Lula and Trump: Nothing Has Changed
Despite all the efforts of Brazilian diplomats who were following clear and direct instructions from President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, relations with the United States under Donald Trump's administration remain unchanged. What is more, they are not exactly at their best right now.
The tariffs imposed by the U.S., which rose from 10% to 50% on Brazilian exports, have not been lowered. They are, as Trump himself explained, “a punishment” for the sanctions imposed by the Supreme Federal Court, Brazil's highest court, on the unhinged and far-right Jair Bolsonaro who presided over the country between 2019 and 2022.
Lula sought direct dialogue with Trump; he at least managed to negotiate, without ceding what he calls “national sovereignty” when it comes to decision-making.
Oh, well.
Domestically, Lula achieved some important victories, but curiously, his popularity, according to the most important and reliable polls, remained stable. There was an expectation that his popularity would increase significantly, thanks to his stance on the measures adopted by Trump, but this did not happen.
Lula is also beginning to prepare for next year's presidential elections. Although he previously stated that he did not know if he would run or not, he is now saying he will. “I will be president until I am 80,” he says with a laugh.* The most interesting thing about the polls is that when the government's achievements are highlighted — rigorous control of inflation, a consistent increase in food distribution projects for those who are most in need and funding for the construction of affordable housing — his overall approval rating remains stable and below 50%. Close, but not quite reaching half.
This paints a strange picture: If nothing changes in the relationship between Lula and Trump, then there will be no significant changes in Lula's approval ratings in Brazilian opinion polls, despite the approval of several of his government's initiatives.
And there is one more peculiar thing: Over half of those surveyed say they believe it is fair for him to run for more than one presidential term. He has no more than 46% approval as president, and yet he has more than 56% support for running for reelection.
Brazil is, in short, something of a strange country.
*Editor's note: This quote cannot be verified, and what is more, Lula is already 80 years old.
The tariffs imposed by the U.S., which rose from 10% to 50% on Brazilian exports, have not been lowered. They are, as Trump himself explained, “a punishment” for the sanctions imposed by the Supreme Federal Court, Brazil's highest court, on the unhinged and far-right Jair Bolsonaro who presided over the country between 2019 and 2022.
Lula sought direct dialogue with Trump; he at least managed to negotiate, without ceding what he calls “national sovereignty” when it comes to decision-making.
Oh, well.
Domestically, Lula achieved some important victories, but curiously, his popularity, according to the most important and reliable polls, remained stable. There was an expectation that his popularity would increase significantly, thanks to his stance on the measures adopted by Trump, but this did not happen.
Lula is also beginning to prepare for next year's presidential elections. Although he previously stated that he did not know if he would run or not, he is now saying he will. “I will be president until I am 80,” he says with a laugh.* The most interesting thing about the polls is that when the government's achievements are highlighted — rigorous control of inflation, a consistent increase in food distribution projects for those who are most in need and funding for the construction of affordable housing — his overall approval rating remains stable and below 50%. Close, but not quite reaching half.
This paints a strange picture: If nothing changes in the relationship between Lula and Trump, then there will be no significant changes in Lula's approval ratings in Brazilian opinion polls, despite the approval of several of his government's initiatives.
And there is one more peculiar thing: Over half of those surveyed say they believe it is fair for him to run for more than one presidential term. He has no more than 46% approval as president, and yet he has more than 56% support for running for reelection.
Brazil is, in short, something of a strange country.
*Editor's note: This quote cannot be verified, and what is more, Lula is already 80 years old.
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