United States May Be Worried Taiwan Independence Forces May Continue To Be in Power

Published in China Review News
(Hong Kong) on 26 Nov 2023
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Stephanie Pan. Edited by Michelle Bisson.
With the breakdown of the blue and white coalition, the three parties of blue, green and white are firmly set for the 2024 Taiwan elections. It is expected that the possibility of the Democratic Progressive Party, which advocates for Taiwan’s independence, continuing to stay in power will greatly increase, along with uncertainty in the development of cross-strait relations. Many people are worried that the situation in the Taiwan Strait will become more serious.

The tension between China and the United States in recent years, as well as the formation and intensification of the Taiwan Strait standoff, is closely related to the separatist activities of Taiwan independence forces on the island and the continued efforts by external forces, such as the United States, to persist in playing the Taiwan card, using Taiwan to contain China. The situation in which each exploits the other, as other Taiwan independence forces “rely on the United States to seek independence” and external forces “use Taiwan to contain China,” will not be easy to change and will be one of the major variables in developing Chinese-U.S. relations.

However, the Taiwan issue is the most important and sensitive issue in Chinese-U.S. relations. At a time when Chinese-U.S. relations are beginning to warm and with the United States now needing China in many respects, they may not want to see the Taiwan issue become a factor undermining the stability and development of Chinese-U.S. relations. This is also the reason why Chinese-U.S. interactions have warmed in the past six months, as the United States is actively seeking to improve the relationship with China, and why Joe Biden reiterated his adherence to the One-China policy, did not express support for Taiwan independence and emphasized the importance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait at the recent meeting between the Chinese and U.S. presidents.

From this perspective, the United States may not be happy to see, or may even be worried about, the Democratic Progressive Party continuing to be in power after Taiwan's 2024 election, as it advocates for Taiwan’s independence.


隨著台灣2024選舉藍白合破裂、藍綠白三足鼎立態勢確立,預期主張台獨的民進黨繼續執政的可能性大增,兩岸關係發展的不確定性隨之增加,許多人擔憂台海局勢更趨嚴峻。

  近些年中美關係的緊張及台海僵局的形成和惡化,與島內台獨勢力的分裂活動及美國等外部勢力“以台制華”不斷加碼打台灣牌密切相關。台獨勢力“倚美謀獨”和外部勢力“以台制華”、兩者互為利用的態勢不易改變,也是未來中美關係發展的重大變數之一。

  但是,台灣問題作為中美關係中最重要、最敏感的問題,在當前中美互動升溫、美國在很多方面也有求於中國的當下,未必願意看到台灣問題成為影響中美關係穩定、發展的主要因素。這也是近半年來中美互動升溫、美國積極謀求改善中美關係以及拜登在不久前的中美元首會晤中重申恪守一個中國政策、不支持台獨、強調台海和平穩定重要性的原因。

  從這個角度來看,美國也未必樂見或者說未必不擔心台灣2024選舉中主張台獨的民進黨繼續執政。
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