The Surge in Afghanistan: Baffled at How to Deter Terrorism

Published in Tokyo Shimbun
(Japan) on 3 December 2009
by No Author Given (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Haitham Jendoubi. Edited by .

Edited by Joanne Hanrahan

President Obama has unveiled his new strategy in Afghanistan. It is an exit strategy that confronts head-on the financial strictures that the United States finds itself in, but is it really able to brush away the latent fear of terrorism that has spread to every corner of the world?

Obama’s speech was remarkable for its frank statement of the financial difficulties the United States has run up
against, the limits on U.S. involvement in rebuilding Afghanistan, and the urgency of nuclear non-proliferation.

“The nation I’m most interested in building is our own,” Obama said. “Our prosperity provides a foundation for our power. It pays for our military.” The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have already cost nearly a trillion dollars, and this surge will require an additional $30 billion. Obama’s reference to the United States’ tight budget was effectively a declaration that the country neither wants nor can afford an endless military presence.

He also emphasized the danger of nuclear weapons falling into the hands of Islamic extremists. “We know that al-Qaida and other extremists seek nuclear weapons.” This highlights the seriousness of the threat posed by the nuclear weapons belonging to Pakistan (where many terrorists are believed to lurk).

Amid this reality, Obama defined the Afghan war’s goal as “disrupting, dismantling, and defeating al-Qaida” and laid out a troop surge of 30,000 men and a withdrawal beginning in 2011. By that time, he wants to firm up Afghanistan’s security forces and secure its capacity to administer itself. However, he cannot write off corruption, the illegal drug trade, and popular Afghan distrust of the Karzai administration. The cooperation of the United Nations and the international community is indispensable.

While Japan has announced $5 billion in funds—and has provided for civilian aid including occupational training for insurrectionist Taliban forces—this aid is predicated on stability being promoted on the ground.

This new strategy in Afghanistan depends on whether Islamic fundamentalists succeed in isolating themselves, as well as whether there will be a “dialogue with Islam,” on which Middle East peace depends. However, both are difficult problems that will take time.

The recent shooting of fellow officers by a military doctor of Arab descent on a Texas base probably influenced Obama’s decision to speak before a military academy. The incident symbolizes the deep wound inflicted on American society by the eight-year-long Afghan war.

A withdrawal would be labeled a retreat by extremists and would only invigorate terrorist organizations. Can a stable order be established that is not in danger of relapsing into chaos? Time is running out.


アフガン増派 見えぬテロ抑止の道筋
2009年12月3日
 オバマ米大統領が、アフガニスタン新戦略を発表した。米国が置かれた経済的苦境をも率直に語る出口戦略だったが、世界全域に拡大した潜在的なテロへの懸念を払拭(ふっしょく)できただろうか。
 今回のオバマ演説の特徴は、アフガン新戦略を打ち出しながら、自国が陥っている深い経済的苦境、他国の再建関与への限界、核拡散への危機感を率直に語ったことだ。
 「われわれは自国を再建しなければならない」「私たちの力の基盤は繁栄であり、それこそが軍事力を賄っている」。イラクとアフガンですでに戦費は一兆ドルに迫り、今回の作戦で新たに三百億ドルを要する。国の苦しい台所事情に言及したのは、無期限の駐留を続ける意志も経済的ゆとりも米国にはないことを宣言したに等しい。
 イスラム過激派に核兵器が渡る懸念も繰り返し強調した。「アルカイダが核保有をめざしていることは明らかだ。それを使用することをためらわないことも私たちは知っている」。そこには多数のテロリストが潜むとされる隣国パキスタンが保有する核兵器が及ぼす脅威の深刻さがある。
 こうした現状から、オバマ大統領は、アフガン戦争の目的を「アルカイダの破壊、解体、敗北」とし、新たに三万人の兵力増派、二〇一一年の撤退開始を表明した。この間にアフガン政府の治安組織、政権担当能力を確固なものにしたい考えだ。しかし、汚職、麻薬取引など、カルザイ政権に対する不信感はぬぐい得ない。国連、国際社会の協力は欠かせない。
 日本政府は先に五十億ドルに及ぶ資金協力を発表する一方、離脱したタリバン兵の職業訓練など民生支援を打ち出しているが、こうした協力も現地の安定化が促進されてこそ生きる援助だ。
 新戦略の鍵を握るのは、イスラム過激派の孤立化の成否と、中東和平につながる「イスラムとの対話」の促進だが、いずれも時間を要する難問だ。
 今回の演説が陸軍士官学校で行われた背景には、先にテキサス州の基地で起きたアラブ系軍医による同僚兵士に対する銃乱射事件の影響があろう。事件は八年に及ぶアフガン戦争が米国社会に刻んだ深い傷を象徴している。
 撤収は過激派の立場からは敗走と喧伝(けんでん)され、テロ組織を勢いづかせかねない。それまでに逆戻りの懸念のない安定した秩序を確立できるか。時間は限られている。
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