Bewilderment and Taking Advantage of Trump’s Diplomacy

Published in Nikkei
(Japan) on 26 June 2017
by Yuzo Waki (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Deborah Chapin. Edited by Laurence Bouvard.
It has been over five months since the inauguration of the Trump administration. With instances such as the departure from the Paris climate agreement, which deals with global climate change, President Trump has bewildered the world. The values and interests of the United States no longer match those of Europe, and thus, there is a growing distance between them. On the other hand, in the Middle East, there are moves to use Trump to justify its own diplomacy. The decision by countries such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt to sever ties with Qatar would be an example of such actions.

Discord in U.S.-European relations is tied to fluctuations in the course of the world. Along with the amplified friction caused by Trump diplomacy, we need to be aware of the risks when U.S. allies pursue their own diplomatic routes.

What are the features of President Trump’s ideology and conduct?

Concerning international relations, his interests lie in calculating how the United States profits or loses. He tends to think about securing safety by the merits of military power and neglects soft powers like philosophy and values. Because he communicates solely through Twitter, where the number of characters is limited, he ignores the relationship and mutual influence of each political measure and does not mind if there is no consistency in his policies overall. He listens well to what he is told but is easily influenced by whatever opinion he has just heard.

Chairman Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund, posted on the social media website LinkedIn: “When faced with the choices between what's good for the whole and what's good for the part, and between harmony and conflict, he has a strong tendency to choose the part and conflict.” The part Trump prefers is support of the domestic core.

At the NATO summit on May 25, first-time participant President Trump did not venture to speak about the United States’ participation in the defense collective and emphasized the message that nations of Europe, who spend little on defense, should properly pay for the sake of U.S. taxpayers. European countries were confused by this. Just beforehand, Defense Secretary Mattis had attended the defense ministers’ meeting where each country reaffirmed the standard of defense spending at 2 percent of the gross domestic product, an action plan and an agreement of a goal to aim for that had already been made.

“I am doing my best for you” is the impression Trump gives to his domestic supporters, not the world. That is his style of diplomacy.

The Group of Seven leading industrial nations' meeting in Italy continued from there, where the discussion on global warming broke down between the United States and the six other countries. It was reported that Trump’s understanding of the global warming issue had deepened after taking office. However, as if to curb the assertions of those, such as German Chancellor Merkel, who promote the Paris accord, Trump complained that environmental restrictions would harm U.S. coal miners.

During an election rally in Munich after the G-7 summit, Chancellor Merkel remarked that the era in which other countries could be completely relied on is over.

Triggered by growing bewilderment, disappointment and opposition toward the U.S. administration, a different movement is sprouting in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt are breaking off with Qatar. The countries that broke off and Qatar are all strategically important Middle Eastern allies for the United States.

According to the U.S. State Department, it received notice from the United Arab Emirates just before ties were broken off with Qatar, but it was not contacted concerning Saudi Arabia’s diplomatic route. However, Saudi Arabia’s King Salman is having discussions with President Trump over the telephone.

Right after the severing of relations, Trump tweeted, “During my recent trip to the Middle East I stated that there can no longer be funding of Radical Ideology. Leaders pointed to Qatar — look!” He accepted and supported the stance of those siding with Saudi Arabia without fully understanding it.

During the Saudi Arabia visit on May 21, President Trump emphasized to the leaders that their common threats are Iran and Islamic extremists. Tamim, the leader of Qatar, was also at that meeting. However, it is believed that in private talks with Trump, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Bahrain’s leaders warned of Qatar’s faults, such as support for the Muslim Brotherhood and a stance of reconciliation with Iran.

By winning favor with Trump, who was supposed to simplify the complicated affairs of the Middle East, Saudi Arabia and the other countries were able to constrict Qatar, which they already opposed. This made the U.S. Department of Defense and the State Department panic. Qatar has the largest U.S. military base in the Middle East and fissures between Middle Eastern allies will be a hindrance to U.S. Middle Eastern diplomacy.

On the 20th, two weeks after the severance, the U.S. State Department commented that they did not know what the countries siding with Saudi Arabia wanted. The next day, Mohammad bin Salman, who is thought of as someone who will only have his own way in diplomacy, was promoted to the position of crown prince. The demands that those with Saudi Arabia issued last weekend include the shutdown of a television network that is critical of the surrounding countries and compensation for each country, which would be difficult conditions for Qatar to accept. There is no sign of conflict resolution.

Another diplomatic matter for the United States is the Korean Peninsula and not just the threat of North Korea. A serious problem for the president to consider is that the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, which was installed in South Korea by the United States military, was suspended from operations by the Moon Jae-in administration. The fissure in the U.S.-Korean alliance is deep.

Some in South Korea argue that the country should distance itself from the United States and look for a way to reinforce a cooperative relationship with China, using Chancellor Merkel’s statement as a valid reason to do so. Just like that, ripples are spreading out in a chain reaction to Trump’s diplomacy.


米国でトランプ政権が発足してから5カ月あまり。地球温暖化に対応するパリ協定からの離脱表明など、トランプ大統領は世界を困惑させてきた。米政権と価値観や利害が一致しなくなった欧州では、米国離れの空気も広がる。一方、中東では、自国の外交の正当化にトランプ大統領を利用しようとする動きもある。サウジアラビア、アラブ首長国連邦(UAE)、エジプトなどがカタールと断交したのは、その典型だろう。
 米欧同盟のきしみは、世界の秩序の揺らぎにつながる。トランプ外交による摩擦の増幅と並行して、米国の同盟国が独自の外交路線を追求する際のリスクも要注意だ。
 トランプ大統領の発想や言動の特徴は何か。
 国際関係で、米国の負担と受益の損得勘定にこだわる。安全保障を軍事力の優劣で考え、理念や価値観などソフトパワーを軽視しがちだ。字数の限られるツイッターでもっぱら発信するため、個々の政策の連関や相互の影響を無視し、政策全体の整合性がなくても気にしない。相手の話をよく聞くが、直前に聞いた意見に影響されやすい。
 世界最大のヘッジファンド運営会社ブリッジウォーター・アソシエーツのレイ・ダリオ会長は、トランプ大統領についてソーシャル・メディアのリンクトインに、こう投稿した。「全体のために良いか一部のために良いか、調和か対立かの選択を迫られたときに、彼は『一部』と『対立』を選ぶ傾向が強い」。トランプ氏が優先する「一部」とは国内のコアの支持層だ。
 5月25日の北大西洋条約機構(NATO)首脳会議。初参加したトランプ大統領は集団防衛への米国の関与をあえて明言せず、「米国の納税者のために、国防費の支出が少ない欧州の加盟国にちゃんと費用を払わせる」というメッセージに力点を置いた。
 欧州諸国は、これに困惑した。事前にマティス米国防長官が出席した国防相会議で、各国は国内総生産(GDP)の2%という国防支出の目安を再確認し、行動計画をつくって達成をめざす合意がすでにできていたからだ。
 世界にメッセージを発するのではなく、国内の支持者に「私はあなたたちのために頑張っている」と印象づける。それがトランプ流の外交だ。
 NATO首脳会議に続きイタリアで開いたG7首脳会議では、地球温暖化への対応で米国と他の6カ国が割れた。「トランプ大統領も就任後は地球温暖化問題について認識を深めている」という報道もあったが、実際にはパリ協定推進を説くメルケル・ドイツ首相らの発言を遮るように、「米国の炭鉱労働者が打撃を受ける」と大統領は叫んだ。
 メルケル首相はG7サミット後のミュンヘン遊説で「われわれが他国を完全に頼りにできた時代は終わりつつある」と語っている。
 米政権への困惑と失望、反発が広がったときに、中東では別の動きが噴き出した。サウジ、UAE、バーレーン、エジプトによる、対カタール断交だ。断交した側の国も、断交されたカタールも、米国にとって戦略的に重要な中東での同盟国である。
 米国務省によると、断交について直前にUAEから知らせを受けたが、サウジから外交ルートでの連絡はなかったようだ。ただし、サルマン・サウジ国王はトランプ大統領と電話で話し合っている。
 大統領は断交直後に「サウジ訪問の成果が出ているとわかってうれしい」「過激派への資金提供には強い対応を取る。中東の指導者たちはカタールを名指ししていた」とツイートした。サウジなどの言い分を丸のみして、断交を支持したと受け止められた。
 5月21日、サウジ訪問中のトランプ大統領はアラブ諸国の首脳らを前に「共通の脅威はイランと過激派」と強調した。この会合にはカタールのタミム首長も出席していた。だが、サウジ、UAE、エジプト、バーレーンの首脳はトランプ氏との個別会談で、各国が警戒するムスリム同胞団への支援や、イランへの融和的な姿勢など、カタールの非を訴えたとみられている。
 中東の複雑な情勢を単純化するトランプ大統領を取り込んで、サウジなどがかねて対立していたカタールの締め上げに動いた。これにあわてたのが、米国の国防総省や国務省だ。カタールには中東で最大の米軍基地があるし、中東での同盟国間の亀裂は米国の中東外交の障害になる。
 米国務省は20日、断交から2週間たつのにサウジなどが何を求めているのか「わけがわからない」とコメントした。その翌日、サウジでは「我を通す外交」を主導したとみられるムハンマド・ビン・サルマン副皇太子が皇太子に昇格した。先週末に報じられたサウジなどの要求は、周辺国政府に批判的な衛星テレビ局の閉鎖や各国への賠償など、カタール側が受け入れ難い項目が目立つ。対立収拾の兆しは見えない。
 米国の外交対応のもう一つの焦点は朝鮮半島だ。北朝鮮の脅威だけではない。米軍が韓国に設置した地上配備型ミサイル迎撃システム(THAAD)が文在寅政権の“待った”により稼働できない問題を大統領も重大視している。米韓同盟の亀裂は深い。
 韓国では、メルケル独首相の発言を我田引水して、米国と距離を置き、中国との連携強化を探ろうとする論調も出てきた。トランプ外交へのリアクションの連鎖では、こういう波紋の広がり方もある。
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