Nuclear Agreement in Crisis: Iran Needs Self-Restraint

Published in Asahi Shimbun
(Japan) on 6 July 2019
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Eric Stimson. Edited by Patricia Simoni.

 

 

Since antiquity, Iran has supported myriad dynasties and a rich civilization, and to this day it has a strong identity. To safeguard that dignity, it should continue to exercise the highest level of restraint.

The international agreement on Iran’s nuclear development is under more and more threat. Iran abided by the deal even after America’s unilateral withdrawal, but it has gradually begun to withdraw.

The Iranian economy is in dire straits due to American sanctions. If these are not alleviated by July 7, Iran will expand its noncompliance with the agreement’s terms.

Already this month, Iran has surpassed its limit for storage of low enriched uranium. It has announced that starting on July 7, it will enrich uranium above the regulated limit.

Enriching uranium beyond the level needed for nuclear fuel is connected with nuclear weapon development. This would bring Iran and the world to the brink of catastrophe. It dare not take this step.

Given the hard-liners in the Donald Trump administration in the U.S., this could become grounds for the use of force. It is worrisome that a chain reaction could begin, leading to an attack by Israel or nuclear development by Saudi Arabia.

The nuclear deal reached four years ago exchanged limitations on nuclear development for economic sanctions relief. Because America’s withdrawal last year prompted a renewal of these sanctions, Iran’s options—like exporting oil, its lifeline—have narrowed.

The blame for these developments would first and foremost fall on America. The crisis was born out of the recklessness of the Trump administration, which hates international cooperation, and therefore global society has refrained from criticizing Iran.

Yet, if Iran plunges ahead with dangerous nuclear development, the international conversation will likely shift. Wringing out concessions with threats and pressure is a favorite tactic of the Trump administration, but if Iran responds similarly, the fear of a clash that nobody desires would heighten even more.

The five countries remaining in the nuclear agreement (Britain, Germany, France, China and Russia) must support the Iranian economy and hurry with measures that safeguard against a worsening of the situation.

Last month, Britain, Germany and France launched an organization to allow Iran to continue trade. But the results of this cannot be deemed sufficient. This month, further cabinet-level meetings among the countries concerned were arranged.

Currently, Iran and Europe are united in their wish to abide by the nuclear pact. Instability in the Middle East is a global threat, and China and Russia should join Europe in strengthening their cooperation.

While Iranian President Hassan Rouhani explained that he was “enriching only as much as necessary,” Trump responded, “[Threats] can come back to bite you like nobody has been bitten before,” increasing the tension.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who visited Iran last month, cannot just get by with expressing fear, either. He should come to an close mutual understanding with America, Iran and Europe and aim for a relaxation of tensions.



古代から多彩な王朝が栄え、豊かな文明を育んだイランは、いまなお存在感が大きい。その尊厳を守るためにも、最大限の自制を続けるべきだ。

 イランの核開発をめぐる国際合意が、いよいよ危うくなってきた。米国の一方的な離脱後も順守してきたイランが、少しずつ合意から逸脱し始めた。

 イランの経済は、米国の制裁で苦境にある。今月7日までに改善がなければ、合意の履行停止を広げるとしていた。

 すでに今月に入り低濃縮ウランの貯蔵量が上限を超えた。さらに期限の7日からは、ウランの濃縮度を規制以上の高さにすると予告した。

 原発燃料レベルを超えて濃縮を進めれば、最終的には核兵器の開発につながる。それはイランと世界を破局に近づける。絶対に踏み越えてはならない。

 米トランプ政権は強硬派を抱えており、武力行使の口実になりかねない。イスラエルによる攻撃や、サウジアラビアなどでの核開発の連鎖が広がることも心配される。

 4年前にできたこの合意は、核開発の制限の見返りに、経済制裁を緩める内容だ。米国が昨年の離脱で制裁を再開させたため、イランは生命線である原油輸出などの道が狭まった。

 その経緯から本来、責任を問われるべきはまず米国である。国際的な協調を嫌うトランプ政権の暴走が生み出した危機であり、そのため国際社会もイランへの批判は控えてきた。

 だが、危うい核開発に突き進めば、国際世論の風向きは変わるだろう。脅しや圧力で譲歩を迫るのはトランプ政権のよく使う手段だが、イランが同じように対抗すれば、誰も望まぬ衝突の恐れが一層高まる。

 核合意の残る署名国である英独仏中ロの5カ国は、イランの経済を支え、事態の悪化を防ぐ手立てを急がねばなるまい。

 英独仏は先月、イランが貿易を続けるための新たな組織を稼働させた。だが、その効果は十分とはいえない。今月はさらに関係国の閣僚級会合が開かれることが決まっている。

 いまのところ、イランも欧州も核合意を維持したい立場では一致している。中東の不安定化は世界にとっての脅威であり、欧州だけでなく、中国とロシアも協調を強めるべきだ。

 イランのロハニ大統領が「必要なだけ濃縮を高める」と表明すると、トランプ氏は「手痛いしっぺ返しをくらうだろう」と応じ、緊張が高まっている。

 先月イランを訪ねた安倍首相も、懸念の表明だけではすまされない。米国、イラン、欧州などと緊密に意思の疎通を図り、緊張の緩和をめざすべきだ。
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