clinton is unlikely to reach such peaks, but the attempt to restart the political system and carry at least a "campaign for the preservation of democracy" in the country could be her great achievement.
Historians know that there are different cyclical and seemingly disparate events. One can follow the history of nations by periods in time: birth, maturation, prime of life, adulthood, old age and decay. Each period has its turning points after which it becomes clear whether a country will progress or fall behind. The United States, as evidenced by the current presidential debates, stands exactly at a crucial crossroad. And both ways are unattractive. However, American history provides the answer: It still can be fixed.
The 2016 Presidential Election Is a Clown Parade
Frankly speaking, it was hard to imagine that Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump would become the two main candidates in the presidential election. Regarding the first real woman candidate for president, there were doubts about her family (with concerns that she would be a “double-president” having her husband in the background) and about the absence of any serious success as secretary of state. And generally speaking, Clinton’s fellow Democrats, John Kerry and Joe Biden, looked far more prepared. Somehow this nomination seemed very artificial, as if the Wall Street elite were disappointed in Barack Obama and decided that it had been a mistake to give so much freedom to the left-leaning Democratic Party. But now, there is no reason to worry because, as it is being said, Clinton is “one of us.” She is accustomed to the reality of a shark's business world and is not concerned with ethical complexities.
Regarding Trump there is, in general, his successful situation that looked like evidence not only of a gap within his party, but of a real gulf between ordinary Republican voters (the majority of which are white men from rural America) and the party elite. The parties did not bother to nominate anyone equal to, or at least comparable to, figures like John Kennedy, Ronald Reagan or even Bill Clinton, something for which both parties national committees may suffer unknown negative consequences and may want to think about seriously while it’s still not too late.
So, here is what this presidential campaign has established: Against the background of Obama’s lack of any convincing domestic achievements and his failure with regard to ambitious projects abroad, the candidates are forced to dig among each other’s dirty laundry. Here is where Clinton’s age and health came in handy, then Trump's naked wife and the "swing" from a fear of Putin to an obsession with Putin, depending on where the candidates appear.
The American Choice: Not Who Is the Best, But Who Isn’t the Worst?
It’s not that surprising, but it simply isn’t serious, not to say shameful. In fact, the same Republicans had an unexpected surprise: multi-billionaire Michael Bloomberg (someone not at Trump’s level with his wretched $4 million, but Bloomberg who is worth $36 million). Maybe Bloomberg was not a fit because he’s of retirement age, but how does that explain the young and handsome Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Paul Ryan, who ran as Mitt Romney’s vice-presidential running mate in 2012? In fact, even then this young neoconservative spoke tough specifically about Russia and Putin, and was considered a real ideological heir not only to Sen. John McCain, but also to Reagan.
Concerning the Democrats, the alternative to Clinton was Bernie Sanders who wasn't a failure, as he managed to achieve what was almost impossible, and he actually used the same slogan that Obama used eight years ago. And it followed logically that, even at 74 (!) years of age, he was able to consolidate a youthful and socially discontented electorate due to the fact that Obama won over these voters during his campaign. But Sanders was cleverly “removed” from the race by simply cutting off the channels of financing.
The 2016 presidential race in America has become the election of the transitional period. If, in 2008, the U.S. together with the century’s hero, John McCain, and McCain’s defeat said goodbye to the 20th century then in 2012, Obama’s victory of hope and his ability to reach a new level of quality in everything overcame the unexpected and traditional nomination of Romney. It was a victory of hope for the better, the ability to reach a new level of quality in everything (for Obama) over predictability and tradition (for Romney). Currently, it’s a choice between negatives: not who is the best, but who isn’t the worst. This is proof that the American political system and its history is entering a new dialectical orbit.
Americans Do It Once Every 100 Years
Historical fact: Every 100 years in the course of American policy, the U.S. experiences a substantial transformation and, practically speaking so far, it has occurred successfully.
The first two parties in the United States were the Federalists and the Democratic-Republicans. Founders of the both parties were fathers of their country: Alexander Hamilton and John Adams, Thomas Jefferson and James Madison. In 1816, the Federalists suffered a crushing defeat in the elections after which the first party of the young U.S. never recovered, and a few years later it left the political scene. This Federalist disaster paved the way for the formation of the political party system in America for the next century.
In the first decade of the 20th century, political life was agitated as well in the United States. The two main parties had already formed: The Republican Party (which was then considered more liberal, by the way) and the Democratic Party (which, oddly, was more conservative). And at the beginning of the last century, Theodore Roosevelt, a Republican, was president. I must say that the two terms of the first Roosevelt (not to be confused with Franklin Delano Roosevelt, his familiar relative who sat in a wheelchair at the Yalta Conference) was a construction of that modern America, which in a few years, due to World War I, made it a creditor around the world. Roosevelt’s reforms and policies became the foundation upon which the U.S. entered the world arena as an undisputed leader. Roosevelt’s two presidential terms ended, and at that time there were no term limits on serving as president. Therefore, American leaders applied the beliefs of George Washington, who gave up power after eight years as president. But then Roosevelt lost the nomination (not quite honestly, by the way) to the pale politician William Taft, who was elected president. Four years later, Roosevelt announced his candidacy again for president; Taft, during his administration, had wiped out all of Roosevelt and the Republican Party’s achievements, while Roosevelt had been stalled by intrigues and confrontation with Congress. But the party again denied Theodore Roosevelt, and he ran for president in 1912 as a member of the Progressive Party, which he founded. The takeaway here is the fact that while the elections were won by Democrat Woodrow Wilson as president, and other members of the Progressive Party and many supporters of Theodore Roosevelt (but not himself) in 1916, the presidency went to the Democrats. The program that the Progressive Party included was in a new democratic platform that is now part of a liberal political force in America, passing the flag of conservatives to the Republicans. Such a metamorphosis.
If Not Martians, Then Clinton
The current U.S. election again symbolizes a crossroads for the entire American political system. By giving Trump a chance to run for president, someone who has shown the world a savage incompetence, a reactionary nature, racial and sexual intolerance, and sheer ignorance and lack of any moral standards, demonstrating, ultimately, faith only in his own messianism and narcissism, the Republican Party has proved capable of causing the same crisis within the political system that took place a century ago and which has now moved the party to a state of collapse. Trump is a quite poor but dangerous copy of the same right-wing kind of populists like Huey Long in the ‘30s or Barry Goldwater in the ‘60s. American society has always found an antidote for this. Now, for example, in order for American society to realize the extent of the threat, Trump literally had to look under someone’s skirt. If this is not degradation, then what is?
Where is the exit? Like 100 years ago, the exit will be in a self-purge of the Republican Party after the almost inevitable defeat that will happen in early November. Suppose after Trump makes up with his party and he is allowed a place in American politics (among the same idiots as himself), let him prove that he can be a politician for the long run and not just a greasy showman as he has been in this brief election campaign. Otherwise, another party split is guaranteed to take place and the same ideological faction that directly echoes former presidents Ronald Reagan and Dwight Eisenhower will leave the Republican Party.
By the way, Democrats may also separate from the very left-leaning section of the party that intensified under Obama and launched the older Sanders from its ranks. Using our analogy, he is a direct descendant of Eugene Debs, the leader of the Socialist Party of America that fought for the presidency against Theodore Roosevelt, Taft and Wilson in the early 20th century and won 10 percent of the U.S. vote.
Restructuring the party system in the U.S. will only benefit the country because leaving everything as it is now is a mistake. There has never been a time when both major presidential candidates did not at least have the moral authority of the voters. And this is what is happening now.
All of these burdens, if nothing extraordinary occurs – like, say, a Martian landing – will be Hillary Clinton’s to handle.
By analogy to a century ago, the winner of the fateful election, Democrat Woodrow Wilson, described the essence of his administration as a "crusade for democracy." Wilson quite successfully fulfilled this goal, becoming the draftsman of U.S. leadership and international relations after World War I. Of course, Clinton is unlikely to reach such peaks, but the attempt to restart the political system and carry at least a "campaign for the preservation of democracy" in the country could be her great achievement.
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